NFL 2014 WEEK FOUR RAW NUMBERS
||4:25 PM ET
||Minnesota +3 (Top play)
|| Vikings ML +135
Thoughts: We’re 3-0 now on Top plays in NFL and 15-8-1 ATS +9.49 Units for the season with smaller plays cashing in nicely as well. Last week, we made a call that the books would put a lot of “gimme’s” out there after a historically excellent opening to the season in weeks 1 and 2 where they totally robbed the public blind with dogs over 3 points going 14-7-0 ATS (66.7%).
Sure enough, in week three publicly backed heavy Favorites over -5 points on the spread tore it up going 5-0-0 (+22.6 ppg, 100%) SU and 4-1 ATS. This week the books are probably thinking, “okay, that’s enough of that” as they pull away the pacifier. Back to business…
First of all, this is our heaviest raw number edge. Here is exactly what the raw numbers are projecting in the ATL / MIN game:
raw: VIKINGS 40.0 – FALCONS 30.4
likely outcome: VIKINGS 41 – FALCONS 31
A pretty clear win for the Vikings. The public doesn’t agree though:
Since back on Sunday, I’ve been watching the public DUMPING their pocketbooks onto the Falcons. Immediately the line went to +2.5 though (smart money it sure looked like) and then back to +3 where it has remained despite the massive action all over the Falcons. People are doubting Teddy Bridgewater starting in this game, but we’ve got some great numbers on him. This will be one of his biggest games in his career.
The public is scared to go against the Falcons right now after they just put up 56 points. Well here are 3 huge reasons to not bet the Falcons this week:
1. The Buccaneers are awful. We already called that one when they lost to our Rams who everyone thinks is bad too. Who cares about a win against them. If anything that will skew a team’s perspective (winning vs. an easy team).
2. The Falcons won their first game against the Saints with a whole lot of luck involved in an OT Saint’s fumble.
3. Matt Ryan at home is 37-10, 76 TD’s, 29 Int and then falls apart 24-25, 81 TDs, 51 Ints on the road career. This season hasn’t been much different losing in Cincinnati 10-24….now another road game.
Let’s talk about the Vikings now.
By the numbers they’ve had the third most difficult schedule so far in the NFL. In our opinion, it has been THE most difficult. Consider what their two losses were:
Week 2 – Lost to New England 7-30 – New England is a top tier team that was on the verge of going 0-2. That doesn’t happen.
Week 3 – Lost to New Orleans 9-20 – The Saints are another top tier team that was on the verge of going 0-3 IN THE DOME. No one wins in this game. I don’t care who the team is. These two losses were some of the most unfortunate I’ve ever seen because the Vikings began each one in such significant morale deficits. Again though, back to business. This game is going to look more like the game where the Vikings smacked the Rams 34-6 in Week 1. Might even be worse….
Some technical stuff:
MEGA SYSTEM: Since 2005, Home teams off of a game scoring under double digits vs. a team that just reeled in a blowout number of points (>28) is 45-17-1 (72.6%) ATS
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31