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3-0 Today in NHL

Saturday, October 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Toronto 0 7:00 PM ET Detroit -124 (Top Play) 1.00
Detroit 1   WINNER!
NY Islanders 1 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -1 +115 0.50
Pittsburgh 3   WINNER!
St. Louis 6 9:00 PM ET St. Louis -121 0.50
Arizona 1    WINNER!
A play on the +1 puckline here today for our 3’rd official selection of the year. I’m staying small on this one (to it to win 0.5 units) because it is still early in the season, and not everything adds up for Pittsburgh. I don’t have many games like this one behind us that I can compare to. With that said…
*The New York Islanders are 4-0 with little rest putting up at least 4 goals in each game. Pittsburgh is 2-1 now off of a loss playing a home game. We have lots of indications that NYI takes a break in this game realizing that the season needs some pacing. This may of may not happen, but if that dynamic were to occur, which is likely, it would probably be a blowout for the Penguins.
In Detroit:
I keep thinking about how they want to tear down the stadium in Detroit and how the whole city is in shambles. Seems to me that we have an angle here betting the Redwings throughout the season. People in Detroit and from Detroit love their sports teams. It represents some sort of hope for the city that currently doesn’t have much….Anyways, that’s just a thought, its not a reason why this is a play at all. Just something to think about this season maybe.
*Most of the bets are actually on the Leafs. I love the. People get down on a team when a key guy is out, but raw numbers take injuries into account and we’re not making as big of a deal about Datsyuk here as other bettor’s are. Seems public bets brought this one down from -140 and here we’ll strike. Might go even lower, but I’m seeing indication of smart money coming in now on the Wings.

Detroit just broke a streak with a blowout win vs. a division rival. I like Babcock in this spot. I pointed out before that the team gets down after the close losses, but they ride momentum very well. This is their spot to play well. Let’s back them with some added value and raw number support.

Good luck, nice win for Purdue by the way. No one saw them coming there, namely the other team.
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8-4 +4.82 Now in MLB Playoffs


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SFO Giants Top Play Wins

If you didn’t watch that Orioles – Royals game yesterday, you must at least watch the highlights. I don’t often watch a baseball game and think, “wow that was pretty cool.” The Royals want this, and I am really appreciating how hard they’re playing and how well. I was predicting the O’s to win the big series this year. I still think they’re that good. Should be a testament to what Kansas City has been able to pull off in these playoffs. Paid off passing yesterday. Again. We’ve only had 1 play in the playoffs that went 1-0. Raw numbers are now 6-3 in the playoffs.
For today, I would say consider the Royals. Like I said, I have rarely seen teams play like this before and it is hard for me to imagine the Orioles making a comeback now with the Royals off of a win playing again at home. On the other hand, everyone else feels that way, and the O’s are now road dogs in a must win spot. Gonzalez looks superior to Vargas here by the numbers, but overall, the Royals have the slight edge. I don’t want to touch this game.
In San Francisco however, we have an official selection:

Wednesday, October 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount
St. Louis 4 8:00 PM ET San Francisco -101 1.00
San Francisco 6    (Top Play) WINNER!

SYSTEM: Since 2004, home teams -110 to +120 off of a win or road team +140 to +115 off of a win in the playoffs are 53-22 (70.7%, +39.76 units, +52.6% roi) SU. That’s 2-0 +2.1 units this season.

Raw numbers projecting a +2.28 run victory for the home team here.
Those two things are enough for the play. I said that I am being selective though so here’s another thought:
*The Giants are winning this one in every category. They’re slugging better, better OBS, better bullpen, better starting pitcher. Not a whole lot of doubt here for me.
***Under Bruce Bochy the Giants are 28-11 (+1.31 rpg, 71.8%, +22.38 units, +52.4% roi) SU in playoff games. 6-2 at home off of a home win.
*Since August 16 this season, the Giants are 13-2 (86.7%, +10.95 units, +47.8% roi) SU at home after being home favorites.
2-0 on those leans yesterday. Raw numbers went 3-1. They’re 13-3 for the season so far.
Passing today. Boston was looking good, but no raw number support.
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2-0-1 On NFL Top Raw Numbers Yesterday


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5-1 On Top Plays – Bills Lost

Top Play Links: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5


Game Score Status Pick Amount
New England 37 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +3 (Top Play) 2.00
Buffalo 22    LOST  
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

In Buffalo (Top Play):
It is amazing how public opinion can shift so darn quickly. Last week people were absolutely crazy. They thought Tom Brady was going to leave New England. Now they get a home win and people are acting like they’re the best team in the world again. Well guess what? They’re not; remember all those problems the Patriots have had this season? They still have them. Last week was highly situational. That was a must win for New England. Before I continue here is a prevailing system that is supporting the raw numbers here:
TOP PLAY SYSTEM: Since 1989, Plus .500 teams off of a win as a home underdog are just 81-137-8 (37.2%) ATS and just 14-34-3 (29.2%) ATS since 2010! 5-16 ATS since 2011 against another plus .500 team. That’s 2-19-1 (9.5%) ATS as small dogs or favorites now (line<2).

Let’s think about that one for a minute. Last week everyone was down on the Patriots. They pull an upset. People might be mistaking a regular home field win for a legit re birthing of the team. This situation is strongest when that last win just put the team above .500 (0-8-1 ATS). Why was the team below .500? No one really asks that question here…but that is exactly what we’re thinking.
Buffalo brings the house now and a different set of skills than the Bengals. They have been able to stop the run with just their four linemen. That makes passing harder now for Brady. Marcell Darius just ripped apart Detroit last week getting 3 sacks and forcing a fumble. Buffalo’s defense is legit holding rushes to 3 yards an attempt or 71.4 yards per game.
Again, we’re going with one of the most lopsided games on the board. Over 80% of the bets are both on the Patriot’s point spread and on their moneyline. This one will probably go to +4 before game time where you will want to strike.
Kyle Orton is a concern, but he’s 1-0 at home vs. New England. He’s been here before. He’s a concern, but a bet is never perfect.
*Since October last season, the Patriots have only been 1-6-0 SU and 0-7-0 (-8.07ppg) ATS on the road off of a win.
Expect some players to be fat and happy off of that home win forgetting that they have some core issues.
*Since 1998, the Bills are 10-0 SU and 10-0 ATS at home off a road win between -3.5 and +3.5.
***The Bills sit at 3-2 with the 7th hardest strength of schedule in the league.
The Bills are definately taking this game seriously against the Patriots while the Pats will probably be thinking about all of the times they’ve beaten Buffalo. The Patriots are 3-2 as well but have had almost a 30% easier schedule. In addition, the Patriots play again on Thursday (in four days from this game). Their thinking about two games right now really…
SYSTEM: Road favorites (on Sunday) going into Thursday games are 5-13-2 (27.8%) ATS and just 10-10 since 1989.


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NHL Raw Numbers 5-1 Yesterday


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5-0 Now on NFL Top Plays…

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Cincinnati 17 8:30 PM ET New England +1 2.00
New England 43    (Top Play) WINNER!


Thoughts: Last week Vegas won big again and we nailed it with the Vikings upset over the Atlanta Falcons. Everyone thought that they had it right with the Falcons off of a high scoring win on that one as the most lopsided bet of the day for the heaviest bet games. Vegas pulled in the most with this one and then raked it in with the Tampa Bay upset and the Dallas upset (maybe a tie with Dallas). A strategy we’ve always liked is looking for teams that lost the public tons and tons of money last week (so New Orleans, Atlanta, Patriots and Pittsburgh) and considering them for next week.
One more note before we get to the meat of things: We’re going to pass on the Vikings on Thursday. They’re a great team and will probably cover the spread tonight; however, the public has driven the line down hard from +10 to +8 with Bridgewater out. If you can’t see how a play on the Vikings stinks then you need a good WHAP! The Packers are in nearly the same situation as our two side bets; that is, they’re an elite team; public currently in doubt about them; at home; great home records; need to get this win or their fans and teammates really all start doubting. The Packers looked like a tasty bet, but I have too much respect for the Vikings. That one is a pass.
In New England (Top Play):
Last week, Tom Brady was humiliated on national MNF live tv in one of his worst games ever. Maybe his worst actually. He threw two interceptions and was sacked and fumbled twice. It was awful. Now under 30% of the bets are on the Patriots as home underdogs. I’ll take that. I subscribe to the theory that great quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers (I know he’s off a win) all pick themselves up after losses or bad performances. Their records show it:
*Career, Drew Brees is 30-17-0 SU and 29-18 ATS off of a loss. That’s 20-5-0 (+12.48 ppg, 80%) SU and 17-8 ATS in the Dome (at home).
**Tom Brady is 45-16-0 (73.%) SU and 40-21-0 (65.6%) ATS after a loss.
****That’s 25-3-0 (+13.39 ppg, 89.3%) SU and 25-3 ATS since 2003 under 9 points favorite or a dog.
*Add to that, the Patriots are 42-7-0 (+11.57 ppg, 85.7%) SU at home since 2009! Why should they ever be dogs if they’re at home and Brady and Belichick are at the wheel? They were only ever underdogs at home once in 2013 against the Broncos and of course they won. They have been small favorites or home dogs just 4 times under a field goal in this era and won every single one of these games (4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS).
*Since November 1st, 2011, the Patriots are 17-1-0 SU and 18-0-0 (+15.36 ppg, 100%) ATS off of a loss not laying more than a field goal. The Patriots are at home off of a loss and they’re .500 right now. They’ve been 5-0 SU (+8 ppg) since 2003 with an average line of -7.5. Everybody is overreacting to how things went for the Patriots last game.
One last thing to think about: The Bengals have had the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL. Those 3 wins don’t look like anything that impressive to me.
Good luck on these three. You can pass on the other two and just take the Patriots if you’d like…..or if you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: 
I considered teasing the Patriots and Saints and well for 6 points….
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
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MLB Playoffs Baltimore Wins

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Detroit 3 5:30 PM ET Baltimore +103 1.00
Baltimore 12    WINNER!
“Alright, we have a full sized regular play on Baltimore for today. I have some solid reasons why you should bet them:
First off, they’re a “Strong” qualifying raw number play. That should say enough in itself…

*Raw number sides are 240-203 +38.35 units this season.*

PLAYOFFS SYSTEM: Since 2005, -110 to -120 small home favs and dogs off of a win are 25-10 (71.4%, +16.78 units, +47.3% roi) SU in the playoffs.
Baltimore beats Detroit in almost every catagory we like to consider. Their pitching is much better (bullpen WHIP per site, bullpen control, starter units earned, starter WHIP and control) and their hitting is slightly better. I’m not really sure what is making Detroit the favorite here. Max Scherzer strikes a lot of guys out; however, there is a fairly large difference between how many total runs each has allowed at their respective site. That bottom line stat is going to be a little bit more important. For us, Baltimore should have been the CLEAR favorite.
*I like a bet on Buck Showalter. He is my favorite manager in MLB. I think everyone has to love what he’s done for the Orioles since he came in 2010 to fix a highly broken team. He has more than succeeded and has also been a bettor’s dream (unless you’ve been betting against the Orioles). Under Buck Showalter, the Orioles are fired up going 72-62 (53.7%, +28.09 units, +19.2% roi) SU after facing 6 or more division opponents straight.
***Chris Tillman is 22-6 SU this season with the total under 9. That’s 10-4 (71.4%, +8.9 units) SU on the road and 12-2 (85.7%, +9.15 units) SU at home.”
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Regular MLB Season Raw Numbers Report

Regular MLB season just ended yesterday. Raw numbers did extremely well. Click here to join us for the playoffs:

Here is a report:


Sides + Totals went 353 – 278 (55.9%) +72.6 Units


All Games Record: 239-203 +37.35 units
Strong Games Record: 13-8 +3.44 units
Med. DIV Gms Record: 10-9 +0.72 units
Med. !DIV Gms Record: 17-8 +7.76 units
Med. INT Gms Record: 2-2 -0.31 units
Basic DIV Gms Record: 106-85 +16.64 units
Basic !DIV Gms Record: 80-73 +2.62 units
Basic INT Gms Record: 23-18 +6.48 units


All Totals Record: 114-75 +35.25 units
All Overs Record: 54-41 +10.95 units
All Unders Record: 60-34 +24.3 units
Strong Overs Record: 6-3 +2.85 units
Med. Overs Record: 13-8 +4.6 units
Basic Overs Record: 35-30 +3.5 units
Strong Unders Record: 5-3 +1.85 units
Med. Unders Record: 9-5 +3.75 units
Basic Unders Record: 46-26 +18.7 units



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4-0 Now on NFL Top Plays Now!

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Atlanta 28 4:25 PM ET Minnesota +3 (Top play) 2.00
Minnesota 41      Vikings ML +135  0.20
Thoughts: We’re 3-0 now on Top plays in NFL and 15-8-1 ATS +9.49 Units for the season with smaller plays cashing in nicely as well. Last week, we made a call that the books would put a lot of “gimme’s” out there after a historically excellent opening to the season in weeks 1 and 2 where they totally robbed the public blind with dogs over 3 points going 14-7-0 ATS (66.7%).
Sure enough, in week three publicly backed heavy Favorites over -5 points on the spread tore it up going 5-0-0 (+22.6 ppg, 100%) SU and 4-1 ATS. This week the books are probably thinking, “okay, that’s enough of that” as they pull away the pacifier. Back to business…
In Minnesota:
First of all, this is our heaviest raw number edge. Here is exactly what the raw numbers are projecting in the ATL / MIN game:
raw: VIKINGS 40.0 – FALCONS 30.4
likely outcome: VIKINGS 41 – FALCONS 31
A pretty clear win for the Vikings. The public doesn’t agree though:
Since back on Sunday, I’ve been watching the public DUMPING their pocketbooks onto the Falcons. Immediately the line went to +2.5 though (smart money it sure looked like) and then back to +3 where it has remained despite the massive action all over the Falcons. People are doubting Teddy Bridgewater starting in this game, but we’ve got some great numbers on him. This will be one of his biggest games in his career.
The public is scared to go against the Falcons right now after they just put up 56 points. Well here are 3 huge reasons to not bet the Falcons this week:
1. The Buccaneers are awful. We already called that one when they lost to our Rams who everyone thinks is bad too. Who cares about a win against them. If anything that will skew a team’s perspective (winning vs. an easy team).
2. The Falcons won their first game against the Saints with a whole lot of luck involved in an OT Saint’s fumble.
3. Matt Ryan at home is 37-10, 76 TD’s, 29 Int and then falls apart 24-25, 81 TDs, 51 Ints on the road career. This season hasn’t been much different losing in Cincinnati 10-24….now another road game.
Let’s talk about the Vikings now.
By the numbers they’ve had the third most difficult schedule so far in the NFL. In our opinion, it has been THE most difficult. Consider what their two losses were:
Week 2 – Lost to New England 7-30 – New England is a top tier team that was on the verge of going 0-2. That doesn’t happen.
Week 3 – Lost to New Orleans 9-20 – The Saints are another top tier team that was on the verge of going 0-3 IN THE DOME. No one wins in this game. I don’t care who the team is. These two losses were some of the most unfortunate I’ve ever seen because the Vikings began each one in such significant morale deficits. Again though, back to business. This game is going to look more like the game where the Vikings smacked the Rams 34-6 in Week 1. Might even be worse….
Some technical stuff:
MEGA SYSTEM: Since 2005, Home teams off of a game scoring under double digits vs. a team that just reeled in a blowout number of points (>28) is 45-17-1 (72.6%) ATS!
If you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: 
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
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