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2-0 Yesterday in MLB

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Cincinnati WINNER! 7:15 PM ET St. Louis -115 1.20
St. Louis -
Baltimore WINNER! 8:10 PM ET Under 8.5 1.20
Chi. White Sox -

Two solid raw number selections with under 30% of the bets and sharp money on STL and under 15% of the public bets on the UNDER.

***Since 2011, the Cardinals are 119-59 (+1.12 rpg, 66.9%, +37.30 units, +13.7% roi) SU at home in second halves of seasons.
Huge value on STL here where they’d normally be roughly -151
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6-0 Raw Number Sweep 1-0 on Official Top Play

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Detroit 6 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +106 1.25
Pittsburgh 11  (WINNER!)
A lot of things add up for Pittsburgh here today:

1. Raw number sides are up 155-102 +47.4 units this season

2. So far, over 60% of the public bets are on the small road favorite. This should gain value as the day goes on unless smart money comes down on it.
3. Justin Verlander has suffered as a favorite in the last two seasons. In particular against teams scoring under 2.7 extra base hits a game going just 5-16 (-1.24 rpg, 23.8%, -20.72 units, +87.5% roi to fade) SU. Perhaps the area where he suffers has had to do with his control.
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5-0 Sweep in MLB! +7.024%

5-0 Sweep on the MLB raw number sides. Hot couple of days before that too! Raw number sides are at an awesome 151-96 +50.59 units

*This is exactly what I’m talking about: people just following the raw numbers would have a whopping 50.97 units (plus totals) more than I have for official selections. I am not a perfect gambler and there are so many ways to skin the cat as I always say. Be versatile, stick to your guns, manage your money well and have a firm foundation in how you develop your wagers…know what to pass on. Most of you guys know all of this stuff and probably want me to shut up and send the plays already. Without further ado:
Game Score Status Pick Amount
St. Louis 3 4:05 PM ET Baltimore +103 1.25
Baltimore 10    (WINNER!)
NY Mets 2 7:05 PM ET NY Mets +153 (WINNER!) 1.25
Philadelphia 1 Under 7 (WINNER!) 1.00
Texas 3 7:10 PM ET Houston +152 1.20
Houston 8     (WINNER!)
Minnesota 4 9:05 PM ET Over 7.5 1.00
Oakland 9    (WINNER!)

Every single one of these selections today is a raw number play and a public fade. Here are a few key thoughts:

**Since July this season, the Orioles are running hot, going 23-10 (69.7%, +15.9 units, +43.1% roi) SU.
*They’re also a massive 21-2 (+2 rpg, 77.8%, +17.87 units, +61.5% roi) SU this season vs. teams between .500 and .560.
*Ace Cole Hamels is just 8-16 (33.3%, -14.75 units, +52% roi to fade) SU since 2013 vs. sub .500 teams.
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Big Hit on CFL Top Play…

Friday, August 1

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Toronto WINNER! 7:00 PM ET Toronto +3 (Top Play) 2.00
Montreal - (Top Play)
Line Shopping Reference (by statistical occurrence):
CFL Key Margins of Victory:  3, 2, 1, 6, 5, 7, 10, 4, 8, 18, 9, 11, 13, 17, 21
CFL Key Totals: 57, 51, 43, 47, 38, 44, 65, 50, 40, 56, 53, 41, 46, 52, 61, 45
 
Line shopping tips:
*Try to get +5 if you can on Winnipeg. Otherwise, +4.5 is fine.
*No less than +3 on Toronto.
*Anything under 51 for the Over will qualify.
 
SYSTEM: Since 2007, +1 to +12 underdogs off of a 35 to 20 point blow out loss come back 35-27 SU and 50-12-0 (+8.48, 80.6%) ATS.
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Two Winning MLB Systems

July is over. Favorites made blind profit as I talked about at the start of the month. Hopefully you played it a little better than I did. Something about picking favorites doesn’t work out too well for me. Good news is the the end of regular season rocks for dogs. August is another weird month though…
 
Game Result Status Pick Amount
Cincinnati WINNER! 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati +104 1.20
Miami -
San Francisco WINNER! 7:10 PM ET San Francisco +112 1.50
NY Mets -

SYSTEM (+Raw Numbers) CIN: Since 2004, road favorites or Small road dogs in Augusts off of a win facing a team off of a loss are 315-211 (59.9%, +52.85 units, +7.8% roi) SU with some additional filtering that can be seen via the SDQL link.

SYSTEM (+Raw Numbers) SFO: Since 2004, plus .500 dogs vs. sub .500 dogs off of 6+ losses of their last 8 games are 83-56 (59.7%, +41.17 units, +29.6% roi) SU.
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Easy Winner on Top WNBA Play

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Atlanta 67 4:00 PM ET Washington +3.5 1.20
Washington 77    WINNER!
Really good line value now. The public has been slamming the other side for a while.
*Atlanta is just 3-14 ATS since 2013 on the road vs. sub .500 teams. They may not take Washington seriously today.
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A Winner on Today’s Top Play…

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Miami 5 2:15 PM ET Under 8 1.00
St. Louis 3
Toronto 2 4:05 PM ET Oakland -1 +101 1.20
Oakland 4    (Top Play)
San Francisco 5 4:10 PM ET San Francisco +111 1.00
San Diego 3

*Raw total numbers are 77-46 +28.7 units this season*

Unders are 35-16 +18.2 units…
*The Oakland Athletics are 28-4 (87.5%, +22.41 units, +49.1% roi) SU and +58% roi RL as -130 to -175 home favorites facing plus.500 teams under Bob Melvin.
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2-0 +2.93 Units Yesterday

Tired of following handicappers that boast a plus .500 record, but aren’t cutting the cheese on the money? We pick plays at an average +107 odds and easily clear .500 ; check us out at http://www.pickmonitor.com/user/ProComputerGambler

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Chi. White Sox 4 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +103 1.20
Baltimore 6
Pittsburgh 8 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +141 1.20
Tampa Bay 1
*In the years with Clint Hurdle, the Pirates have been excellent in Junes going 62-38 +31.19 units and quite good in the surrounding months. It seems that the pattern is, take a month to get into gear, rock it and then tank. So we’re sort of in that low pressure part of the season where the Pirates have thrived. Raw numbers love them today. Let’s see if they can go a little further this year.
*Under Buck Showalter, the Orioles are 16-7 (69.6%, +11.6 units, +44.5% roi) SU after two straight games allowing 1 run or less.
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Another Sweep!

Game Score Status Pick Amount
San Diego 1 3:40 PM ET Under 7.5 1.00
Seattle 6
Baltimore 7 7:10 PM ET Baltimore +103 1.00
Tampa Bay 5

*Raw number totals are now 74-36 +36.2 units this season*

**The Rays are just 6-17 SU (-15.76 units, +58.8% roi to fade) this season after 2+ straight games with 0 errors.
*Something I like about that trend is the logical fact that the OVER is 16-6 in this situation: so we have the theory that the Rays are due for errors in this game. Roughly 30-40% more than the opponent. This will be conducive to a loss and/or a high scoring affair.
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Big Easy Winner on Top Play

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 0 7:10 PM ET Under 9.5 1.50
Boston 1    (Top Play)
Everything adds up on this one:
*Raw total numbers are 73-36 +35.2 units this season*
*Raw Unders are 33-13 +19.35 units this season. Under 9 or 9.5 are 11-2 combined!
I think that there is some psychology there with 9 and 9.5 being good spots. Today Over 85% of the public bets are on the Over here. I think that the public sees 9.5 and 9 and thinks that the inherent advantage is the Over at double digits is the key mark. The key mark though in all of MLB is 9! So 9.5 has inherent value for the Under. Sharp money on the under here too. With everyone slamming the Over, why isn’t the total going up or getting plus odds?
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