Slight lean towards San Antonio. I have to kick myself a little bit for not taking Miami yesterday following what our home favorite system pinwheels off of but got filtered out by ‘day!=Monday.’ That parameter is statistically meaningful; however, I asked a friend who knows NBA better than I do if it is LOGICAL, and he said ‘no’ and couldn’t draw up any reason to use it…but that would be some strong variance.
The Heat ended up blowing out the Pacers doing three things:
1. Proving our system right (home favorite in the playoffs off of a no cover loss).
2. The raw numbers backed Miami slightly.
3. The public was wrong.
…anyways, the chatter I’m hearing now is all on Miami and all against the Spurs. The prevailing thought that I am hearing is that the Spurs have had this long waiting period before this game now and Miami is hot and rolling. I love the idea of betting the Spurs with all of those points; however, Miami is….historically good this season. The Spurs seem like a team you could balance on the edge of a knife, but the Heat have produced runs in the second half of this season that I haven’t seen before. I’d pass here and just enjoy this one…
LA and the UNDER looks good in the matchup vs. my B-Hawks. I’m passing we’re hitting those (raw number) Unders at an incredible rate this season, but really, when they’re a bit higher than a -4.4 p:OUm. Most of the public is on those two leans and this is a big marquee game. I suggest doing what I’m doing: pass.
In my humble opinion, the best betters are mainly defined by what they PASS on or don’t gamble on…(which is sort of to say that the best gamblers are people who don’t gamble lol). That can’t be said enough in these playoffs where you have more uncharted territory; some cappers thrive this time of year, but since we base our plays on raw data and historical facts and situations, the playoffs generally get played more lightly due to just that fact. One thing I’ll add about the guys who thrive betting marquee games: they generally don’t have 84%+ season to season positive streaks for 10+ years across 8 different sports and 100% cumulative cash positive years career.