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NFL Week 16 Results

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) Week 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W) | Wk 11 (L) | Wk 13 (L)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-3 (70%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK 16 RAW NUMBERS
NFL Week 16 Ratings:
Note: There is only one now in “THE GREAT” category. Last week (from time of release), the top category went 3-1 ATS with the Packers losing; however, we had their opponent (the Bills) in the underrated category which went 4-2. So not really a bad chart to be looking at. I think that some notable things for this week off of the chart would be that the Eagles are a good team that has now lost its over rated status, despite having an MVP, the Texans are overrated, the Dolphins are now underrated after holding a seat in the top category, the Rams are underrated and are tied with the leader of the AFC South and the Raiders and Jags aren’t Awful, but two other teams are. Final thought of the week: Drew Brees is currently the top fantasy QB and was on top last week. I’m tired of people asking the question: what happened with Brees? Nothing happened; he just plays on a team with a bum defensive coordinator and is trying to pick up slack. This should be a testament to how good Brees really is….he has led the Saints to the number one spot in the division now (and it says a whole lot more than it looks like in my opinion).
News / Facts:
*Bears starting Jimmy Clausen; Jay Cutler benched? Hmm….well this sort of thing usually backfires.
*Michigan offers Harbaugh 6 year $48 million deal. I’d take that personally…skrew the fair-weather 49ers fans.

*Adam Vinatieri is only Kicker this season not to miss. Has made all 28 field goals, and all 46 extra points. The power of age and experience….

*Le’Veon Bell, despite 262 carries for 1,278 yards and 76 receptions for 765 yards, hasn’t fumbled once this year.
*The Buffalo Bills have clinched their first non-losing season in a decade by beating the Green Bay Packers!
*Sanchez is still shitty QB: http://www.gfycat.com/AliveSeriousAlaskanhusky (or form your own opinion).

THE SELECTIONS:

Saturday, December 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount
San Diego (W) 38 8:25 PM ET San Diego +1 1.00
San Francisco 35    WINNER!

Sunday, December 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 35 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +7 1.00
Miami (W) 37    WINNER!
Green Bay (W) 20 1:00 PM ET Green Bay -10* 1.00
Tampa Bay 3    WINNER!
Kansas City 12 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +3 1.00
Pittsburgh (W) 20    LOST
Indianapolis - 4:25 PM ET Indianapolis +3 1.20
Dallas -    Pending…

Monday, December 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Denver - 8:30 PM ET Denver -3 1.20
Cincinnati -    Pending…
I’m going to hit send here so you can get these lines in and then I’ll follow up with a writeup email. I really wanted a top play this week because it has been a while; Denver checks in with so many things, but they’re a public backed clinched team that we can only possibly count on to sharpen their blades for the playoffs.
Stay tuned for writeups on these. Get the lines for now though.
Thought of the day: 
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 37, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

 

WRITEUPS:

San Diego Chargers:

The 49ers resign to play the troll role; while the Chargers have playoff implications in this one. Harbaugh played for his job last week and now I think they’re going to be flat. He’ll either be going to Miami, Oakland or Michigan; San Francisco has some of the most disloyal fans burning Kaepernick jerseys after booing away Alex Smith who is now doing great in KC with reasonable people around him. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS this season at home 3-3 SU. I wouldn’t want to play there…I’m sure I’d get booed out of there in the first two minutes of the game. It may be hard to focus on this game for Harbaugh, Kaepernick, and crew with that going on plus the distraction of where Harbaugh is going to next.
*I’m counting 26 injuries to the 49ers. They’ll have the janitor out on the field on Saturday. That includes Frank Gore questionable who would be the most key injury. This is one of the most unhealthy teams.
****MEGA TREND (Thanks to Mitch and Ali): Teams that just played the Seahawks go 32-42-1 SU and 23-48-4 ATS in their next games. OUCH. The Seahawks are brutal…hence the massive injury list? That’s 19-26 SU and 12-29-4 (70.7% to fade) ATS if playing at home next. 49ers are going to be hurt and flat and emotionally crushed here while the Chargers will do their very best to work on a legit, 15.7% chance left for playoffs.
Raw numbers are projecting: CHARGERS 24 49ERS 17 win for San Diego on the road plus the points
Minnesota Vikings:
SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team off of a 1,2 or 3 point close loss goes 42-11-0 (79.2%) SU the following week against a team that just allowed 37+ points.

*MEGA SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team playing at least one consecutive game on the road might be undervalued having gone 941-829-46 (53.2%) ATS. That’s 490-378-20 (56.5%) ATS since 2003. Active this week on the Packers -10, Vikings +7, Broncos -3. Take this system to the bank folks. It has a contrarian nature so I think it should hold up for many more years before anyone seriously begins to catch on.
Raw numbers are projecting: VIKINGS 18 DOLPHINS 17 possible upset for Minnesota on the road plus the points
Green Bay Packers:
*MEGA SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team playing at least one consecutive game on the road might be undervalued having gone 941-829-46 (53.2%) ATS. That’s 490-378-20 (56.5%) ATS since 2003. Active this week on the Packers -10, Vikings +7, Broncos -3.
Raw numbers are projecting: PACKERS 41 BUCCS 17 win for Green Bay on the road minus the points
Kansas City Chiefs:
Kansas City has a great pass rush and great blitzing. I love the Chiefs this season. Raw numbers aside, I have Kansas City in my underrated category and the Steelers in my overrated category. That should make this a play on its own….however:
Raw numbers are projecting: CHIEFS 31 STEELERS 27 upset win for Kansas City on the road plus the points
Indianapolis Colts:
***MEGA TREND: The Underdog is 53-23-1 (69.7%) ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
*The Cowboys are just 7-23-0 (23.3%) ATS as home favorites since 2010. 0-5 ATS for -3 points or less.
Raw numbers are projecting: COLTS 31 COWBOYS 27 win for Indianapolis on the road plus the points
Denver Broncos:
*MEGA SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team playing at least one consecutive game on the road might be undervalued having gone 941-829-46 (53.2%) ATS. That’s 490-378-20 (56.5%) ATS since 2003. Active this week on the Packers -10, Vikings +7, Broncos -3.
Raw numbers are projecting: BRONCOS 31 BENGALS 20 win for the Broncos on the road minus the points
I would also consider the following bets:
BEARS +10
OAKLAND +7
SEAHAWKS -8
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Chargers +1 bet wins Straight up…

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) Week 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W) | Wk 11 (L) | Wk 13 (L)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-3 (70%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK 16 RAW NUMBERS
NFL Week 16 Ratings:
Note: There is only one now in “THE GREAT” category. Last week (from time of release), the top category went 3-1 ATS with the Packers losing; however, we had their opponent (the Bills) in the underrated category which went 4-2. So not really a bad chart to be looking at. I think that some notable things for this week off of the chart would be that the Eagles are a good team that has now lost its over rated status, despite having an MVP, the Texans are overrated, the Dolphins are now underrated after holding a seat in the top category, the Rams are underrated and are tied with the leader of the AFC South and the Raiders and Jags aren’t Awful, but two other teams are. Final thought of the week: Drew Brees is currently the top fantasy QB and was on top last week. I’m tired of people asking the question: what happened with Brees? Nothing happened; he just plays on a team with a bum defensive coordinator and is trying to pick up slack. This should be a testament to how good Brees really is….he has led the Saints to the number one spot in the division now (and it says a whole lot more than it looks like in my opinion).
News / Facts:
*Bears starting Jimmy Clausen; Jay Cutler benched? Hmm….well this sort of thing usually backfires.
*Michigan offers Harbaugh 6 year $48 million deal. I’d take that personally…skrew the fair-weather 49ers fans.

*Adam Vinatieri is only Kicker this season not to miss. Has made all 28 field goals, and all 46 extra points. The power of age and experience….

*Le’Veon Bell, despite 262 carries for 1,278 yards and 76 receptions for 765 yards, hasn’t fumbled once this year.
*The Buffalo Bills have clinched their first non-losing season in a decade by beating the Green Bay Packers!
*Sanchez is still shitty QB: http://www.gfycat.com/AliveSeriousAlaskanhusky (or form your own opinion).

THE SELECTIONS:

Saturday, December 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount
San Diego (W) 38 8:25 PM ET San Diego +1 1.00
San Francisco 35    WINNER!
WRITEUPS:
San Diego Chargers:
The 49ers resign to play the troll role; while the Chargers have playoff implications in this one. Harbaugh played for his job last week and now I think they’re going to be flat. He’ll either be going to Miami, Oakland or Michigan; San Francisco has some of the most disloyal fans burning Kaepernick jerseys after booing away Alex Smith who is now doing great in KC with reasonable people around him. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS this season at home 3-3 SU. I wouldn’t want to play there…I’m sure I’d get booed out of there in the first two minutes of the game. It may be hard to focus on this game for Harbaugh, Kaepernick, and crew with that going on plus the distraction of where Harbaugh is going to next.
*I’m counting 26 injuries to the 49ers. They’ll have the janitor out on the field on Saturday. That includes Frank Gore questionable who would be the most key injury. This is one of the most unhealthy teams.
****MEGA TREND (Thanks to Mitch and Ali): Teams that just played the Seahawks go 32-42-1 SU and 23-48-4 ATS in their next games. OUCH. The Seahawks are brutal…hence the massive injury list? That’s 19-26 SU and 12-29-4 (70.7% to fade) ATS if playing at home next. 49ers are going to be hurt and flat and emotionally crushed here while the Chargers will do their very best to work on a legit, 15.7% chance left for playoffs.
Raw numbers are projecting: CHARGERS 24 49ERS 17 win for San Diego on the road plus the points
5 More Pending for Sunday and Monday

 

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12-1 on Top College Hoops Saturday

Raw College Basketball Numbers of 4 points or more went 12-1. Edges 7 or more went a PERFECT 6-0 today. Have a look:

Capture

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NFL Week 16 Rankings

THE GREAT:
Denver Broncos: 6.0

THE GOOD:
Green Bay Packers: 6.5
Seattle Seahawks: 5.9
Arizona Cardinals: 3.3
Indianapolis Colts: 3
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens: (perhaps a bit over-rated)
Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles (they’re out of the over-rated box)
Buffalo Bills

OVER-RATED
Houston Texans
Dallas Cowboys
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals (slightly)

UNDER-RATED:
Miami Dolphins: (and very good)
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams

THE BAD:
New Orleans Saints (only because of Rob Ryan)
Cleveland Browns
Carolina Panthers
Minnesota Vikings
Washington
Atlanta Falcons
New York Giants
Chicago Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders

THE AWFUL:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans

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2-0 In NBA Today

Nothing qualifies for today.
Passing today. Vancouver -155 comes very close.
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Phoenix 111 7:00 PM ET Phoenix -1 1.00
Charlotte 106    WINNER!
Brooklyn 89 8:00 PM ET Toronto -11 1.00
Toronto 105      WINNER!

Two regular raw number bets.

*Raw NBA Numbers are 56-36 +18.2% this season.*

*System: Since 2008, Sub .500 road team +2 or less off of 3 or more straight losses are 78-30 (72.2%) SU and 66% ATS.
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2-1-1 +1.16% Yesterday

Nice 4-1 ATS day in NFL yesterday. Backdoor Bills cover blew our one loss. Gotta take note with Peyton Manning preferring clock control to expanding leads vs. good defenses for the future…Almost a 5-0 NFL day.
Nothing qualifies for today.
Nothing for today. Felt awesome calling Edmonton to snap the 11 game losing streak.
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Cleveland (W) 110 7:30 PM ET Cleveland -7.5 1.00
Brooklyn 88    WINNER!
Golden State 102 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +14 0.80
Minnesota 86    Lost
Utah 92 10:00 PM ET Sacramento -5.5 1.00
Sacramento (W) 101    WINNER!

Two regular qualifying selections on Cleveland and Sacramento: Raw numbers 46-23 +21.85% now looking as good as NHL numbers.

We’re taking Minnesota for a unit on principle: One of the strong systems we have for the NBA:
SYSTEM: Since 1995, Home Dogs over +10 points on the spread off of a loss are 124-72-2 (63.3%) ATS. Very very simple. In NBA, this is just too many points to give a home team. We’re taking Minnesota on that fact alone. Plus we have some supporting raw numbers.
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Pittsburgh 3 7:00 PM ET NY Rangers -1 +155 1.00
NY Rangers (W) 4    PUSHED

Taking the raw number play. Looks good: Raw numbers in NHL now 89-46 +26.98 Units

Good luck. Let’s get em again today.
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Oil!

daniel plainviewWe called the Oilers to win and snap a historically bad losing streak of 11 games today for big return over the San Jose Sharks. Here was the write up:

“…I felt like something was broken with the raw numbers when is saw the EDMONTON OILERS as a play today. They’re probably the second worst team in the league, but I guess raw numbers see them in a spot here that the human mind cannot fathom. *Raw NHL Numbers are 87-45 +25.85 Units this season. Vancouver looks solid, but with a gun to its head the computer chooses Edmonton? I want to take a look at this:
Under 10% of the bets are on Edmonton right now. No surprise, they’ve just lost their last 11 games straight. The worst losing streak we’ve seen in recent NHL history is -14.
Playing teams on 10 game or worst losing streaks has been a 18-17 +10.35 units WINNING betting proposition.
So I guess who the Edmonton Oilers are aside, this is a SPOT that yields profit. Take Edmonton small. They’re very bad, but you can have the glory and brag to all of your friends if you win with this team that nobody but old smart geezer gamblers are taking…”
*Since 2013, the San Jose Sharks are just 14-21 (40%, -28.86 units, +70.6% roi to fade) SU against very bad teams being outscored by over 0.3 goals per game. This trend is massive…
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NFL Week 14 Results…

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) Week 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W) | Wk 11 (L) | Wk 13 (L)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-3 (70%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK 14 RAW NUMBERS
Thoughts / News:
Las Vegas hit the JACKPOT with the Jags winning straight up over the G-Men last week. Here’s why: the sharps were on the Giants AND the square public bets were all on the Giants. It was over 75% of the betting public (which for the record does include sharp bettors and square bettors; “public” refers to everybody….including us yes) that went in on the Giants on Sunday and due to a fumble that sent the Jags right into the endzone, Jax upset the favorited visitor by a single point in a 25-24 home win. Good job Jacksonville. Congrats Vegas.
The top bet on game for Sunday however, went to the public: Denver Broncos over the Chiefs. This one felt like a really sharp bet on KC; and that is really the main reason I decided to go for it, but man…with a key guy out that game, Denver rails the home team…The Broncos have something special going on and raw numbers are having them come up as a bet even in square spots. Last week, I had them up in my “excellent” catagory where I ranked all of the teams….by the way, teams I had as “overrated” went 1-3 in their last games. By the way, the Broncos voided out a powerful trend: that is: Superbowl losers as road favorites are a long time historically losing proposition. One of those games though, where if we bet KC 1000 times we’d be in the money so I’d take the bet over again and again. Same with the Patriots. The game was close; came down to one big defining moment and Green Bay getting the big 8.5 average yards per pass for the game and then it was done. Sharp plays were: KC, ATL, NE, MIN, NYG, WAS which went 2-4 so a marginal week for Vegas. Anyways…
Some notable things in the news:
*Indianapolis can’t be beaten according to the stuffed suits.
*Johnny Manziel isn’t going to become the golden god for Cleveland this week as Brian Hoyer has been informed that he’ll start vs. Indy.
*Raiders say there will be “a substantial increase in uniformed law enforcement officers, undercover officers, and private security” on Sunday in the game vs. the 49ers.
*Aaron Rodgers has 27,193 passing yards in 99 starts. Most passing yards in first 100 starts: Tony Romo 27,485. Hmm….think Rodgers likes breaking records? He’ll for sure be my fantasy QB for this week!
The Selections:
Game Score Status Pick Amount
St. Louis (W) 24 1:00 PM ET St. Louis -2.5 1.00
Washington 0  WINNER!
Baltimore (W) 28 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +3* 1.00
Miami 13  WINNER!
Buffalo 17 4:05 PM ET Denver -10 1.00
Denver (W) 24  Lost
Seattle (W) 24 4:25 PM ET Seattle +1 1.00
Philadelphia 14  WINNER!
New England (W) 23 8:30 PM ET New England -3* 1.00
San Diego 14  WINNER!
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
WRITEUPS:

In Miami:

This one came close to being a top play, but as you already know, I’m in love with Miami so there’s no way I’m making this a big one. Even after the Jets almost beat them last week. I think they’re and underrated, quality team that may go far here….or they may not. Anyways, picking games in the NFL is about picking spots. Here’s what we’re seeing for this one:
This one may be close. Both teams are in the top 7 points allowed defenses. Both defenses on in the top 10 scoring defenses in the league. Overall, the Ravens are the superior offense; it is close; however, I think the key will be Forsett on the ground for the Ravens. Ravens are converting a nice 44% on 3rd down.
Since this may come down to a field goal battle, Baltimore’s Justin Tucker has the obvious edge over Caleb Sturgis.
Raw numbers are projecting: RAVENS 17 DOLPHINS 13 win for Baltimore plus the points
In Washington:
The Rams are the better team by quite a bit who has also had the harder strength of schedule. Aside from Sam Bradford, the Rams are mostly healthy. Over in Washington though, the list is long and it includes Wide Receiver DeSean Jackson who was injured last game and questionable now for Sunday. This is more of a technical raw number play than anything. I think there are some sharp bettors liking the Skins here; however, I’m not really going to overthink this one as a regular wager.
***Jeff Fisher is 24-14-1 (64.1%) ATS as an NFL head coach against very bad sub .250 teams. 13-4-0 ATS 14-3 SU off of a win.
Raw numbers are projecting: RAMS 23 REDSKINS 16 win for St. Louis -2.5
In Denver:
Demaryius Thomas is now probable, but the Broncos didn’t even need him last week. Should be a crushing with him now if he plays. Here is another one of those put my money where my mouth is picks: I said before the Kyle Orton lacks the qualities of even a mediocre quarterback. He came through with nothing in their Super Bowl with the Patriots and since then I haven’t wanted to touch the Bills with him at the helm. Now I am going to fade him. I know the Bills are off of two wins and people think they’re looking good, but I think this is going to be a stomping.
 
***The Broncos are 9-0 SU (+16.89 ppg) and 9-0 ATS since 2007 after a road win where they had a 2+ turnover margin.
Raw numbers are projecting: BRONCOS 33 BILLS 17 or 20 win for Denver with the Lumber
In Philly/In San Diego:
Last week we said the Eagles are overrated. Heck, I’ll call them the most overrated team in the league with Mark Sanchez as QB now and a whopping total of 10 non-defensive touchdowns which leads the league by a country mile. The Cardinals and Packers are in second with 5, and by and large, this type of scoring is the product of luck (fact).
***SYSTEM: Since 1989, road teams on their second road game or more are 933-827-46 (53%) ATS. They automatically get undervalued and the superior Seahawks are +1 here?
This system applies to the PATRIOTS as well so I’m combining their writeup here.
Raw numbers are projecting: SEAHAWKS 28 EAGLES 24 win for Seattle with the points
and…
Raw numbers are projecting: PATRIOTS 31 CHARGERS 23 win for New England as the road fav
I would also consider the following bets:
ARIZONA +1
CAROLINA +10
JACKSONVILLE +5
CLEVELAND +3.5
OAKLAND +8
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
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Some thoughts…

Thoughts:
***Since 2013, raw number (p:ATSm) edges >=6  are 331 – 257 ATS for a 56.3% clip +61.15 units.
If you’re not utilizing the raw numbers that I provide, you’re possibly and probably missing a very large point of the service. Recently, I’ve found that a major reviewer of my site didn’t even know about the raw numbers (even though links to them are all over every single email every day, all over the website, and put clear and concisely on the Paypal sign up page when you first subscribe). The official selections that I provide are only half the battle and the raw numbers are the perhaps the epitome of this service. We’ll make slow stead gains for sure over the long haul, but just always keep in mind that the raw numbers are there for a reason: I try to be selective in the emails. I do things my own way BASED OFF OF the Raw Numbers. You could do better and I encourage you to try or experiment with some of your own systems. One of the great things, for me, about running ProComputerGambler is that you guys are very friendly with me. I regularly chat with so many of you and I humbly admit that I’ve learned a lot from you guys! You guys want me to do well and I want you to do well. I’ve said it before anyways: you don’t have to be the best at picking games. You just have to have the discipline and nerves of steel to stick to your guns through thick and thin and always remind yourself that the ups and downs don’t matter as in over 10 years, I’ve never had a losing year. I’ve had a few marginal years, but nothing a big time mutual fund wouldn’t lust over. I’ll not-so-humbly boast that THIS is precisely where I am useful: I can give you winners good enough to make money and guide you in a way that I know is a wise investment path. Lastly, and on the subject of not having to be the best one out there at calling winners; remember this: you might be able to call winners very well, but the Professional Gambler is just 1 bet better out of 20 than Joe Gambler. It is that smidgen of a difference that adds up over time.
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New England Top Play Lost…

Thoughts / News:
*Russell Wilson is in the top 15 guys in the league running the ball. He’s 30 yards behind Eddie Lacy and has more touchdowns than LeSean McCoy.
*Seattle Seahawk’s Richard Sherman protests Marshawns Lynch’s $100k not-talking-to-the-media fine http://bcove.me/2ib3aump
This season, the St. Louis Rams beat the Seahawks who beat the Broncos who beat the Cardinals who beat the Eagles and lost to the Cowboys who lost to the 49ers who lost to the Bears who lost to the Patriots who lost to the Dolphins who lost to the Bills who lost to the Chargers who lost to the Chiefs who lost to the Raiders. This is what makes NFL difficult to cap. Any given Sunday…http://i.imgur.com/GRC6lT1.png
NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) Week 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W) | Wk 11 (L)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-1 (87.5%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK 12 RAW NUMBERS

Sunday, November 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount
New England 21 4:25 PM ET New England +3 TOP PLAY 1.00
Green Bay 26 NE ML +152 0.65
In Green Bay (TOP PLAY):
“Do you see any similarities between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and how they’ve elevated their games?”
Belichick: They both wear number 12  Quote [Belichick leaves the building].
Bill Bellichick has always been vague with the media. Never inciting anything and just showing up and whooping ass. Might as well have said that they’re both quarterbacks, they sometimes make touchdowns and throw balls. I was surprised to see his team as underdogs here as they’re ranked first in the league on the Sagarin USA today chart, their opponent, the Packers struggled this season and with a fairly easy schedule comparatively, Patriots are leading the league in points scored adjusted to non defensive scoring, Packers are second to last in the league for offensive possessions after the Saints (troubles on defense?), Patriots 1st in the league for average scoring possessions, they’re in the top five in the league for fewest QB getting sacked’s, Packers second in the league next to the over rated Eagles for non-offensive touchdowns scored, over on defense, the Packers are struggling averaging a top 10 bad TY’s per game at 369.8 while the Patriots are over in the top 15. Packers are in the top 5 in the league for worst rushing yards per attempt defenses. If there has ever been somebody who could be versitile in a tough game, it is Bill Belichick. If somehow the sky falls and Brady can’t make it to beast Gronkowski there is plenty of room to hit the Packers shoddy rush defense up for some extra pickup yards.
 
Alright now hold on tight:
 
*Tom Brady is 13-4 ATS as an underdog. 10-6 SU 12-4 ATS with a line -0.5 to +6.5.
**Bill Belichick and the Patriots are 50-9 SU (+8.76 ppg, 84.7%) after allowing 10 or fewer points last game.
**The Patriots are on fire right now and Bill Belichick and the Patriots are 35-2-0 (+10.78 ppg, 94.6%) SU after covering the spread in 6 or more of their last 8 games.
Based on those things getting the Patriots at +152 right now how they’re playing if a bettor’s dream come true.
I am aware of the level that Rodgers is playing at in home game; however, the Patriot’s secondary is unlike the teams Rodgers has been up against: Eagles, Saints, Vikings, Bears, Panthers. The Patriots defense has dealt with the Lions (“best defense in NFL”), Colts, Broncos in their last 3. Also interesting: the most similar offense we’ve seen the Packers defense go up against was theNew Orleans Saints in which they allowed a massive 44 points and lost the game.
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