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NHL Winner + System (Won as well)

I’ve been logging systems into the database all morning here is one I liked.
I wanted to say why it is good and why it is not the best.
SYSTEM: Sub .500 road dogs off of a conference win as a dog greater than 5 points are 188-138-4 (57.7%) ATS and profitable on the moneyline.
Why it is not the best system I’ve ever given you:
I count 7 parameters. That is sort of a lot. You could actually argue just 2 parameters depending on how you define ‘parameter.’ For example, some people might say conference win as a dog is 3 parameters while some might just consider that as one. Second, Logic? I think the logic is here, but you can’t be positive.
Why it is a GOOD / VIABLE system (there are definitely more pros with this one):
1. Logic: A team just won an important, difficult game as a medium to large sized underdog. They proved everyone wrong. They’ll get a boost of steam while everyone will be thinking fluke.
2. The moneyline is profitable, in this case over 70 units at a just 25.2% SU win rate! I like when the moneyline is profitable AS WELL AS the spread.
3. 330 game sample
4. +2.77 Z-Score. That is solid. 1 or 1.5 is considered good and 2 is statistically, considered, very possibly NOT the product of pure chance.
5. 7 out of 9 profitting seasons! Not only does this span a large section of CBB history, it wins year in and year out. One year was a marginal loss and the other was way back in 2006. Things have changed since then.
Someone asked me the question:
“Will all of your systems be equal?”
Here’s my answer:
ROUGHLY, YES, they will all be worth the same. Some of them are more valuable, but the overall difference is going to be negligible. I might make a note is one system is an extremely good system. If you’re not sure, you can always ask me, but it is just my OPINION as another statistician. Again tho…
When in doubt, here are the things that I really like to see in a system:
*Simplicity. Few parameters.
*Logic
*Large sample. I don’t take 5-0, 10-0, systems too seriously.
*Winning seasons to losing seasons.
*Lots of history to support.
*Consistency over seasons.
SYSTEM Today is active on Miami Ohio +13.5 or Miami Ohio +1000
A regular play like any other or a pass.
Systems are only about a third of my overall capping. I’m passing for now. I may come back later and hit Miami if the line moves some more.
TWO TEAM PARLAY WINNER!
#069 Minnesota ML
#064 Montreal ML
(0.5 units to win 1 unit)
 

*Raw numbers basics for NHL are 118-61 +30.19 Units this season.*

Good luck,
Tom
=== EMAIL RECORDS ===
(Last Update 1.26.2014)
NFL 2014: 44-35-2 +11.55 Units
NHL 2014: 36-22-8 +9.43 Units

NBA 2014: 50-34-4 +6.04 Units
NCAABB 2014: 14-22-2 -8 02 Units

RECORDS SINCE APR. 2010:
3870-3467-187 +610.21 Units
This service provides sports opinions and research before and after the start of any game. This Procomputergambler newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and does not promote or advocate gambling. Wagers, wager amounts and sports selections are presented for sports tracking purposes only and do not represent real money or real wagers.This service does not allow users to place wagers or deposit funds for wagers. Additionally, none of the given information is to be construed as an act of transmitting information as to wagers, betting odds, or changes in betting odds.
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Free NFL Conference Week Write-up

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) Week 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W) | Wk 11 (L) | Wk 13 (L) | Wk 17 (L) | Wild (W+W)
2014 NFL Top Play Total – 9-4 (69.2%) ATS

NFL 2014 Conference RAW NUMBERS
Posted here:  http://www.procomputergambler.com/nfl/ 

Last week: What a game in Foxborough. If you didn’t see it, go back and watch a replay. An instant classic. Hard to come by a legitimate game where the players actually won the game these days…
***NFL PLAYOFF SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
*Playoff underdogs on their second or more straight playoff road game are 26-14-0 (65.0%) ATS and 34-5-1 (87.2%) in a 6 point teaser.
Active to PLAY ON the Indianapolis Colts +7
==================================
*Patriots are 12-1-0 on Turf (artificial) this season and 1-3 on grass. They’re at home (turf) again….but let’s keep this in mind in case they look real good this week and then the Super Bowl is in San Francisco on grass. Would be a major check against the Patriots for me.
My favorite comedian Bill Burr actually chimed into this Cowboy stuff again this week:
Last week: “Can you let the players win the ****in’ game?”
This week: “I was going to throw the tv out the window….”
I hear ya Burr. If the play looked good, it entertained everyone, it looked like real football, then let it stand. In my heart of hearts, the Packers did not win that game. I hate sounding like a broken record, but two teams now lost because of asinine or inconceivable officiating.
The other thing is karma….people saying that the Cowboys lost because of karma?! What kind of crap is that? The Lions lost because the refs skrewed them and the Cowboys lost because the refs skrewed them. Simple as that. Sorry if you’re a Packers fan or a Cowboys fan; ask yourself how you truly feel about the Packers winning that game. What does that win do for you as a fan? That’s what I want to know. Anyways, after seeing how sketchy these refs are, I can’t say I’d want to touch the Packers this week even with 7.5 points. I’m literally not touching the Packers because I think the refs will have a little bias against the Packers this week because of how badly they’re getting grilled again. All of the grilling is deserved. They’re awful.
======
PCG Playoff Rankings from end of regular season:
1. Seattle Seahawks (W)
2. Denver Broncos (L)
3. Baltimore Ravens (awesome defense getting 25% more sacks / game than Texans) (W) > (L)
4. Green Bay Packers (MVP alert; fade if that’s the case) (Almost lost (W))
5. New England Patriots (W)
6. Indianapolis Colts (W)
7. Dallas Cowboys (W) > (L)
8. Detroit Lions (L)
9. Arizona Cardinals (L)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (too one dimensional) (L)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (L)
12. Carolina Panthers (WORST) (Won against one of the worst QB’s I’ve seen) > (L)
 
Not too bad.
So we’re down to:
1. Seattle Seahawks
4. Green Bay Packers
5. New England Patriots
6. Indianapolis Colts
Lines are sharp as can be this week.
::popcorn munching continues::
THE SELECTIONS: Passing…
Well, I’ll give you one thing, but is just for shits…
Two Team Teaser 6.5 pts:
#304 Indianapolis Colts +13
#302 Seattle / Green Bay OVER 40
Amount: Beer Money (0.01 units)
Again, *Playoff underdogs on their second or more straight playoff road game are 26-14-0 (65.0%) ATS and 34-5-1 (87.2%) in a 6 point teaser (Colts).
The Colts are getting undervalued, but man if the Patriots aren’t good. I recommend putting no more that about $5 or $10 on this bet.
Think about it: I had the Ravens projected as a strong candidate to win the Super Bowl and the Patriots took ‘em out in one of the best NFL games I’ve seen. What does that say about the Pats? Of course, I do have a system where you fade a team in the playoffs that just won in a high scoring game. They usually end up getting overrated.
I’m putting my opinion (not my money) on Andrew Luck this weekend to cover 13 points against the Pats. 14 points would be nice and I think some people could get that as a number of books have indy at +7 and you could tease 7 points to +14 (a significant key number…see below):
As for Seattle and Green Bay. The main reason I want to play this one is simply because we can cross THE most key number of all NFL totals : 41 (see below).
Raw numbers have an 80% chance on the head of the teaser hitting for the over in Seattle. You don’t see that often…
The other thing is that these are public fades….something I’ve learned to put a little bit less weight into in my capping; nevertheless:
Under 45% are on the Colt’s spread. Sharps are all over it.
Under 45% are on the SEA/GB Over. People think that Rodgers will look like he did last week and get no points up. Total is set at an overreaction to that theory. It may be true.
Anyways…this is a part of the season where bettor’s lose their composure. If I saw something good this week I’d bet it. I don’t, Everything is so close. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy these games. If I see one bullshit referree call, I turn the game off and go do something constructive. Be looking for the refs to skrew over the Packers this week because the “gotta get it right.”
NFL Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
Extra thoughts for NFL this week:
***Pete Carroll is 35-9-0 (+9.16 ppg, 79.5%) SU and 31-12-1 ATS at home with the Seahawks.
*****33-6-0 SU and 28-10-1 ATS line < +4 points
*Since 2012, teams that just beat the Denver Broncos are 8-3-0 SU and 8-3-0 ATS in their next game.

Colts and Luck are legit. Let’s not hype Patriots play up too much yet.
**The Colts are 11-2-0 SU and 10-3-0 ATS this season playing on under 7 days rest.
Pagano is 22-7 SU in the same situation with the Colts
*****Bill Belichick is 54-14-0 SU (79.4%, plus over 45 units) with the Pats after a game where they picked up UNDER 85 rushing yards.

He’s the correction king. My fantasy Running Backs for this week will be guys on the Patriots.
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9-3 Yesterday in CBB

9-3 Yesterday on College Basketball Raw Number Top Selections

Capture

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2-0 In NBA Today…

Sport Game Score Pick Amount Result Units
NBA Atlanta 105 Atlanta -7 100 WON +1.00
Boston 91
NBA San Antonio 98 San Antonio -4.5 100 WON +1.00
Charlotte 93

**Since 2008, the Spurs are 31-8 (79.5%) SU and 25-12-2 (67.6%) ATS as road favorites off a loss.

*This season, the Hawks are 12-4-2 (ATS) and 15-3 SU after a road game.
*Since 2008, home dogs off of 2+ straight road wins are a let down 12-29-0 (29.3%) ATS and just 6-35 SU. Fade Charlotte.
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Today’s Email : 1-0 +$200.00

Packers -4.5 comes real close. Some sort of money has been on the Cowboys pounding this line way down now. I just honestly don’t know how to read this game though and I sincerely feel this is one game to stay away from. If anyone calls this game and is right about it, I think it will be due to luck. It could either be Green Bay blowing out the Cowboys since their true stats are just stellar compared to the Cowboys if you adjust to the (easy) teams the Boys have faced. On the other hand, I can see Dallas pulling the upset due to how the media has been treating their ‘illegitimate’ win against the Lions. On the other hand, weather conditions favor the Packers. Also, Rodgers is injured, but I actually love betting for a key player on an injury who is deciding to play the game. They go into a primal mode.There are just so many ways to look at this game and I think that I’d just be pulling something out of my bum if I gave a call on this game. Value WAS on the Cowboys, but now I have to say, at -4.5, Packers would be my beer money lean.
As for Indy and Denver: the Dog (Indy +8.5) is the lean simply because of how poorly home teams off of a bye have done in the playoffs historically (ATS). On the other hand, we have the Broncos rated much better than the Colts. They’ve also done great as home favorites with a lot of points though this season; compare that to the Patriots who you can never count on to cover the lumber in Foxborough. This one is a pass, but I might personally take Indy if the line hits INDY +10. You never know, totally possible.. I’m happy going 1-0 on a regular play on the Ravens although, I think they were good enough to make it to the Super Bowl. Hats off to the Patriots yesterday. There was one stupid call: the one they didn’t call on Dez Bryant but called on Harbaugh, but I’m not as upset about that one because it was far from game deciding. Still bullshit though…let the players play. for that trick play to Edelman. I happened to put Edelman in my fantasy team this week and got some nice points for him throwing a TD as a wide receiver. For me, that game was the Superbowl. Incredibly fun to watch.
 
So close yesterday. Came down to LA who lost by a goal in a shootout. Would have been around a +400 return. These parlays have been great, but that was a win I could have used. Coming THAT close kills me; just gotta keep the grind going though.
Nothing for today.
MINNESOTA +230
and
WINNIPEG +170
come close…
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Cleveland 84 9:00 PM ET Sacramento -2.5 1.00
Sacramento 103    WINNER!
SYSTEM: Since 2009, Home Favorites off of a home loss playing on Sunday are 86-18 (82.7% plus over 50 units) SU and 65-35-4 ATS.
A day of the week seems arbitrary; however, I’ve successfully used the parameter for many years now especially in MLB. I think that there is a certain significance with some days over others though: Sunday is the last day before the weekend is over. It correlates with attendance for the home team rooting them on. A Wednesday on the other hand I think is arbitrary and would consider any system containing that as the product of normal variance. You decide though….this is one I personally keep on me and it is active on the KINGS -2.5 today.
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Top NBA Play Wins…

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Dallas (W) 96 7:30 PM ET Dallas -6 1.00
Brooklyn 88    WINNER!

An old system I have out:
Since 1995, Road favorites (no greater than -10.5 off of 3 or more straight games where they put up over 105 points now off of no rest (b2b) or 1 single day’s rest are an incredibly massive 183-103-7 (64.0%) ATS.

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Wild Card Top Plays Win 2-0

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) Week 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W) | Wk 11 (L) | Wk 13 (L) | Wk 17 (L)
2014 NFL Top Play Total – 9-4 (69.2%) ATS

NFL 2014 Wild Card RAW NUMBERS
Posted here:  http://www.procomputergambler.com/nfl/ 
Last week: We went for it on fourth and long with Zimmer and the Vikings and missed by just two yards, I mean points. We should have just taken a chip shot and gotten those 2 points; I mean Zimmer taking the 3. Wait a minute. I don’t even know what I’m talking about here; my head is still spinning from that one….story of my season last week; which actually turned out well….somehow. Anyways, the playoffs are here. Congratulations if the team you’re a fan of made it this far. I have some thoughts, but first let’s get the rankings out there. There were a number of teams in this crazy year that were BETTER than another team that actually made it in. Hats off to (in order starting with the best): Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, 49ers, New Orleans Saints(without Rob Ryan, they’d have made it easily).
PCG Playoff Rankings:
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos (UNDERRATED)
3. Baltimore Ravens (awesome defense getting 25% more sacks / game than Texans)
4. Green Bay Packers (MVP alert; fade if that’s the case)
5. New England Patriots (bumped down)
6. Indianapolis Colts
7. Dallas Cowboys (OVERRATED)
8. Detroit Lions
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (too one dimensional)
11. Cincinnati Bengals
12. Carolina Panthers (WORST)
Note: The two teams that I said are under/over rated are in the position I think they should be (partly) because of that.
Note2: Patriots bumped down because they failed to beat the Bills. The last 3 Super Bowls Belichick has won included blowouts for their last games of regular season. I think the title goes to another team this year.
Note3: The Panthers are terrible. How did they get in? Rob Ryan; that’s how; glad we stopped betting the Saints when I began to realize how bad he is as a leader of the defense and play caller. I choose to poke a stick at Ryan by the way because it is only fair. Brees seems to be the one getting all of the blame and I consider him one of the best all time NFL QBs. Drew Brees is tied for 1st in the league for passing yards this season. With an offense that good and such a meager record it should show you how bad the defense is that they’re working with.
Note4: On this year’s MVP: Important to note that the Texans are just 21st in the league for defensive sacks per game. JJ Watt is the only one pulling them off. My argument is against Watt being the league MVP; I think that an MVP is someone who takes their team to the playoffs. A defensive captain or a leader on offense who rallies everyone around him.
Note5: The Packers would be higher up if it weren’t for Rodgers probably going to be MVP. If he is, I don’t recommend betting the Packers. There is something about a QB MVP I don’t like betting for. Not that it inflates the spread so much as it puts a fat and happy accomplished mindset into the player which isn’t needed or, I think wanted for the good of a team.
Anyways, those are my projected rankings mostly based on Numbers and seasoned with my own personal touch. We’ll see how correct or incorrect I am in roughly a month!
Oh hell, I know you guys want me to predict a Super Bowl winner: Most value is in Baltimore at +4553 odds. 
THE SELECTIONS:
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Baltimore (W) 30 8:15 PM ET Baltimore +3 2.00
Pittsburgh 17    TOP PLAY WINNER!
Last week, I mentioned that the stuffed suits were against Denver, against Indy, for Houston, against Bills, against Saints, against Buccs. Saints and Buccs cancel out, but if you faded the media last week you went 4-0 and covered by an average of +11.4 points! I’ve always advocated fading the media; they always seem to be wrong, but they never keep track. Course, I’m keeping track and this weekend, the ole stuffed suits don’t like the Bengals, the love the Panthers for some reason, they of course love the Steelers, and now they like the Colts again. Chuck Pagano doesn’t need their advice anymore. Unfortunately, they’ve been speaking highly of the Ravens as well; however, not to the degree they are the Steelers.
*Baltimore picks up some momentum here knocking off the Steelers and takes it far into the playoffs; perhaps to the Super Bowl. That’s my bold call for you…do it 1000 times and you’d be rich.
*Tough division rivalry. My selection (or lean) usually goes to the points for me as the average margin of victory between these two teams since 1996 is just 1.39 points. Just 0.25 since 2002 which is #1 for tightest games in the league since that date. I suggest taking the spread here and forget the moneyline. I got it for +110 odds (we’ll grade it for our usual spread odds though). Most of the public is betting the Steelers and the books are obviously keeping the line from going to -3.5 to keep that Steeler action coming in. Possible trap. Both teams are a bit beat up, but the most significant injury is with Le’Veon Bell who has been downgraded to miss this game now. This is so significant because he is a huge contribution to Big Ben being the leader in the league for passing yards (well tied with Drew Brees): Le’Veon Bell has been the top fantasy RB pick this season. He’s in it almost every play be it a run or a play action with QB Ben Roethlisberger. Having options is what leads to huge yards and wins. The Steeler’s offense lacks options now and the Ravens defense loves sacking as I mentioned before. The Steelers are going to need a lot of luck to get more than 20 points up on the board today. Time for their sub par defense to rally if they want the win here today. And that could absolutely happen, but more than likely the result is where the momentum has been on that end of things.
Due to the massive differential in my power rankings, and how much I believe the Steelers are misunderstood, I’m making this one a Top Play selection.
*Harbaugh is just 3-6 SU though vs. the Steelers when playing them on the road. That holds me back a bit here, but no bet is perfect. Very difficult to play in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Expect a hard time for the Baltimore offense, but hell; that’s what everyone is thinking on this one and the line is just a stubborn 3 points.
On the other hand, Harbaugh is 17-4 SU after two or more straight losses vs. the spread. Good spot here for the Ravens. Undervalued.
We’ve got a cruising / streaking home favorite facing a non-streaking Ravens team. That is a fade on the Steelers. Classic spot.
RAW NUMBERS PROJECTING:
RAVENS 24 STEELERS 20
Should be close, but we’ve got the 3 points.
Also, consider a bet on Steeler’s team total Under as we have a team the is great at pressuring the QB.
Adding:

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Detroit 20 4:40 PM ET Detroit +7.5 2.00
Dallas 24    TOP PLAY WINNER!

Alright here it is. Second one for this week is, guess what, a Top Play. So two this week.

Here’s where I have these two teams ranked:
7. Dallas Cowboys (OVERRATED)
8. Detroit Lions
Very close. Here’s why the Cowboys are overrated. Look who they’ve played:
49ers (lost), Titans, Rams, Saints, Texans, Giants, Redskins (lost), Cardinals (lost), Jaguars, Giants (barely won), Eagles, Bears.
Folks, the Cowboys have had the #1 EASIEST SCHEDULE in the NFL. They’re overrated for, at some books -8 points!
…but that seems to happen a lot:
Since 2010, the Dallas Cowboys are 8-23-0 (25.8%) ATS as home favorites. 18-13 SU.
I’m not counting on the Lions to win this one, but I am counting on it to be close.
SYSTEM: Since 2002, road dogs in the playoffs playing their second consecutive road game or more are 32-18-0 (64%) ATS.
The Detroit Lions are being undervalued here. This is based on a much larger system where a team on their second or more straight road game is undervalued at 947-832-46 (53.2%) ATS. Consider the Bengals and Cardinals as well.
RAW NUMBERS PROJECTING:
LIONS 20 COWBOYS 20
Tight game…unless stuff like what happened in the East Carolina game happens…by the way, I have to say: didn’t I call that right? 471 passing yard to 100 something. On paper East Carolina had it by a mile but still somehow managed to lose as per my usual luck.. Alas, 6 turnover in that game. C’mon. Hit the Under despite a plethora of bullshit which I guess I’m thankful for.
Let’s get these two NFL plays. Super rare by the way for me to have two top plays same week and especially rare in the playoffs.
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Week 17 Top Play Lost

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) Week 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W) | Wk 11 (L) | Wk 13 (L) | Wk 17 (L)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-4 (63.6%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK 17 RAW NUMBERS
FOR SUNDAY:
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Chicago 9 1:00 PM ET Minnesota -6 2.00
Minnesota (W) 13    (TOP PLAY) Lost

I wanted to send this one out before the day is done today as it is our TOP PLAY for the final week of regular season and it is a favorite. Favorites tend to move against us as you get up to gametime; however, this is a funny one: the public and the media has doubted the Minnesota Vikings all season long never ever realizing that they’re quite a legit team. They almost just knocked off the Miami Dolphins last week if not for a botched referee call followed by a game winning safety for the lucky Dolphins. The Bears on the other hand consist of a failed experiment of a head coach, a bum QB with no drive or motivation, and one of the worst defenses in Bear’s history. This is the Viking’s time to make a big statement that they’re not the worst team in this division.

Before I go on about this play, I want to say that, tomorrow I may follow up with and additional selection or two. BUT here’s what we don’t want to bet in the final week of NFL:
One of the worst betting strategies in any sport and sure enough in the NFL is to say: “well team A has playoff implications and team B has none so team A is the no brainer.” This is one of the squarest ways to do it…let’s take a quick look at what games look like no brainers and possible fades:
baltimore -9 at home over CLEVELAND +9
Consider Cleveland here. Baltimore has a 49.4% shot at the playoffs and you can be sure that the Browns would just love to screw that up. The public will be looking at this one differently: Baltimore must win this game and Cleveland is struggling at the QB position. Over 80% of the public has smothered the Ravens even though they’re carrying the lumber against a tough division rival. I’m not saying Cleveland will be a play, but I’m definitely saying that betting Baltimore would be one of the worst bets you could make this week.
houston -10 at home over JACKSONVILLE +10
Consider Jacksonville here. Houston has a 13.7% shot at the playoffs. They must win this game and the Jaguars are very bad. Surprisingly though, the public is betting this game sharp and going with the Jaguars. Interesting. We won’t touch this game at all.
Anyways, back to the Vikings (TOP PLAY):
I was surprised with this one. I’m surprised every week with the Vikings by how bad the public perceives them to be. This line opened at -7.5 for Minnesota which I already thought looked like a great bet on the Vikings and then the public brought is all the way down here to -6 where I’m going to strike. Last week Jimmy Clausen showed Bear’s fans everything that Jay lacks: balls, determination, passion. He got 14 points up against the top defense in the NFL last week, while, in his last start, Jay put up only 15 against possibly the worst defense in the league which is relatively an enormous difference favoring Clausen of all people. This week Bridgewater proves that Jay is the worst QB in this division.
Trends:
The Vikings are 12-0 ATS as a home favorite after a road game in which they more than 10 points more than their season-to-date average.
*Since 1990, Week 17 teams off of a loss with 1-6 wins on the season dial it up 58-26-2 (69%) ATS as long as they’re not playing on the road from home.
**Home Favorites are 25-8-0 (+8.48 ppg, 75.8%) SU and 23-8-2 (74.2%) ATS in this dynamic.
*Since 2012, the Minnesota Vikings are 11-1-0 (+6.17 ppg, 91.7%) ATS vs. bad pass defenses allowing 61% or more completion percentages per game in the second half of the season.
*The Bears are just 12-38-0 SU (-8.94 ppg, 24%) and 12-35-3 (25.5%) ATS on the road in December games since 1989.
*Jay Cutler is around 40% ATS in all of his starts as an NFL QB. Fade him. There is a reason for that percentage. He got a fat deal and doesn’t give a crap about Football. Maybe now we see why the best head coach in the game loves drafting unknowns at low salary caps (Bill Belichick – the master of turning nobodies into great players and team-mates).
Although this game has no playoff implications, it means a lot for the young Vikings team under an Mike Zimmer and with Teddy Bridgewater. Meanwhile, the Bears are ripping the team apart; many players are gone, Trestman is gone; I can’t see the Bears putting up too big of a fight.
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NFL Week 17 Rankings

THE GREAT:
Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos
New England Patriots

THE GOOD:
Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
Cincinnati Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills

THE OVERRATED
Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans
Detroit Lions
Pittsburgh Steelers

THE UNDERRATED
Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers
San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders

THE BAD
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
Minnesota Vikings
Washington
Cleveland Browns
New York Giants
Chicago Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

THE AWFUL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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NFL Week 16 Results

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) Week 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W) | Wk 11 (L) | Wk 13 (L)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-3 (70%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK 16 RAW NUMBERS
NFL Week 16 Ratings:
Note: There is only one now in “THE GREAT” category. Last week (from time of release), the top category went 3-1 ATS with the Packers losing; however, we had their opponent (the Bills) in the underrated category which went 4-2. So not really a bad chart to be looking at. I think that some notable things for this week off of the chart would be that the Eagles are a good team that has now lost its over rated status, despite having an MVP, the Texans are overrated, the Dolphins are now underrated after holding a seat in the top category, the Rams are underrated and are tied with the leader of the AFC South and the Raiders and Jags aren’t Awful, but two other teams are. Final thought of the week: Drew Brees is currently the top fantasy QB and was on top last week. I’m tired of people asking the question: what happened with Brees? Nothing happened; he just plays on a team with a bum defensive coordinator and is trying to pick up slack. This should be a testament to how good Brees really is….he has led the Saints to the number one spot in the division now (and it says a whole lot more than it looks like in my opinion).
News / Facts:
*Bears starting Jimmy Clausen; Jay Cutler benched? Hmm….well this sort of thing usually backfires.
*Michigan offers Harbaugh 6 year $48 million deal. I’d take that personally…skrew the fair-weather 49ers fans.

*Adam Vinatieri is only Kicker this season not to miss. Has made all 28 field goals, and all 46 extra points. The power of age and experience….

*Le’Veon Bell, despite 262 carries for 1,278 yards and 76 receptions for 765 yards, hasn’t fumbled once this year.
*The Buffalo Bills have clinched their first non-losing season in a decade by beating the Green Bay Packers!
*Sanchez is still shitty QB: http://www.gfycat.com/AliveSeriousAlaskanhusky (or form your own opinion).

THE SELECTIONS:

Saturday, December 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount
San Diego (W) 38 8:25 PM ET San Diego +1 1.00
San Francisco 35    WINNER!

Sunday, December 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 35 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +7 1.00
Miami (W) 37    WINNER!
Green Bay (W) 20 1:00 PM ET Green Bay -10* 1.00
Tampa Bay 3    WINNER!
Kansas City 12 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +3 1.00
Pittsburgh (W) 20    LOST
Indianapolis - 4:25 PM ET Indianapolis +3 1.20
Dallas -    Pending…

Monday, December 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Denver - 8:30 PM ET Denver -3 1.20
Cincinnati -    Pending…
I’m going to hit send here so you can get these lines in and then I’ll follow up with a writeup email. I really wanted a top play this week because it has been a while; Denver checks in with so many things, but they’re a public backed clinched team that we can only possibly count on to sharpen their blades for the playoffs.
Stay tuned for writeups on these. Get the lines for now though.
Thought of the day: 
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 37, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

 

WRITEUPS:

San Diego Chargers:

The 49ers resign to play the troll role; while the Chargers have playoff implications in this one. Harbaugh played for his job last week and now I think they’re going to be flat. He’ll either be going to Miami, Oakland or Michigan; San Francisco has some of the most disloyal fans burning Kaepernick jerseys after booing away Alex Smith who is now doing great in KC with reasonable people around him. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS this season at home 3-3 SU. I wouldn’t want to play there…I’m sure I’d get booed out of there in the first two minutes of the game. It may be hard to focus on this game for Harbaugh, Kaepernick, and crew with that going on plus the distraction of where Harbaugh is going to next.
*I’m counting 26 injuries to the 49ers. They’ll have the janitor out on the field on Saturday. That includes Frank Gore questionable who would be the most key injury. This is one of the most unhealthy teams.
****MEGA TREND (Thanks to Mitch and Ali): Teams that just played the Seahawks go 32-42-1 SU and 23-48-4 ATS in their next games. OUCH. The Seahawks are brutal…hence the massive injury list? That’s 19-26 SU and 12-29-4 (70.7% to fade) ATS if playing at home next. 49ers are going to be hurt and flat and emotionally crushed here while the Chargers will do their very best to work on a legit, 15.7% chance left for playoffs.
Raw numbers are projecting: CHARGERS 24 49ERS 17 win for San Diego on the road plus the points
Minnesota Vikings:
SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team off of a 1,2 or 3 point close loss goes 42-11-0 (79.2%) SU the following week against a team that just allowed 37+ points.

*MEGA SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team playing at least one consecutive game on the road might be undervalued having gone 941-829-46 (53.2%) ATS. That’s 490-378-20 (56.5%) ATS since 2003. Active this week on the Packers -10, Vikings +7, Broncos -3. Take this system to the bank folks. It has a contrarian nature so I think it should hold up for many more years before anyone seriously begins to catch on.
Raw numbers are projecting: VIKINGS 18 DOLPHINS 17 possible upset for Minnesota on the road plus the points
Green Bay Packers:
*MEGA SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team playing at least one consecutive game on the road might be undervalued having gone 941-829-46 (53.2%) ATS. That’s 490-378-20 (56.5%) ATS since 2003. Active this week on the Packers -10, Vikings +7, Broncos -3.
Raw numbers are projecting: PACKERS 41 BUCCS 17 win for Green Bay on the road minus the points
Kansas City Chiefs:
Kansas City has a great pass rush and great blitzing. I love the Chiefs this season. Raw numbers aside, I have Kansas City in my underrated category and the Steelers in my overrated category. That should make this a play on its own….however:
Raw numbers are projecting: CHIEFS 31 STEELERS 27 upset win for Kansas City on the road plus the points
Indianapolis Colts:
***MEGA TREND: The Underdog is 53-23-1 (69.7%) ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
*The Cowboys are just 7-23-0 (23.3%) ATS as home favorites since 2010. 0-5 ATS for -3 points or less.
Raw numbers are projecting: COLTS 31 COWBOYS 27 win for Indianapolis on the road plus the points
Denver Broncos:
*MEGA SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team playing at least one consecutive game on the road might be undervalued having gone 941-829-46 (53.2%) ATS. That’s 490-378-20 (56.5%) ATS since 2003. Active this week on the Packers -10, Vikings +7, Broncos -3.
Raw numbers are projecting: BRONCOS 31 BENGALS 20 win for the Broncos on the road minus the points
I would also consider the following bets:
BEARS +10
OAKLAND +7
SEAHAWKS -8
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