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7-1 Now on NFL Top Plays

NFL Top Play Links: Week 1 (W) | Week 2 (W) | Week 3 (W) | Week 4 (W) | Week 5 (W) | Week 6 (L) | Week 7 (W+W)

Top NFL Play Total – 7-1 (87.5%) ATS
 
NFL 2014 WEEK EIGHT RAW NUMBERS

Sunday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 19 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +3* 2.00
Tampa Bay 13    (Top Play) WINNER!
Green Bay - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -1.5 2.00
New Orleans -    (Top Play) WINNER!

Very rarely does it happen, but we have two top plays this week. I guess we’re making up for not having one from last week…

In Tampa Bay (Top Play):
We’ve got the Buccs ranked 30th in the league. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t a ton better, but the difference is the schedule they’ve had.
Here’s who the Vikings have played: New England must win for NE), New Orleans (must win for NOR), Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo (who are better than people think).
Here’s who the Buccs have played: Carolina, St. Louis, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans….mostly garbage teams and they’re only 1-5. At least Minnesota got 2 wins.
Since 2003, teams get undervalued if they play two consecutive road games in the second one (or more): going 471-359-20 (56.7%) ATS. That is a huge thing to pinwheel selections off of or use as a filter. I definately recommend keeping this one in your back pocket. Teams to consider or not bet against this weekend under this system include: Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Texans. All with modest lines…
Also, the Vikings are off of what many people think is a disheveling loss. How can you pick yourself up after a 1 point loss? Well, it turns out that since 1990, road dogs off of a 1 point loss on the road are 15-15 SU and 20-10-0 (66.7%) ATS.
*The Tampa Bay Bucc’s are just 14-29 (-5.56 ppg, 32.6%) SU and 13-29-1 (31%) ATS since 2009 at home.
*The Vikings are 12-0 ATS as a dog the week after a road game in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and committed fewer than five turnovers.
SYSTEM 2: Since 1989, +4 to -4 pt. Home teams that just allowed over 28 points last game are just 31-57-4 (35.2%) ATS in the following week against teams off close losses (1,2 or 3 points).
I love this play. Lots of things add up and it is our second biggest raw number selection. Really, this week, we’re just grinding out the big edges as we always should and filtering down the big marquee Thursday game. The rest is borderline fluff! One thing that scares me about this bet is that the Buccs are home favorites off of a bye week. That is a system in itself….as I’ve said before though, no bet is perfect. Up next….
In New Orleans (Top Play):
Saints in the dome again now with a single point. Man this is an auto bet, but there are so many more reasons to love the Saints here….namely, they are the TOP Raw Number Pick of the week.
This is really similar to the Patriots top play we had a few weeks back: The Patriots were desperate, backed into a corner and forced to show up for the home crowd. All kinds of bad things happen when teams lose games like this one. Drew Brees is an incredibly smart player and he is going to rally his team around the idea that, if we don’t win this one, this season is going to get a whole lot harder than it has already been.
Only 20% of the bets or fewer are on the Saints here which I find shocking. The Saints have made mistakes this season, but it hasn’t been the kind of stuff that makes them a truly bad team.
*Common Power rankings (such as Sagarin) still have the Saints in the Top 15 teams of the league…and they’re 2-4! They’ve even had what would seem to be a fairly easy strength of schedule. I know 6 games feels like a lot, but I say, the Saints are just being slow starters and get back to .500 soon.
*Green Bay looks unstoppable right now, but I think, like the Broncos, they’re riding high and may not take this game seriously enough. The Dome is an incredibly hard place to play….although if you just relax, that tends to help things. Green Bay lost to two good teams : Seattle and Detroit and then went on to beat a whole bunch of lower tier teams. This will be their most difficult game in a while.
**The Saints are 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as an underdog.
**They’re 25-4-0 SU and 23-5-1 (82.1%) ATS since October 31st, 2010 as home favorites.

 

*The Packers are 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week.

Like I said, riding high….
*The Saints are 2-4 but they’ve only had 2 home games so far this season….they’ve won both of them.
*Sean Payton and Drew Brees are 16-4-0 SU +13.8 ppg, and 16-4-0 ATS (80%) with the Saints after a 1 to 6 point close loss.
Good luck on these. You can pass on the Chargers and just take the Vikings and/or Saints if you’d like…..or if you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: http://www.procomputergambler.com/nfl/
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 3
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Oct. 27th NHL Selection

Let’s go ahead with Vancouver. Like I said, The raw numbers have been wildly successful so far sitting now at 26-9 (74.2%) +11.55 Unitsso far this season.

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Washington 2 9:30 PM ET Vancouver -1 +133 1.00
Vancouver 4    Winner!
Good luck on this one. Awesome win on top play 1 of 2 in NFL. Go Saints for tonight!
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6-1 Now On NFL Top Plays

NFL Top Play Links: Week 1 (W) | Week 2 (W) | Week 3 (W) | Week 4 (W) | Week 5 (W) | Week 6 (L)
 
NFL 2014 WEEK EIGHT RAW NUMBERS

Sunday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 19 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +3* 2.00
Tampa Bay 13    (Top Play) WINNER!
Green Bay - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -1.5 2.00
New Orleans -    (Top Play) Pending…

Very rarely does it happen, but we have two top plays this week. I guess we’re making up for not having one from last week…

In Tampa Bay (Top Play):
We’ve got the Buccs ranked 30th in the league. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t a ton better, but the difference is the schedule they’ve had.
Here’s who the Vikings have played: New England must win for NE), New Orleans (must win for NOR), Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo (who are better than people think).
Here’s who the Buccs have played: Carolina, St. Louis, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans….mostly garbage teams and they’re only 1-5. At least Minnesota got 2 wins.
Since 2003, teams get undervalued if they play two consecutive road games in the second one (or more): going 471-359-20 (56.7%) ATS. That is a huge thing to pinwheel selections off of or use as a filter. I definately recommend keeping this one in your back pocket. Teams to consider or not bet against this weekend under this system include: Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Texans. All with modest lines…
Also, the Vikings are off of what many people think is a disheveling loss. How can you pick yourself up after a 1 point loss? Well, it turns out that since 1990, road dogs off of a 1 point loss on the road are 15-15 SU and 20-10-0 (66.7%) ATS.
*The Tampa Bay Bucc’s are just 14-29 (-5.56 ppg, 32.6%) SU and 13-29-1 (31%) ATS since 2009 at home.
*The Vikings are 12-0 ATS as a dog the week after a road game in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and committed fewer than five turnovers.
SYSTEM 2: Since 1989, +4 to -4 pt. Home teams that just allowed over 28 points last game are just 31-57-4 (35.2%) ATS in the following week against teams off close losses (1,2 or 3 points).
I love this play. Lots of things add up and it is our second biggest raw number selection. Really, this week, we’re just grinding out the big edges as we always should and filtering down the big marquee Thursday game. The rest is borderline fluff! One thing that scares me about this bet is that the Buccs are home favorites off of a bye week. That is a system in itself….as I’ve said before though, no bet is perfect. Up next….
In New Orleans (Top Play):
Saints in the dome again now with a single point. Man this is an auto bet, but there are so many more reasons to love the Saints here….namely, they are the TOP Raw Number Pick of the week.
This is really similar to the Patriots top play we had a few weeks back: The Patriots were desperate, backed into a corner and forced to show up for the home crowd. All kinds of bad things happen when teams lose games like this one. Drew Brees is an incredibly smart player and he is going to rally his team around the idea that, if we don’t win this one, this season is going to get a whole lot harder than it has already been.
Only 20% of the bets or fewer are on the Saints here which I find shocking. The Saints have made mistakes this season, but it hasn’t been the kind of stuff that makes them a truly bad team.
*Common Power rankings (such as Sagarin) still have the Saints in the Top 15 teams of the league…and they’re 2-4! They’ve even had what would seem to be a fairly easy strength of schedule. I know 6 games feels like a lot, but I say, the Saints are just being slow starters and get back to .500 soon.
*Green Bay looks unstoppable right now, but I think, like the Broncos, they’re riding high and may not take this game seriously enough. The Dome is an incredibly hard place to play….although if you just relax, that tends to help things. Green Bay lost to two good teams : Seattle and Detroit and then went on to beat a whole bunch of lower tier teams. This will be their most difficult game in a while.
**The Saints are 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as an underdog.
**They’re 25-4-0 SU and 23-5-1 (82.1%) ATS since October 31st, 2010 as home favorites.

*The Packers are 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week.

Like I said, riding high….
*The Saints are 2-4 but they’ve only had 2 home games so far this season….they’ve won both of them.
*Sean Payton and Drew Brees are 16-4-0 SU +13.8 ppg, and 16-4-0 ATS (80%) with the Saints after a 1 to 6 point close loss.
Good luck on these three. You can pass on the Chargers and just take the Vikings and/or Saints if you’d like…..or if you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: http://www.procomputergambler.com/nfl/ 
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
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NCAAF Raw Numbers 12-7 (63.1%)

In week 9, NCAAF Raw Numbers with a projected ATS margin greater than 4.5 went 12-7 (63.1%):
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Swept it in CFL Week 18…

Friday, October 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Saskatchewan 27 9:30 PM ET Over 47.5 WINNER! 0.50
Calgary 40

Saturday, October 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Hamilton 28 4:00 PM ET Hamilton +3.5 WINNER! 1.00
Toronto 23 Under 52.5 WINNER! 1.00
BC Lions 24 7:00 PM ET Winnipeg +5.5 WINNER! 1.00
Winnipeg 26
Three Regular bets for this week.
The three are plays as they check through multiple raw number systems and then Winnipeg didn’t make it that far down the line, but they’re backed by the following system:
SYSTEM: Dogs between 3.5 and 10 points off of 2 or fewer covers in the last 6 games are 58-27-4 (68.2%) ATS.
We’re negative on the season now in CFL….the Blue Bombers and Rough Riders keep choking in these classic wake up spots. Perhaps they are truly bad….that is at least what I think when I have conviction on a bet and I’m let down by the same team more than once. Then again, when you’re grinding out hundreds of games a year like I do, you can’t let that sort of bias creep in. Winnipeg is poised for an upset here. This is a long losing streak for the system (4 games), but it should snap.
Don’t take the OVER in Calgary unless you can get 47.
Line Shopping Reference (by statistical occurrence):
CFL Key Margins of Victory: 3, 2, 4, 1, 7, 5, 10, 6, 8, 9, 18, 11, 13, 21
CFL Key Totals: 57, 51, 43, 47, 38, 44, 65, 50, 40, 56, 53, 41, 46, 52, 61, 45
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NHL Top Play of the Day

NCAAF bets pending as well. We’re going to add another one for today in NHL:

Saturday, October 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Boston 4 7:00 PM ET Boston -112 1.00
Toronto 1  WINNER!

NHL Raw numbers sitting at 22-9 (70.9%) +7.55 Units so far for the season. There are actually four 4 total NHL qualifiers, but Boston will be our top play of the day out of those ones.

*Split bets so far on this game. Maybe bigger money on Toronto so we’ll keep it a regular bet. We’ll have many more of these and its all a grind…no bet is perfect.
*Claude Julien is 174-145 (54.5%, +27.69 units) SU on the road with the Boston Bruins.
**That’s 87-56 (60.8%) +33.01 units SU if the total is over 5 and it is prior to March (early in the season).
Solid coaching trend there.
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3-0 Today in NHL

Saturday, October 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Toronto 0 7:00 PM ET Detroit -124 (Top Play) 1.00
Detroit 1   WINNER!
NY Islanders 1 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -1 +115 0.50
Pittsburgh 3   WINNER!
St. Louis 6 9:00 PM ET St. Louis -121 0.50
Arizona 1    WINNER!
 
A play on the +1 puckline here today for our 3’rd official selection of the year. I’m staying small on this one (to it to win 0.5 units) because it is still early in the season, and not everything adds up for Pittsburgh. I don’t have many games like this one behind us that I can compare to. With that said…
*The New York Islanders are 4-0 with little rest putting up at least 4 goals in each game. Pittsburgh is 2-1 now off of a loss playing a home game. We have lots of indications that NYI takes a break in this game realizing that the season needs some pacing. This may of may not happen, but if that dynamic were to occur, which is likely, it would probably be a blowout for the Penguins.
 
In Detroit:
I keep thinking about how they want to tear down the stadium in Detroit and how the whole city is in shambles. Seems to me that we have an angle here betting the Redwings throughout the season. People in Detroit and from Detroit love their sports teams. It represents some sort of hope for the city that currently doesn’t have much….Anyways, that’s just a thought, its not a reason why this is a play at all. Just something to think about this season maybe.
 
*Most of the bets are actually on the Leafs. I love the. People get down on a team when a key guy is out, but raw numbers take injuries into account and we’re not making as big of a deal about Datsyuk here as other bettor’s are. Seems public bets brought this one down from -140 and here we’ll strike. Might go even lower, but I’m seeing indication of smart money coming in now on the Wings.

Detroit just broke a streak with a blowout win vs. a division rival. I like Babcock in this spot. I pointed out before that the team gets down after the close losses, but they ride momentum very well. This is their spot to play well. Let’s back them with some added value and raw number support.

Good luck, nice win for Purdue by the way. No one saw them coming there, namely the other team.
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8-4 +4.82 Now in MLB Playoffs

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SFO Giants Top Play Wins

If you didn’t watch that Orioles – Royals game yesterday, you must at least watch the highlights. I don’t often watch a baseball game and think, “wow that was pretty cool.” The Royals want this, and I am really appreciating how hard they’re playing and how well. I was predicting the O’s to win the big series this year. I still think they’re that good. Should be a testament to what Kansas City has been able to pull off in these playoffs. Paid off passing yesterday. Again. We’ve only had 1 play in the playoffs that went 1-0. Raw numbers are now 6-3 in the playoffs.
For today, I would say consider the Royals. Like I said, I have rarely seen teams play like this before and it is hard for me to imagine the Orioles making a comeback now with the Royals off of a win playing again at home. On the other hand, everyone else feels that way, and the O’s are now road dogs in a must win spot. Gonzalez looks superior to Vargas here by the numbers, but overall, the Royals have the slight edge. I don’t want to touch this game.
In San Francisco however, we have an official selection:

Wednesday, October 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount
St. Louis 4 8:00 PM ET San Francisco -101 1.00
San Francisco 6    (Top Play) WINNER!

SYSTEM: Since 2004, home teams -110 to +120 off of a win or road team +140 to +115 off of a win in the playoffs are 53-22 (70.7%, +39.76 units, +52.6% roi) SU. That’s 2-0 +2.1 units this season.

Raw numbers projecting a +2.28 run victory for the home team here.
Those two things are enough for the play. I said that I am being selective though so here’s another thought:
*The Giants are winning this one in every category. They’re slugging better, better OBS, better bullpen, better starting pitcher. Not a whole lot of doubt here for me.
***Under Bruce Bochy the Giants are 28-11 (+1.31 rpg, 71.8%, +22.38 units, +52.4% roi) SU in playoff games. 6-2 at home off of a home win.
*Since August 16 this season, the Giants are 13-2 (86.7%, +10.95 units, +47.8% roi) SU at home after being home favorites.
 
2-0 on those leans yesterday. Raw numbers went 3-1. They’re 13-3 for the season so far.
Passing today. Boston was looking good, but no raw number support.
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2-0-1 On NFL Top Raw Numbers Yesterday

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