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4-1 +3.23% Yesterday

Here is how the top four most heavily bet on games in the NFL went yesterday:
Miami +7 (Covered)
Detroit +6 (No Cover)
Washington +9 (Covered)
Ny Giants +4 (Covered)
Notice a pattern? Hugely bet on games. Public fade side goes 3-1 ATS.
It only takes one square game winning to make you believe that the tectonic plates of wagering have shifted. It will always work the same way: the squares will lose and the sharps will win. The books will always beat you unless you think like them and side on their bets.
Monday Nght Football
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Baltimore 34 8:30 PM ET Baltimore +3 1.00
New Orleans 27    WINNER!
Nothing qualifies for today. As I said, there’ll be 20-30 selections for the season. I don’t know when they’ll come but they will. If you need action, refer to the raw numbers for now. That goes for all of the sports I cover.
Both of my raw number leans won go figure (Hamilton (W) and OVER (W) in Calg.)…
 
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 4 7:30 PM ET Minnesota -130 1.00
Florida 1    WINNER!

Raw numbers now 72-34 +26.51 Units after yesterday’s win and official selection on Anaheim -200 winning by a single goal. I suggest taking the moneyline on this one as well. Public is all over the spread and we’re projecting a tight but very confident win if that makes sense and you watch hockey….a multi goal projected win vs. a single goal win doesn’t necessarily correlate to confidence. Just has to do more with how the individual teams play (eg. do they pull their goalie when down, how soon do they do it, do defenders push when down, etc.).

NBA DAILY RAW NUMBERS

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Orlando 74 7:00 PM ET Orlando +9 0.50
Cleveland 106    Lost
Portland 114 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +13 0.75
Philadelphia 104    WINNER!
Phoenix 100 7:30 PM ET Phoenix +5 1.00
Toronto 104    WINNER!

3 plays qualify although one recommendation I might make today is to just take Phoenix or take the other two smaller and TO RISK.

We have to take the Sixers with noses pinched: Since 1989, Huge Home Dogs over 10 points off of a loss are 121-72-2 ATS (62.7%) ATS
The Sixers are 4-2 ATS so far this season in this spot.
 
Folks, as much as we all don’t like the 76ers, you can’t deny this system and the raw numbers. This is about as powerful as they get of all of the systems I give out. At a very minimum, keep it in your back pocket and don’t ever go against it. Today, with a small raw number edge supporting the play we’ll bet the sixers….gun to my head. But remember this too: some of the best bets are the ones that are gut twisters. You know they’re the right thing to do, but make you feel physically ill. Under 10% of the public bets support Philly on the spread and moneyline. Vegas stands to make a killing tonight if the Sixers can show up and make the smallest effort to cover this enormous spread. Remember this too though, in case the bet loses and for those that have a tendency to believe that betting square is the wave of the future: if the Sixers lose this one Vegas will always make more per loss than you do per win.
Good luck today.

 

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2-0-1 +2.00% Yesterday

Thursday, November 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Kansas State 26 7:00 PM ET Kansas State +2.5 1.00
West Virginia 20    WINNER!

Most of the public has been on W. Virginia so far pushing this line from PK -110 ; 2 and a half points to +2.5. It might go to +3 which would be really huge to get.

Bet is on Thursday by the way. I put up raw numbers for NCAAF for Today til Friday and as usual, I will have the rest for Saturday out on Thursday afternoon along with NFL.
Check this out:
In his career with Kansas St. (so since 1989 and not including some years), Bill Snyder turns into the Hulk ATS after being blown out in a conference game:

After a double digit blowout he’s 33-10-0 (8.56, 76.7%) ATS
After a 13 or more points blowout he’s 22-4-0 (12.35, 84.6%) ATS
After a 25 or more points blowout he’s 14-1-0 (15.67, 93.3%)
After a 30 or more points blowout he’s 9-0-0 (21.50, 100.0%)

West Virginia is going to be tough though. This would be good in a 6 point teaser fyi.

Nothing for today although raw numbers continue to do well going 5-1 ATS on the top 6 (4-0 on the top four).

Thursday, November 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 3 7:00 PM ET Minnesota -120 1.00
Philadelphia 2    WINNER!
Chicago 4 9:00 PM ET Chicago -1 +120 1.00
Calgary 3    Pushed

Raw numbers are hot: 65-29 +24.96 Units this season. Both of these are basic qualifiers that pass a few extra checks I’ve been liking that have brought us to 20-8-2 +10.68 Unitson official selections.

Nothing for today. Nice 3-0 yesterday. Lean for today is on Sacramento, but they’ve got no raw number edge.
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3-0 ATS Yesterday

NCAABB DAILY RAW NUMBERS
Nothing for today. We’re probably going to have around 30-40 selections total for the season, and they’ll come at 1 per 3-4 days on average. Can’t predict when. Some days might have two. Just a heads up: that’s how this CBB season is going to go. If you want more action, as always, check out the raw numbers; they’re already off to a nice start here.
Nothing for today.
NBA DAILY RAW NUMBERS
Wednesday, November 19
Game Score Status Pick Amount
San Antonio 92 7:00 PM ET San Antonio +2 0.50
Cleveland 90    WINNER!
Dallas 105 7:00 PM ET Dallas -2.5 0.50
Washington 102    WINNER!
New York 99 8:00 PM ET Minnesota -1.5 0.50
Minnesota 115    WINNER!
I like Minnesota here, but for a half unit as the raw numbers are stronger on other things. I think you’d make some profit if you also considered: San Antonio, Phoenix and/or Toronto, but I’m passing on those.
Minnesota is backed by under 30% of the public bets as small home favorites. We have a 3-9 teams (NY) vs. a 2-7 team and for whatever reason the public likes the 3-9 team.
Minnesota went on a horrific streak SU and ATS (0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS), but they’ve had 4 days to stew on it. A huge break. Meanwhile, expect New York to come out flat here on a back to back road loss by just 4 points and over 225 points scored.
Add to that, Minnesota started the season 4-0 ATS so we know they have it in them to get back to that. They’ve also have a much much more difficult schedule so far than New York. This is their game to get back in it.

Go ahead and take San Antonio and Dallas as well. They were on the edge before. Now I’m seeing sharp money on them so let’s go ahead and take them.

NBA Raw numbers are 24-14 +9.3%
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7-2 On Top NFL Plays

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) | Wk 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-1 (87.5%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK 11 RAW NUMBERS

Sunday, November 16

Game Result Status Pick Amount
New England Lost 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -3 2.00
Indianapolis -

“…this is a spot I’ve been waiting for. Here are a couple things I’ve said in past emails:

1. I had said, Next time I see the fraud Patriots play a legit team in a tough spot I’m fading them.
2. I also said, Andrew Luck is going to be an elite NFL quarterback if he isn’t already. I have faith and like my money behind him.
I’ll put my money where my mouth is now. The key thing is that I’ve been anticipating the Patriots getting exposed as something much less than the public perceives them to be right now….which is ‘extremely elite’. Maybe I’ve just been bitter since week six where the refs along with Orton gifted the Patriots an easy win over our top play on the Bills +3. The Colts are poised to expose the Patriots and really define who is who.
***The Colts are better than the Patriots. First off here is one factual system that I talk about all of the time:
1. Since 1989, home teams (< +1.5 line) with better 3rd down percentages on OFFENSE AND DEFENSE are an incredible 536-203-2 (+7.62 ppg, 72.5%) SU.
I really don’t think anyone has any clue that the Colts are this much better in this crucial area. Furthermore, I don’t think the “semi pro suckers” even realize how important 3rd down performance really is…
2. The Colts have had nearly a 30% more difficult strength of schedule than the Patriots. One of the Colt’s losses was in Denver. *The Broncos are 18-1 (+17.53, 94.7%) SU since Sept. 30th, 2012 at home. Colts also lost to the Steelers who just surged out of no where. No one saw that coming, but I loved how the Colts came right back and their defense AND offense both bucked up proving that the Steeler loss was a fluke. The Patriots on the other hand lost to a team very similar to the Colts: the Kansas City Chiefs 14-41 early on and had very little class about that. Brady discussed leaving the Patriots. There was discord. The Colts aren’t like that from what I’ve seen. So now after wins against the overrated Bengals, the piss poor Jets, one of the worst Bears teams of all time the Patriots are riding high on a haggle horse. They won’t see the Colts coming here especially after knocking off the top tier Broncos at home….which is one of those things I always mention that makes no bet perfect. That was legit I’ll admit. The Patriots were a bet there for us as home dogs, but scroll back up and read what I have to about top tier MLB starters and QB’s doing so much better at home than they do on the road. The Patriots have an unreal home field advantage which makes thing less impressive on paper.
3. We’ve dissected this game every which way. Guys that come out of Stanford are smart. As I mentioned before, I like Luck a lot. He is smart and if we consider a worst case scenario in this game: the defenses both crap out, Andrew Luck has got the better and smarter offense going right now. A lot of it is the little things, but we’ve got the angles covered. Add to that, if Luck needs a breather, the Patriots are one of the worst defenses in the league against the rush.
This would all make for a strong bet, but there are some other big things going for the Colts to finalize this email which make this one a TOP PLAY:
BYE WEEK SYSTEM: Since 2002, 2 to 12 point regular season home favorites of of a BYE WEEK are 93-30 +8.36 ppg, 75.6% and 75-46-2 (62.0%) ATS prior to week 13.
Chargers, Colts, Redskins this week. Consider all of them if you want to add anything…
RIDIN’ HIGH FADE SYSTEM: Since 1992, plus .500 road teams off of upset wins as home underdogs suck it next game 46-99 SU and 53-86-6 (38.1%) ATS. FADE Patriots.
As always, nothing is a lock and I could be way off on this and the Patriots really are legit, but I’ve been digging way into things here, and I am convinced the the Patriots get a sobering run for their money here. Belichick is a great coach. I actually don’t doubt that he is looking at the same things I’m looking at and probably a whole lot more, but it is hard to convey these perspectives to the whole team when they’re feeling like their one step away from the Super Bowl. I also know that Belichick is the kind of coach that like to see his players get a sobering ass wooping so that the get their heads out of the clouds. I can see that happening as well here. This isn’t a must win game for the Patriots depending on how you look at it, but for the Colts, this one is rather important…”
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3-0-1 100% Day

Tuesday, November 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Colorado 0 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders -1 +136 1.00
NY Islanders 6    WINNER!  to risk
Buffalo 1 8:00 PM ET St. Louis -1.5 -125 1.00
St. Louis 6    WINNER!  to risk
Tampa Bay 2 8:30 PM ET Chicago -1 +116 1.00
Chicago 3    Pushed  to win
Basically make NYI the largest of the three / make STL and CHI a bit smaller than the usual 1 unit wager. The above is how I’m doing it, but as always consider your own money management strategy.
*Raw NHL Numbers are hitting over 65% and up around 15% gain.
Tuesday, November 11
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Charlotte 100 10:00 PM ET Charlotte +7 0.50
Portland 102    WINNER!

Let’s do another half unit play here. NBA is slow starting. Numbers are in the black though, but the top plays need to start showing some strength. This one would normally qualify as a 1 unit play. Buy Charlotte at a low. Sell Portland at a high. Let’s get it!

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4-1 Weekend in NFL…

NFL Top Play Links: Week 1 (W) | Week 2 (W) | Week 3 (W) | Week 4 (W) | Week 5 (W) | Week 6 (L) | Week 7 (W+W)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-1 (87.5%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK TEN RAW NUMBERS

Sunday, November 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount
San Francisco 27 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -5 1.00
New Orleans 24   Lost
Denver 41 4:05 PM ET Denver -11 0.25
Oakland 17   WINNER!
Chicago 14 8:30 PM ET Green Bay -7.5 0.25
Green Bay 55    WINNER!

6pt Teaser: (1 unit) WINNER!
#265 Denver Broncos -5
#272 Green Bay Packers -1.5

Thoughts: Last week we didn’t like anything for a big amount, but went 2-1 on sides and lost the adjusted teaser; however, if you got on the first teaser (when Arizona was at +4 before the Romo news) you went 3-1 which I know many of you did. We’re not recording that though. The Chargers were way off, but like I said on that one, other than the raw numbers, I don’t see a lot of angles and don’t like the game a ton. San Diego had to travel across a big time zone. That is something we usually don’t want to back heavily. As for the Patriots: They killed is as home dogs for the second time this season. The public caught onto the trend on that one, and were mostly (with us) on the New England Patriots who ended up smoking Peyton Manning and the Broncos. I’m not really sure how the books did on this one (profit or loss). Then on Monday, the Colts smoked the Giants as predicted for our second winner of last week. I’ve been convinced for a while that Andrew Luck will become an elite QB in the NFL if he isn’t already widely considered one. He’s smart, aggressive, quick decisive, studious. Can’t say enough good things about him. If we ever bet the Colts again, my confidence will be high if he is at the helm. Colts are 6-3 in the AFC South. There is a 95.2% chance already that they make the playoffs.

Monday, November 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Carolina 21 8:30 PM ET Philadelphia -6 1.00
Philadelphia 45     WINNER!
Another week of small / regular bets and NO TOP PLAY. A bunch of favorites and big lumber on one of these which you know I hate…I am going to keep the write up shorter this week as we have 4 favorites all sure to move against us as I speak. So place the bets as soon as you get this. No waiting until game time. If you can’t get these lines or something reasonably close, just pass (as always).
 
In Oakland:
This is a square play I know it, but the raw numbers are incredibly strong here (+8.7 raw number edge on the spread). Take the side small or pass and tease Denver for 6 points.
First of all, I want to say why I don’t think you should go heavy on what would appear to be the best play as far as raw number edge goes (we’re 

SYSTEM: Since 1989, teams with ZERO wins are 48-17-3 (73.4%) ATS (24-44 SU) after week 8.

Again, this system is a powerful one and goes for Oakland which is why I like a pass on the side or very small and Denver in a teaser instead.
We’re projecting about a 40-20 final blowout score; Broncos winning of course. Expect Oakland to be rabid again for their first win though trying desperately to at least keep this one close. Oakland will get a win at some point, and normally I would just pass here, but I like the situation for Peyton Manning and the Broncos almost more than I would like that system for Oakland. Peyton Manning is coming off of another defeat in New England: Last time Manning and the Broncos lost in New England (as road favorites by the way) they came back and SMACKED the Tennessee Titans 51-28 in their next game at home as -13.5 point favorites. I expect about the same thing to happen.
In Green Bay:
Raw numbers are strong here as well predicting a final 35-23 outcome for the Packers. We’ve seen Green Bay own better Bear’s teams than this so many times now.
Gotta be the dumbest injury I’ve ever seen. Lamarr Houston hurts himself after celebrating a sack and he’ll be gone for the Bears.
This is a division game though, I see the best value in taking Green Bay in a 6 or 6.5 point teaser.
In New Orleans:
Philly and New Orleans both qualify by this system, and might make for a pretty good teaser of their own….so consider that.
SYSTEM: Since 1989, home teams <+1.5 with better third down percentages on BOTH offense and defense are 534-201-2(+7.64 ppg, 72.7%) SU.
That is massive. If you’re in a survivor pool consider the Bengals, Cardinals, Saints or Eagles this week. These might go 4-0….we’ll see.
I like this play. The public has been so incredibly wrong about the 49ers this year and last year as well. After losing the superbowl they’ve just been flacid. We’re projecting a big 30-18 point win for the home favorite here…
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
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NHL Raw Numbers Now at 40-17 +14.17%

Capture

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7-1 Now on NFL Top Plays

NFL Top Play Links: Week 1 (W) | Week 2 (W) | Week 3 (W) | Week 4 (W) | Week 5 (W) | Week 6 (L) | Week 7 (W+W)

Top NFL Play Total – 7-1 (87.5%) ATS
 
NFL 2014 WEEK EIGHT RAW NUMBERS

Sunday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 19 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +3* 2.00
Tampa Bay 13    (Top Play) WINNER!
Green Bay - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -1.5 2.00
New Orleans -    (Top Play) WINNER!

Very rarely does it happen, but we have two top plays this week. I guess we’re making up for not having one from last week…

In Tampa Bay (Top Play):
We’ve got the Buccs ranked 30th in the league. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t a ton better, but the difference is the schedule they’ve had.
Here’s who the Vikings have played: New England must win for NE), New Orleans (must win for NOR), Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo (who are better than people think).
Here’s who the Buccs have played: Carolina, St. Louis, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans….mostly garbage teams and they’re only 1-5. At least Minnesota got 2 wins.
Since 2003, teams get undervalued if they play two consecutive road games in the second one (or more): going 471-359-20 (56.7%) ATS. That is a huge thing to pinwheel selections off of or use as a filter. I definately recommend keeping this one in your back pocket. Teams to consider or not bet against this weekend under this system include: Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Texans. All with modest lines…
Also, the Vikings are off of what many people think is a disheveling loss. How can you pick yourself up after a 1 point loss? Well, it turns out that since 1990, road dogs off of a 1 point loss on the road are 15-15 SU and 20-10-0 (66.7%) ATS.
*The Tampa Bay Bucc’s are just 14-29 (-5.56 ppg, 32.6%) SU and 13-29-1 (31%) ATS since 2009 at home.
*The Vikings are 12-0 ATS as a dog the week after a road game in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and committed fewer than five turnovers.
SYSTEM 2: Since 1989, +4 to -4 pt. Home teams that just allowed over 28 points last game are just 31-57-4 (35.2%) ATS in the following week against teams off close losses (1,2 or 3 points).
I love this play. Lots of things add up and it is our second biggest raw number selection. Really, this week, we’re just grinding out the big edges as we always should and filtering down the big marquee Thursday game. The rest is borderline fluff! One thing that scares me about this bet is that the Buccs are home favorites off of a bye week. That is a system in itself….as I’ve said before though, no bet is perfect. Up next….
In New Orleans (Top Play):
Saints in the dome again now with a single point. Man this is an auto bet, but there are so many more reasons to love the Saints here….namely, they are the TOP Raw Number Pick of the week.
This is really similar to the Patriots top play we had a few weeks back: The Patriots were desperate, backed into a corner and forced to show up for the home crowd. All kinds of bad things happen when teams lose games like this one. Drew Brees is an incredibly smart player and he is going to rally his team around the idea that, if we don’t win this one, this season is going to get a whole lot harder than it has already been.
Only 20% of the bets or fewer are on the Saints here which I find shocking. The Saints have made mistakes this season, but it hasn’t been the kind of stuff that makes them a truly bad team.
*Common Power rankings (such as Sagarin) still have the Saints in the Top 15 teams of the league…and they’re 2-4! They’ve even had what would seem to be a fairly easy strength of schedule. I know 6 games feels like a lot, but I say, the Saints are just being slow starters and get back to .500 soon.
*Green Bay looks unstoppable right now, but I think, like the Broncos, they’re riding high and may not take this game seriously enough. The Dome is an incredibly hard place to play….although if you just relax, that tends to help things. Green Bay lost to two good teams : Seattle and Detroit and then went on to beat a whole bunch of lower tier teams. This will be their most difficult game in a while.
**The Saints are 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as an underdog.
**They’re 25-4-0 SU and 23-5-1 (82.1%) ATS since October 31st, 2010 as home favorites.

 

*The Packers are 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week.

Like I said, riding high….
*The Saints are 2-4 but they’ve only had 2 home games so far this season….they’ve won both of them.
*Sean Payton and Drew Brees are 16-4-0 SU +13.8 ppg, and 16-4-0 ATS (80%) with the Saints after a 1 to 6 point close loss.
Good luck on these. You can pass on the Chargers and just take the Vikings and/or Saints if you’d like…..or if you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: http://www.procomputergambler.com/nfl/
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 3
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Oct. 27th NHL Selection

Let’s go ahead with Vancouver. Like I said, The raw numbers have been wildly successful so far sitting now at 26-9 (74.2%) +11.55 Unitsso far this season.

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Washington 2 9:30 PM ET Vancouver -1 +133 1.00
Vancouver 4    Winner!
Good luck on this one. Awesome win on top play 1 of 2 in NFL. Go Saints for tonight!
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6-1 Now On NFL Top Plays

NFL Top Play Links: Week 1 (W) | Week 2 (W) | Week 3 (W) | Week 4 (W) | Week 5 (W) | Week 6 (L)
 
NFL 2014 WEEK EIGHT RAW NUMBERS

Sunday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 19 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +3* 2.00
Tampa Bay 13    (Top Play) WINNER!
Green Bay - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -1.5 2.00
New Orleans -    (Top Play) Pending…

Very rarely does it happen, but we have two top plays this week. I guess we’re making up for not having one from last week…

In Tampa Bay (Top Play):
We’ve got the Buccs ranked 30th in the league. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t a ton better, but the difference is the schedule they’ve had.
Here’s who the Vikings have played: New England must win for NE), New Orleans (must win for NOR), Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo (who are better than people think).
Here’s who the Buccs have played: Carolina, St. Louis, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans….mostly garbage teams and they’re only 1-5. At least Minnesota got 2 wins.
Since 2003, teams get undervalued if they play two consecutive road games in the second one (or more): going 471-359-20 (56.7%) ATS. That is a huge thing to pinwheel selections off of or use as a filter. I definately recommend keeping this one in your back pocket. Teams to consider or not bet against this weekend under this system include: Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Texans. All with modest lines…
Also, the Vikings are off of what many people think is a disheveling loss. How can you pick yourself up after a 1 point loss? Well, it turns out that since 1990, road dogs off of a 1 point loss on the road are 15-15 SU and 20-10-0 (66.7%) ATS.
*The Tampa Bay Bucc’s are just 14-29 (-5.56 ppg, 32.6%) SU and 13-29-1 (31%) ATS since 2009 at home.
*The Vikings are 12-0 ATS as a dog the week after a road game in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and committed fewer than five turnovers.
SYSTEM 2: Since 1989, +4 to -4 pt. Home teams that just allowed over 28 points last game are just 31-57-4 (35.2%) ATS in the following week against teams off close losses (1,2 or 3 points).
I love this play. Lots of things add up and it is our second biggest raw number selection. Really, this week, we’re just grinding out the big edges as we always should and filtering down the big marquee Thursday game. The rest is borderline fluff! One thing that scares me about this bet is that the Buccs are home favorites off of a bye week. That is a system in itself….as I’ve said before though, no bet is perfect. Up next….
In New Orleans (Top Play):
Saints in the dome again now with a single point. Man this is an auto bet, but there are so many more reasons to love the Saints here….namely, they are the TOP Raw Number Pick of the week.
This is really similar to the Patriots top play we had a few weeks back: The Patriots were desperate, backed into a corner and forced to show up for the home crowd. All kinds of bad things happen when teams lose games like this one. Drew Brees is an incredibly smart player and he is going to rally his team around the idea that, if we don’t win this one, this season is going to get a whole lot harder than it has already been.
Only 20% of the bets or fewer are on the Saints here which I find shocking. The Saints have made mistakes this season, but it hasn’t been the kind of stuff that makes them a truly bad team.
*Common Power rankings (such as Sagarin) still have the Saints in the Top 15 teams of the league…and they’re 2-4! They’ve even had what would seem to be a fairly easy strength of schedule. I know 6 games feels like a lot, but I say, the Saints are just being slow starters and get back to .500 soon.
*Green Bay looks unstoppable right now, but I think, like the Broncos, they’re riding high and may not take this game seriously enough. The Dome is an incredibly hard place to play….although if you just relax, that tends to help things. Green Bay lost to two good teams : Seattle and Detroit and then went on to beat a whole bunch of lower tier teams. This will be their most difficult game in a while.
**The Saints are 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as an underdog.
**They’re 25-4-0 SU and 23-5-1 (82.1%) ATS since October 31st, 2010 as home favorites.

*The Packers are 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week.

Like I said, riding high….
*The Saints are 2-4 but they’ve only had 2 home games so far this season….they’ve won both of them.
*Sean Payton and Drew Brees are 16-4-0 SU +13.8 ppg, and 16-4-0 ATS (80%) with the Saints after a 1 to 6 point close loss.
Good luck on these three. You can pass on the Chargers and just take the Vikings and/or Saints if you’d like…..or if you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: http://www.procomputergambler.com/nfl/ 
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
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