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Perfect MLB Sweep

Game Result Status Pick Amount
LA Angels WINNER! 7:08 PM ET LA Angels +102 1.00
Detroit -
Atlanta WINNER! 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -104 2.00
NY Mets -    (TOP PLAY)
Seattle WINNER! 7:10 PM ET Over 7.5 1.25
Miami -
In NY:
Big classic let down spot for the Mets here:
***The New York Mets are 6-24 (20%, -23.84 units, +62.3% roi to fade) SU under Terry Collins at home off of six or more straight road games.
*That’s 1-14 as favorites which they may or may not be here. +119.5% roi to fade.
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NHL Playoff Top Play Write-Up

Raw numbers for the next two days uploaded; however, I am passing on the top lean.
We come close to taking LA and San Jose Under, but I would personally like to pass as around 95% of the public bets want the under as well and it is lined 4.5
*The OVER is 17-8 in playoff games where the total is 4.5
I do however see value on one side of this matchup on the -1 puckline: San Jose.

Thursday, April 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Los Angeles 3 10:30 PM ET San Jose -1 +148 2.00
San Jose 6    (Top Play)

RESULT: WINNER!

Over 90% of the puckline bets are taking LA +1.5 here. People tend to believe that a lower scoring game correlates very well with a dog covering when history shows little to no value in this theory. I haven’t looked into this game deeply and I won’t because the raw numbers have the edge and we’re fading the public’s unresearched angle.
*The Sharks are 30-14 +13.8 units, +22.6% roi SU this season vs. plus .500 teams.
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Top Play Winner Oakland Write-Up

Game Score Status Pick Amount
 Oakland 10 7:05 PM ET Oakland +100 2.00
 LA Angels 9    (TOP PLAY)

RESULT: WINNER!

*System: Since 2004, underdogs in April facing a plus .400 teams off of a game where they didn’t win by more than 2 (or lost) and didn’t get shut out are 962-1078 (+168.27 units) SU.
(Oakland, Dodgers, Marlins, Rockies, Indians, Twins, Cubs)

I’ve filtered that system down a bit to a 537-447 (+230.86 units) SU variation which is yielding the (Oakland, Dodgers, Marlins, Rockies, IndiansTwins and Cubs).

From there, I am filtering out the Rockies automatically because of raw numbers edges going against them.
*Also filtering out a play on the Dodgers as Tim Lincecum is 21-11 (65.6%) SU in the first months of the game career.
 
In LA: (Top Play):
**The Athletics are 119-87 (57.8%, +32.42 units) SU under Bob Melvin when the bullpen is hot (averaging <1 BPRA L5).
**They’re also 80-55 (+32.11 units, +21% roi) SU under Melvin after four plus games on the road.
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Yesterday’s Results

6-5 +5.87% Yesterday – +1267.81% eP (effective profit) since April 2010. That’s roughly +$31.7k per year betting just $100 per game.

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4-0 MLB Dog Sweep +5.19%!

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Baltimore 3 1:08 PM ET Baltimore +146 1.00
Detroit 1    WINNER!
St. Louis 1 1:35 PM ET Pittsburgh +146 1.00
Pittsburgh 2    WINNER!
Chi. White Sox 5 2:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +118 1.00
Kansas City 1    WINNER!
Arizona 5 4:10 PM ET Arizona +109 1.00
Colorado 3    WINNER!
*System: Since 2004, underdogs in April facing a plus .400 teams off of a game where they didn’t win by more than 2 (or lost) and didn’t get shut out are 936-1037 (+176.72 units) SU.
(Astros, Mariners, Pirates, Brewers D-Backs, White Sox, Orioles)

I’ve filtered that system down a bit to a 732-711 (+218.6 units) SU variation which is yielding just the (Mariners, Pirates, D-Backs, White Sox, Orioles).

From there, I am taking all but the Mariners as the raw numbers have a fairly sizable edge against them.
*In Detroit: Chris Tillman is 8-0 (+142.6% roi) SU as a road dog with the line greater than +125. I would make this one bigger but don’t like going against Justin Verlander as a home favorite.
Good luck!
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Recent Awards

 

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Big Winner Off Big Trend – Read!

Game Result Status Pick Amount
New Jersey WINNER! 1:00 PM ET Over 5 1.20
NY Islanders -

Stronger play: At least statistically speaking, as this contains few parameters and has a 5.19 Z score. Is it logical though? I’m not sure. Can’t say I watch hockey enough or watch NYI and Jack Capuano enough to know how their team psychology works.

*The New York Islanders are 40-13-1 (75.5%) OVER the total since 2010 under head coach Jack Capuano after a close one goal win.

If you think it is LOGICAL that the Islanders would run up the score in the next game after a close (possibly lucky) win in their next game then maybe this play is worth a little cheddar. I look forward to some thoughts from you guys. Does it make sense or is it just the product of pure chance?

Thanks!

PS, Btw, the average score in these games was NYI 3.1 to Opponent 3.3 so they tend to put up good offense, but forget about defense it seems…

PPS, Either way, the raw numbers are backing this one so its worth at least one basic unit.
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+581.44 units Since April 2010 – 3-1 Yesterday

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Toronto WINNER! 7:00 PM ET Over 5.5 1.00
NY Islanders -
Los Angeles WINNER! 9:30 PM ET Under 5 1.10
Calgary -
**Under head coach Darryl Sutter, the LA Kings are 49-16-16 (75.4%) UNDER the total vs. sub .500 teams.
 
 
Game Result Status Pick Amount
UC Santa Barbara WINNER! 10:00 PM ET UC Irvine -3.5 1.00
UC Irvine -
Hawaii Lost 10:30 PM ET Long Beach St. -4 1.00
Long Beach St. -
Two regular raw number plays. Long Beach appears to be a little bit better as they have had roughly a 7% more difficult SOS than Hawaii. Going to play them for the same amount though. It isn’t that big of a difference.
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Yesterday’s Results: 2-0

Game Result Status Pick Amount
New Orleans WINNER! 8:00 PM ET Dallas -7 1.00
Dallas -
Less that 20% of the public bets want a piece of Dallas today even with two key injuries plus some others to the Pelicans (Holiday and Anderson).
Redwings look decent but passing here.
Game Result Status Pick Amount
Rutgers WINNER! 7:00 PM ET Rutgers +4.5 1.00
Central Florida -
*Under head coach Donnie Jones, UCF is just 4-14 ATS after two or more straight losses. Good raw number support on this one.
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Big Winner Tonight in NBA

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Atlanta Winner! 7:00 PM ET Toronto -6.5 1.20
Toronto -

Even with a better win percentage, a less severe injury roster, a better power ranking, a MUCH more difficult strength of schedule, Toronto is only backed by Under 20% of the public bets!

Can you blame the public that much for the sentiment? After all three games above .500 after a whopping SIX straight sub .500 seasons for the club (1 out of 10 previous seasons with a winning %) doesn’t look like a strong foundation for your money.
On the other hand, Toronto is a very solid 15-5 SU and 12-6 ATS this season as over 2 pt. favorites this season, when the public is doubting them. I like putting my money down on teams showing signs of breaking long time club streaks (for example the Pirates last season in MLB or the A’s we made a lot of money with).
For the record, I’m not saying the Raptors are the NBA’s Pirates or A’s….
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