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3-0 Now on Top NFL Plays of the Week

NFL 2014 WEEK THREE RAW NUMBERS

Sunday, September 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Baltimore 23 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +2 1.00
Cleveland 21    PUSHED
Indianapolis 44 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -6.5 1.00
Jacksonville 17  (Top of Week)     WINNER!

Monday, September 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Chicago +3 1.00
N.Y. Jets -    Pending
6 Pt. Teaser (1 unit) – Official Selection
#456 Philadelphia Eagles PK WINNER!
#467 Indianapolis Colts PK WINNER!

Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

We have two regular bets this week, a Runner Up and A LOT of things that came close and we’re passing on or just betting a lot smaller this week. Cleveland has a lot of the marks of a TOP PLAY for us, but the raw numbers edge isn’t that significant so it is just a runner up / regular play….but I think a decent one. Chicago is a technical play. A lot of the square public is on the Bears with us so we’re just going to keep the marquee game small. Same with Indy who we feel is a True Favorite Runner Up this week.

Thoughts: Things have been funny in Vegas lately. Dogs have lost the books a killing in MLB while they’ve raked money for the books in the first two weeks of NFL. I had a discussion with some sharp gamblers I know after week two on Monday and we have a theory here for week 3: in week one dogs went 11-5-0 ATS and in week 2 dogs went 9-7 ATS for a combined 20-12 (62.5%) ATS! That should have been 21-11 too if the Jags could have covered in week 1 without the backdoor fumble.

What does this mean? Well, Vegas has already damn near bankrupted a lot of square gamblers in just two weeks. Our theory was that this week will feature less traps and there will be more fair lines on true favorites at a minimum as the public needs some sort of gimme. Put yourself in the mind of Vegas: this is going to be the last shot for a lot of gamblers before they throw in the towel completely. The art of booking the NFL season is keeping the bets coming all the way til the end. Our call for this week is…..drum roll….what happens is by and large what the public is going to be expecting.
Here are some thoughts:
System: Since 1992, Sub .500 from last season underdogs with under 2 wins are 136-73-9 (65.1%) ATS playing at a new site.
Active on Runner Up : Cleveland Browns
I’ve always liked betting the Browns (and other teams like the Bills, Jags, Cardinals, Rams, etc.). The public writes these teams off so easily and what we’re usually seeing is hard effort from them….lots of bad beats that end up close. On the other hand, teams are lousy as dogs off of a win as a home dog….the Browns would normally be getting a lot more points here, but they just knocked off the Saints…..still the public is only backing them under 30% of the bets this week which I find shocking….c’mon people; the Browns just beat the Saints. They’re really home dogs here?
In Jacksonville (Runner Up Bet):
Since Week 13 of 2011, the Colts are 13-1 ATS off of a loss. 10-1 ATS and 10-1 SU since 2012. There is no way Andrew Luck and the Colts go to 0-3. This line should be much much higher, but as we theorized before, Vegas wants to throw the public a bone this week (POSSIBLY). The Colts had so many lame penalties called on them last week; they’ll get up for this game and prove that they are worth at least something. Gus Bradley inspires nothing in Jacksonville. I’m glad we went small on them last week. Probably should have just passed. I can’t go too big on Indy though because you always must fear the bottom feeders…
Since 1989, road favorites between -5 and -8 points without wins are 17-9 ATS and 23-3 (88.5%) with a small 6 point teaser.
We’re going to put the Colts in with our top raw number edge: The Philadelphia Eagles.
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Another NFL Top Play Wins!

Sunday, September 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount
St. Louis 19 4:05 PM ET St. Louis +6 (Top Play) 1.50
Tampa Bay 17    WINNER!
Thoughts: Last week we went 2-0 on Official selections (Miami +5 and Oakland +5.5). What I also loved was that the leans I gave out went 4-1 with the Saints being the only loss due to an unlucky fumble in OT vs. Atlanta. If you took them all, you went 6-1 in Week 1.

Still 2-0 in Week 1 is great. Most of the public got hosed as this was a historically excellent week for Vegas. “If the Jaguars would have been able to salt it [the cover] away, it could have been our best day ever,” said Jay Rood, MGM vice president of race and sports. “Giving a little back isn’t a bad thing right now. We don’t want to stick everyone in a corner too much early in the season. Overall, it was a pretty damn good day.”

The biggest game for the books was the Saints vs. Atlanta with the public heavily piled on the Saints who blew it in OT. The Broncos blew a 24-0 lead and the books cleaned up there with the Colts taking the cover. The Browns came back huge against the 7 point favorite Steelers who were leading double digit throughout a major portion of the game; and then of course our Miami Dolphins who were perhaps the upset of the week putting the Patriots in a hole week one. Who saw that one coming? Well….we did and so did the books.

This Week: The public seems to have bucked up a little and is playing things a bit sharper…for example, most of the public is on Jacksonville this week. We’ve got great numbers there, but something stinks about being on what really should be a contrary selection but is not. Our best selection this week appears to be St. Louis for which we have a number of reasons…

Top Play (ST LOUIS RAMS):
This is highly reminiscent of the TJ Yates / Shaub situation a few seasons about in Houston. Reminds us a little of the legend Charlie Batch, taking up the helm of the Steelers team shorthanded Ben Roethlisberger. Teams play 110% by nature in professional sports when all of the public is doubting them and people throw in the towel too early. Less than 25% of the bets are on the Rams this week after losing Sam Bradford. That line is pile driving its way to +7 as we speak.

Usually if we’re touting a Top Play, there is some overreaction involved: the big one in this is that the Rams lost a blowout 34-6 at home vs. the Vikings. Well, a couple of thoughts on that: A. The Vikings are a good team. Don’t forget that they are one of our Top NFL RSW Over futures. B. The Rams lost their QB in the first half vs. this good team. Meanwhile, the Buccs are not at all worth 6 points. They faced a team with a backup QB in week 1 at home and lost, nearly getting shut out. Why are they getting all of these points now? Probably because the score board made it look close.
SYSTEM: Non-Divisional teams that failed to cover the spread by 26 points or more are deemed garbage and too scary of a bet to take next week. They’re 99-60-8 (62.3%) ATS though and 7-4 in Week 2.
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Miami Dolphins – TOP PLAY – Smear Patriots

NFL 2014 WEEK ONE RAW NUMBERS

Posted here:  http://www.procomputergambler.com/ncaafb/

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Oakland 14 1:00 PM ET Oakland +5.5 WINNER! 1.50
N.Y. Jets 19
New England 20 1:00 PM ET Miami +5 WINNER! 2.00
Miami 33    (Top Play)

Games that came close in order of strength (Seattle, Detroit, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Minnesota).

Of all of those, I would consider Seattle the most as it just fit a slew of technical parameters. Too much of a marquee game though and we have lots of reasons to like Green Bay this season. Definitely worth a unit though if you’re in the mood for a bet tonight.
Those are probably each good for 1 unit, but that is a shakey one unit. Week 1 is never easy and people often tend to go hog wild taking too many plays so we’re going to stick with our two best: Miami and Oakland.
In Miami (TOP PLAY):
Again….”In Miami”…why is it week one and Dolphins are +5 point home underdogs.
The weather is forcasted to spike up to the 90’s with high humidity for this game. The Patriots have struggled in this kind of situation and usually if they did pull the win, they didn’t cover the points.
Over 80% of the public bets are on the spread in this on for New England on the road in week one. No real indication of smart money yet on the Dolphins, but I think they’ll be waiting to strike on this one as it may gain a whole extra point at the rate the public is doubting the Dolphins and over valuing New England. Add to that, Miami’s secondary is looking top notch with Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon who amassed 20 sacks last season.
*Since 1998, the Dolphins are 9-6-1 (60%) ATS at home to the Patriots. Not bad. The Patriots always seem to beat Miami, but Miami went 5-2 (71.4%) ATS last season as underdogs showing some signs of life as a team.
In Oakland:
We have this matchup about even. Definitely not five and a half points. People are all down on Oakland for a number of reasons, but aren’t thinking too much about how the Jets might be thinking about more difficult games ahead. This is too many points. We’re calling it to be close or for Oakland to win straight up.
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
Follow up email:
“Guys,

Take a look at Miami.
They’re at +3.5 now (we got them at 5). Clearly, the sharp money is coming down on the Dolphins with us as the public bets are still mostly on the Patriots.
I have another thought to add to this: Since 1996, week one road teams that finished last season with 12 or more wins are just 14-24-1 (36.8%) ATS. Check out how they did on the moneyline….not good! In addition, (credit to Killersports.com for finding this trend which I really love): Since 2005, Tom Brady is 0-12-0 ATS vs. the AFC in a rematch where he had previously completed less than 70%, but racked up OVER 280 yards line -4 or less. Again, thanks to Killersports on that nugget of gold which I’m just seeing now after making this selection.
This play stinks I know it…nobody likes taking the Miami Dolphins against the Patriots, but I’m all over them here in week 1. Considering adding something small like 0.25 units risked on the Dolphins money-line if it comes back to where it was at the open before game time. Usually we don’t want to overreact to additional plus factors after placing a wager. If you got the Dolphins in at a good price just leave it and enjoy the game.
 
Best regards,
Tom”
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3-1 Yesterday in MLB

Daily pick record for 09/02/2014

Sport Game Score Pick Amount Result Units
MLB Pittsburgh 4 Over 7 1.20 WON +100
St. Louis 6
MLB Cincinnati 4 Cincinnati +129 1.20 LOST -1.20
Baltimore 5
MLB Milwaukee 1 Chi. Cubs +104 1.20 WON +1.28
Chi. Cubs 7
MLB Philadelphia 4 Philadelphia +159 1.00 WON +1.59
Atlanta 0

 

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2-0 Yesterday in MLB

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Cincinnati WINNER! 7:15 PM ET St. Louis -115 1.20
St. Louis -
Baltimore WINNER! 8:10 PM ET Under 8.5 1.20
Chi. White Sox -

Two solid raw number selections with under 30% of the bets and sharp money on STL and under 15% of the public bets on the UNDER.

***Since 2011, the Cardinals are 119-59 (+1.12 rpg, 66.9%, +37.30 units, +13.7% roi) SU at home in second halves of seasons.
Huge value on STL here where they’d normally be roughly -151
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6-0 Raw Number Sweep 1-0 on Official Top Play

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Detroit 6 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +106 1.25
Pittsburgh 11  (WINNER!)
A lot of things add up for Pittsburgh here today:

1. Raw number sides are up 155-102 +47.4 units this season

2. So far, over 60% of the public bets are on the small road favorite. This should gain value as the day goes on unless smart money comes down on it.
3. Justin Verlander has suffered as a favorite in the last two seasons. In particular against teams scoring under 2.7 extra base hits a game going just 5-16 (-1.24 rpg, 23.8%, -20.72 units, +87.5% roi to fade) SU. Perhaps the area where he suffers has had to do with his control.
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5-0 Sweep in MLB! +7.024%

5-0 Sweep on the MLB raw number sides. Hot couple of days before that too! Raw number sides are at an awesome 151-96 +50.59 units

*This is exactly what I’m talking about: people just following the raw numbers would have a whopping 50.97 units (plus totals) more than I have for official selections. I am not a perfect gambler and there are so many ways to skin the cat as I always say. Be versatile, stick to your guns, manage your money well and have a firm foundation in how you develop your wagers…know what to pass on. Most of you guys know all of this stuff and probably want me to shut up and send the plays already. Without further ado:
Game Score Status Pick Amount
St. Louis 3 4:05 PM ET Baltimore +103 1.25
Baltimore 10    (WINNER!)
NY Mets 2 7:05 PM ET NY Mets +153 (WINNER!) 1.25
Philadelphia 1 Under 7 (WINNER!) 1.00
Texas 3 7:10 PM ET Houston +152 1.20
Houston 8     (WINNER!)
Minnesota 4 9:05 PM ET Over 7.5 1.00
Oakland 9    (WINNER!)

Every single one of these selections today is a raw number play and a public fade. Here are a few key thoughts:

**Since July this season, the Orioles are running hot, going 23-10 (69.7%, +15.9 units, +43.1% roi) SU.
*They’re also a massive 21-2 (+2 rpg, 77.8%, +17.87 units, +61.5% roi) SU this season vs. teams between .500 and .560.
*Ace Cole Hamels is just 8-16 (33.3%, -14.75 units, +52% roi to fade) SU since 2013 vs. sub .500 teams.
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Big Hit on CFL Top Play…

Friday, August 1

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Toronto WINNER! 7:00 PM ET Toronto +3 (Top Play) 2.00
Montreal - (Top Play)
Line Shopping Reference (by statistical occurrence):
CFL Key Margins of Victory:  3, 2, 1, 6, 5, 7, 10, 4, 8, 18, 9, 11, 13, 17, 21
CFL Key Totals: 57, 51, 43, 47, 38, 44, 65, 50, 40, 56, 53, 41, 46, 52, 61, 45
 
Line shopping tips:
*Try to get +5 if you can on Winnipeg. Otherwise, +4.5 is fine.
*No less than +3 on Toronto.
*Anything under 51 for the Over will qualify.
 
SYSTEM: Since 2007, +1 to +12 underdogs off of a 35 to 20 point blow out loss come back 35-27 SU and 50-12-0 (+8.48, 80.6%) ATS.
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Two Winning MLB Systems

July is over. Favorites made blind profit as I talked about at the start of the month. Hopefully you played it a little better than I did. Something about picking favorites doesn’t work out too well for me. Good news is the the end of regular season rocks for dogs. August is another weird month though…
 
Game Result Status Pick Amount
Cincinnati WINNER! 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati +104 1.20
Miami -
San Francisco WINNER! 7:10 PM ET San Francisco +112 1.50
NY Mets -

SYSTEM (+Raw Numbers) CIN: Since 2004, road favorites or Small road dogs in Augusts off of a win facing a team off of a loss are 315-211 (59.9%, +52.85 units, +7.8% roi) SU with some additional filtering that can be seen via the SDQL link.

SYSTEM (+Raw Numbers) SFO: Since 2004, plus .500 dogs vs. sub .500 dogs off of 6+ losses of their last 8 games are 83-56 (59.7%, +41.17 units, +29.6% roi) SU.
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Easy Winner on Top WNBA Play

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Atlanta 67 4:00 PM ET Washington +3.5 1.20
Washington 77    WINNER!
Really good line value now. The public has been slamming the other side for a while.
*Atlanta is just 3-14 ATS since 2013 on the road vs. sub .500 teams. They may not take Washington seriously today.
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