||1:00 PM ET
||Buffalo +3 (Top Play)
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
In Buffalo (Top Play):
It is amazing how public opinion can shift so darn quickly. Last week people were absolutely crazy. They thought Tom Brady was going to leave New England. Now they get a home win and people are acting like they’re the best team in the world again. Well guess what? They’re not; remember all those problems the Patriots have had this season? They still have them. Last week was highly situational. That was a must win for New England. Before I continue here is a prevailing system that is supporting the raw numbers here:
TOP PLAY SYSTEM: Since 1989, Plus .500 teams off of a win as a home underdog are just 81-137-8 (37.2%) ATS and just 14-34-3 (29.2%) ATS since 2010! 5-16 ATS since 2011 against another plus .500 team. That’s 2-19-1 (9.5%) ATS as small dogs or favorites now (line<2).
Let’s think about that one for a minute. Last week everyone was down on the Patriots. They pull an upset. People might be mistaking a regular home field win for a legit re birthing of the team. This situation is strongest when that last win just put the team above .500 (0-8-1 ATS). Why was the team below .500? No one really asks that question here…but that is exactly what we’re thinking.
Buffalo brings the house now and a different set of skills than the Bengals. They have been able to stop the run with just their four linemen. That makes passing harder now for Brady. Marcell Darius just ripped apart Detroit last week getting 3 sacks and forcing a fumble. Buffalo’s defense is legit holding rushes to 3 yards an attempt or 71.4 yards per game.
Again, we’re going with one of the most lopsided games on the board. Over 80% of the bets are both on the Patriot’s point spread and on their moneyline. This one will probably go to +4 before game time where you will want to strike.
Kyle Orton is a concern, but he’s 1-0 at home vs. New England. He’s been here before. He’s a concern, but a bet is never perfect.
Expect some players to be fat and happy off of that home win forgetting that they have some core issues.
***The Bills sit at 3-2 with the 7th hardest strength of schedule in the league.
The Bills are definately taking this game seriously against the Patriots while the Pats will probably be thinking about all of the times they’ve beaten Buffalo. The Patriots are 3-2 as well but have had almost a 30% easier schedule. In addition, the Patriots play again on Thursday (in four days from this game). Their thinking about two games right now really…
SYSTEM: Road favorites (on Sunday
) going into Thursday games are 5-13-2 (27.8%) ATS
and just 10-10 since 1989.