NFL 2011 FUTURES:
I’ve got the raw results of three models here to calculate an edge for regular season wins. I am also including 2010 turnover margins as well as a public perception model. Have a look at the chart here (https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=14rORVKk3tandVIIzLqg26EFwM4zqtokHGFET1hRRF0O_f8n7nWZWkUpeKxgP&hl=en). One standard deviation is marked in orange. One point five standard deviations marked in dark orange. Two full standard deviations are marked in red. Regular edge’s are marked in green. I’ve tallied up plus factors on the right. If you are confused, I would lean most heavily towards turnover regression. Here’s what I’m taking personally, but you’ve got some info on all of the games:
You’ll have to shop around. If you aren’t sure on something you can always shoot me an email if you want. Here’s what I’m going with:
Jacksonville Jaguars Regular Season Wins
#2029 OVER 6.0 -170 (2 units)
Last year, Jacksonville was a very average 8-8. The team averaged a 0.9375 turnover margin for the 2010 regular season, and still managed 8 wins. I don’t like the chalk here, and I don’t much like Jack Del Rio or Garrard all that much. Garrard doesn’t seem to play with any interest in the game, but I’ll give him one thing: he’s consistent. Questionable offensive line, and no real good go to receivers. All in all, a very average team; if average is 8 wins, and last year was bad luck I’ll take over 6.0 ; over 6.5 for less chalk would be fine too, but I’d do it about a half unit smaller.
New York Giants Regular Season Wins
#15041 OVER 9.0 -140 (3 units)
I’ll put the Giants next to this one. I loved to see their win in week 2. Tom Coughlin has got this team fired up for this season. Eli Manning seems to be growing linearly. He really botched things up in the end, but I think that only adds value to this. The team is well rounded, and could easily make it all the way into the playoffs. Not too difficult of a schedule either so I’ll make this one the top RSW future.
Buffalo Bills Regular Season Wins
#2007 OVER OVER 5.0 -178 (1.5 units)
The Bills worked their butts off last year by the end. They had the worst luck on the turnover end with an average 1.0625 margin. Similar situation: 2010 Detroit Lions who ended up 12-4 ATS and 4 more wins than they have in 2009. It’s not to the same degree though. The Lions were sort of a once in a blue moon situation. The Bills are bad though; don’t get me wrong. Just not completely horrible.
New England Patriots Regular Season Wins
#2038 UNDER 11.5 +115 (to win 1.5 units)
Not a huge edge here, but have a look: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/
Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Wins
#2004 UNDER 10 -105 (2 units)
The Falcons were a screw up team last year, and you can blame it on turnovers; they did well there, and still sputtered out in the end. 10 wins seems like far too many…this is a team with lots of holes, and it doesn’t look like they fixed much. Public hype with the Julio Jones trade could be inflating it a little. I thought that this line would be higher actually, but it is what it is. I wouldn’t go any heavier than 2% on this one. I have a feeling that they get rocked in their first game against the Bears. Looking at that one fyi…
New Orleans Saints Regular Season Wins
#2039 OVER 10 -140(1.5 units)
Super Bowl hangover is gone. The whole team was in disarray for a season; I expect that drunkness to be lifted this season. Brees is still a champion, and it just looked like an off year to me.
Dallas Cowboys Regular Season Wins
#2018 UNDER 9.0 -140 (1 units)
Lots of public hype here. Looks to me like Romo might have another frustrating season. This line is too high.
Pittsburgh Steelers Regular Season Wins
#2050 UNDER 11.0 -168 (1 unit)
Oakland Raiders Regular Season Wins
#2045 OVER 7.0 +180 (1 unit)