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2011-12 NCAAF Bowl Game Raw Projections

DateRotTeamLineO/UWINBYCOVERBYStrengthRESULT
20111231243Cincinnati3483.116.11*****WINNER!
20120102257Stanford3.5740.934.43****WINNER!
20120108268N Illinois1.562.52.864.36***WINNER!
20111227219Louisville344.51.074.07**LOST
20111228222Air Force370.50.793.79**WINNER!
20111221210Tcu-1055.513.603.60*LOST
20120104261W Virginia3.5600.003.50*WINNER!
20120102255Wisconsin671.5-2.563.44
20120106264Arkansas-7.562.510.843.34
20120102248Houston-5.556.58.643.14
20111222211Arizona St1465.5-11.142.86
20111227218Purdue-1.5604.032.53
20111231237Texas A&M-1064.512.502.50
20111217201Temple-6.548.58.972.47
20111220208Marshall3.548-1.112.39
20120109269Alabama1401.092.09
20120102252S Carolina-3474.791.79
20111231245Virginia1.548.50.161.66
20111226215N Carolina4.552.5-2.871.63
20111231240Georgia Tech-3.5514.931.43
20120102249Michigan St3.550-2.231.27
20111224214Southern Miss-66.990.99
20111229227Washington978.5-8.110.89
20111217206San Diego St-5585.870.87
20120107265Smu4.548-3.640.86
20111217203Utah St-2572.710.71
20120102253Florida-2.544.53.160.66
20111230232Iowa St245-1.460.54
20111230234Mississippi St-6.547.57.000.50
20111230235Iowa13.557.5-13.040.46
20111228223California348-2.610.39
20111230229Tulsa2.556-2.160.34
20111229225Notre Dame347-2.700.30
20120103259Michigan-2.550.52.760.26
20111231242Illinois-2472.110.11

NBA SYSTEM (#001 – NBA) 2.5.2012

When a team that just blew out their opponent meets another team that just blew out theirs, the NBA total (without any other parameters) has a strong tendency to go under the total. The SDQL below uses group-by to reveal and checklist that this trend has linear value down to its smaller sample size (under 150 games).

To see a good breakdown by margins, use this SDQL: p:margin>=10,15,20 and op:margin>=10,15,20 and site

SDQL TEXT: ”p:margin>=18 and op:margin>=18 and H
RECORD: U/O 85-46-2 (-3.1, 64.9%)

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NCAAB ATS SYSTEM (#001 – CBB) 2.5.2012 

Play against a Home Favorite of -10 points or more heavily inflated by the fact that they’ve covered 4, 5, or 6 of their last six games’ spreads and they have a 40% to 70% better team record. This is a big time nose pincher that produces a lot contrarian value for the road dog. In Database history, this road dog is 153-91-5 (2.55, 62.7%)!

SDQL TEXT: ”Sum(o:ats margin > 0@o:team and o:season and o:season = o:season, N=6) > 3 and AD and line >= 10 and 0.7 > (o:wins / (o:wins + o:losses)) – (wins / (wins + losses)) > 0.4
RECORD: ATS 153-91-5 (2.55, 62.7%)

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NHL SU SYSTEM (#001 – NHL)

Play against a Away Favorite off of 3 or more wins by more than one goal. Three straight clear, hard fought wins deserves a breather. In database history, the home dog is a solid proposition winning 56.9% (49-37 SU, 0.3 ppg). This improves if that same away favorite has extended that streak to 4 or more wins by more than one goal. Now it is really breather time unless this team is possessed. For a NHL dog system this is really quite good: 26-9 SU (74.3%) wins for the home dog if the road fav. has extended a streak 4 games winning each by 2 or more goals!

SDQL TEXT: ”AF and Sum(margin > 1@team and season,N=4) = 4.0

RECORD: SU: 9-26 (-1.0, 25.7%…74.3% SU Dog Winners!)

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