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3-2-1 +3.61% Yesterday *113-110-10 +31.03 Units Now in MLB

Game Result Status Pick Amount
LA Angels Lost 12:35 PM ET Baltimore -1 +120 2.00
Baltimore -
Detroit WINNER! 2:10 PM ET Kansas City +1 -109 2.00
Kansas City -
Cincinnati Pushed 2:20 PM ET Cincinnati -1 +102 2.00
Chi. Cubs -
Cleveland Lost 8:05 PM ET Texas -1 +109 2.00
Texas -
NY Yankees WINNER! 10:05 PM ET Oakland -1 +123 2.00
Oakland -
Arizona WINNER! 10:10 PM ET Arizona +105 3.00
LA Dodgers -    (Top Play)
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What One Thing Makes You a Professional Gambler…

Slight lean towards San Antonio. I have to kick myself a little bit for not taking Miami yesterday following what our home favorite system pinwheels off of but got filtered out by ‘day!=Monday.’ That parameter is statistically meaningful; however, I asked a friend who knows NBA better than I do if it is LOGICAL, and he said ‘no’ and couldn’t draw up any reason to use it…but that would be some strong variance.
The Heat ended up blowing out the Pacers doing three things:
1. Proving our system right (home favorite in the playoffs off of a no cover loss).
2. The raw numbers backed Miami slightly.
3. The public was wrong.
…anyways, the chatter I’m hearing now is all on Miami and all against the Spurs. The prevailing thought that I am hearing is that the Spurs have had this long waiting period before this game now and Miami is hot and rolling. I love the idea of betting the Spurs with all of those points; however, Miami is….historically good this season. The Spurs seem like a team you could balance on the edge of a knife, but the Heat have produced runs in the second half of this season that I haven’t seen before. I’d pass here and just enjoy this one…
LA and the UNDER looks good in the matchup vs. my B-Hawks. I’m passing we’re hitting those (raw number) Unders at an incredible rate this season, but really, when they’re a bit higher than a -4.4 p:OUm. Most of the public is on those two leans and this is a big marquee game. I suggest doing what I’m doing: pass.
 
In my humble opinion, the best betters are mainly defined by what they PASS on or don’t gamble on…(which is sort of to say that the best gamblers are people who don’t gamble lol). That can’t be said enough in these playoffs where you have more uncharted territory; some cappers thrive this time of year, but since we base our plays on raw data and historical facts and situations, the playoffs generally get played more lightly due to just that fact. One thing I’ll add about the guys who thrive betting marquee games: they generally don’t have 84%+ season to season positive streaks for 10+ years across 8 different sports and 100% cumulative cash positive years career.
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MLB Betting Trends – Terry Collins

MLB Betting Trends - Terry Collins
*The New York Mets are 74-41-7 (+1.81 rpg, 64.3%) OVER the total for +28.65 units and +21.3% roi as +100 to +150 road underdogs under Manager Terry Collins. Today the Mets square off against the Chicago Cubs in the Windy City starting Dillon Gee over Travis Wood for +143 on the Money Line and 8.5 as the lined total.

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MLB Betting Trends – Jason Hammel

Jason Hammel
*Jason Hammel is 20-7 (+1.37 rpg, 74.1%, +15.02 units, +51.4% roi) since 2012 for +150 to favorite. Tonight he’ll be starting against Jeremy Hellickson and the Tampa Bay Rays at home for -113.

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MLB Betting Trend of the Day – Stephen Strasburg

MLB Betting Trend of the Day - Stephen Strasburg
*Stephen Strasburg is 10-1-0 (3.00, 90.9%, +76.8% roi) OVER the totals since 2012 after a game he pitched allowing 1 or fewer earned runs. Today he’ll start for the Washington Nationals facing the San Diego Padres on the road for -145 with the total lined at 7. Will this one go over? See if the raw numbers agree.

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NBA Betting Trends – Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls

NBA Betting Trends - Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls
Two big teams collide here with some BIG trends backing them:
*This season the Miami Heat are 19-2 (9.9 ppg, 90.5%) straight up on the money line for some huge return after 2+ games going over the total.
*Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls are 11-5-2 (68.8%) ATS and 16-2 (+9.67 ppg, 88.9%) SU off of a home loss this season (23-3 SU in the last two seasons!).

Tomorrow Tom Thibideau and Erik Spoelstra watch their teams’ dramatics unfold in Chicago…the Bulls being 8 point home favorites. That’s a lot of value!

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MLB Free Picks – Houston Astros

MLB Free Picks - Houston Astros - Joe BlantonMLB Free Picks - Houston Astros

#915 Houston Astros +128
over the LA Angels
(1 unit to win 1.28)

List: Norris / Blanton

In Houston:
*MAY SYSTEM - 480-348 (58%, +133.94 units) active on the Astros today.
SYSTEM #020 – 136-132 +46.42 units is active on the Astros today.
(plus a raw numbers play).

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Tom Thibodeau Betting Trend

Tom Thibodeau Betting Trend
*The Chicago Bulls are a massive 48-15 (+7.3 ppg, 76.2%) straight up and 40-21-2 (65.6%) ATS avg line: -1.6 under head coach Tom Thibodeau where the total is 181 to 190.

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Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Trends

Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Trends
*This season the Oakland Athletics are 25-5-0 (2.45, 83.3%) avg total: 7.9 / +19.5 units / +59.9% roi OVER the total in games lined between 6.5 and 9.

*They’re also 20-3-0 (3.02, 87.0%) OVER the total this season against teams that strike out 7+ times a game. Maybe they don’t take these offenses seriously and get caught in a breather spot.

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Lance Lynn Scouting Report

Lance Lynn Scouting Report

Lance Lynn Power Stats 5.7.2013 :

*Since 2012, St. Louis Cardinal’s starting pitcher Lance Lynn has produced a team record of 23-3 (+3.31 rpg, 88.5%, +19.89 units, +53.2% roi) straight up in games with the Vegas total between 9 and 7. Nine and seven are the two most common totals in MLB so this might be to say that he thrives in unorthodox spots.

*Career, Lance Lynn is a massive 18-1 (+4.42 ppg, 94.7%, +16.25 units, +55.7% roi) straight up in all division games he has started in. He is truly a valuable player to the club.

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April and May Heavy Chalk System

Last year I posted this season somewhere as “SU: 184-72 (1.9 rpg, 71.8%, 4.4% Roi)” and now it is 211-78 73%, +6.0% roi.
The system is so good to me because it is very very simple and logical. Here it is:
 
SYSTEM: *In database history, Early in the Season (April, May), heavy chalk (-250 < line < -200) is 211-78 (+1.9 rpg, 73%, +38.5 units, +6.0% roi)
SDQL Text: ’-250 < line < -200 and (month = 4 or month = 5)’
 
- That’s 4 (arguably 2) parameters: month=4, month=5, line<-200, line<-250
- Eight out of 10 winning seasons. Losing seasons are marginal…
- Good sample size: 289 games.
 

Madison Bumgarner 4-0 +$400 this season averaging a -152.2 line in his starts.

Madison Bumgarner 4-0 +$400 this season averaging a -152.2 line in his starts.

THE LOGIC: In the last two months of regular season (database history), this same spot (‘-250 < line < -200′ – Heavy Chalk) bankrupted bettors coming in at 403-198 (67.1%, -34.64 units). In those two month, you can be sure these were the games the public was really loving, and what happens in the last months of MLB is team clinching spots and pacing all differently. 
 
Consider that…
*Last regular season, before August, the #1 team for units won was the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-44 57.3% +21.63 units)
*Last regular season, starting August, the #1 team for units lost as Favorites was the Pittsburgh Pirates (9-16 36% +13.68 units)
 

I thought that was interesting that the #1 team for each category was the same.

 
Anyways, back to the bigger picture: If the public loses on heavy chalk in this range, does it stand to reason that the betting public would want to touch them again come next April and May?
…well that would explain at least why this returns a pretty good amount of dollars (we get more value with less betting competition). 
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What to Bet after April in MLB

May Home Teams in Baseball

As most people know, a home edge exists just about every North American sport and in mosts sports across the globe. Why? It is debatable as to why exactly, but it is something pretty close to this: the home team has a psychological advantage over the visiting team as a result of playing in familiar facilities and in front of supportive fans. Home edge is so powerful that from 2005 to 2010, blindly taking the home underdog has yielded a 2050-2405 (46%, +100.02 units, +2.2% roi) record!

Since 2004, the home edge has averaged a +4.3% edge in all MLB games (22.4k games)…

Which Month has had the Strongest Home Advantage?

Since 2004, home edge has been the strongest in the month of MAY (+6.3%); and that is *right after the second weakest month for the home team: April sports a meesly +2.6% home edge.

Fact: In May, the home team hasn’t just had a greater edge; home teams in May since 2004 have been massively profitable having gone 2135-1654 (56.3%, +119.13 units, +2.4% roi)!

Fact: In April, the home team has lost bettors more money than any other month since 2004 having gone 1692-1522 (52.6%, -171.97 units, -4.0% roi).

The Logic:

This is most definately meaningful statistically speaking and it also seems to be logical: in April, teams aren’t ranked, and if they do get ahead or behind it never means a whole lot to most people because the season is so long. So May is the first month where the fans see the game heating up and getting competitive. This fuels the teams. Weather begins to improve as well; this sparks up the crowd.

Also, bettors overreact to what did well and what did bad in the previous months. These things both naturally even out AND the bookmakers know to capitalize on what people can’t stomach betting…and this is how each season usually pans out…all season. 

What to Wager On in May:

The Premise: Home teams in May have been 2135-1654 (56.3%, +119.13 units, +2.4% roi) with two losing seasons out of nine. You could bet this one alone, but you’d be wagering about 410-420 games a season and your roi would be low. On the other hand, it usually pays to not overthink things….but let’s boil it down with some basic logical filters and filters that eliminate anomaly situations:

The System: *Home teams in May are 476-333 (+146.6 units, +15.6% roi) -175 or cheaper, regular 7<=total<=10, live team – scored 2+ runs last game, sub .600, win percent less than opponent, non-interleague game, streak<=3, opponent previous margin <=2 and streak>=-4.

That is a lot of parameters, but since we started with a huge 2 parameter premise, basic filters that eliminate odd matchups and add to the premise help. We’ll also be taking less plays. Keep this one in your back pocket next month. Use it as a filter or a starting point for your own MLB capping.

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F.A.Q. – WHAT MAKES A GOOD SYSTEM? -

This system fits the parameters we like to look for:
*Since 2008, +1.5 pt to favorite (line<2) road teams are 95-40-2 ATS (70.3%, +3.4 ppg) after 2 or more straight double digit home wins.

Here’s what those are:

*100-150 game sample size
*At least 5 seasons and no more than 1/5 losing seasons (this one has 6 out of 6 winning seasons).
*No more than 5 parameters. Less is more logical usually. In this one you have:
Site+Line+Streak+Type of Streak+Season = 5 parameters
 
That last point should be logical to everyone. Ask yourself what makes more sense: 
A. The life expectancy of people who smoke is lower.
B. The life expectancy of people who don’t walk their dogs on Friday’s in the rain is higher.
 
Winning seasons should make sense too. We’d like our system to hold up both consistently and over a long period of time.
 
The 100-150 game sample size is both less logical and flexible (or at least relative to the time frame and sport).
Just trust me though, in the many years of doing this, I’ve found 100-150 to be the sweet spot. 
 
I hope that helps; some subscribers were asking recently. Every day, I’ll give you guys a good system that you can bookmark and have alert you when a play comes up courtesy of Sportsdatabase.com
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Top NFL Conference Play…

*Top Play
**Runner Up
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Baltimore 28 6:30 PM ET **Baltimore +8.5 1.50
New England 13      WINNER!  

Last week the Patriot nailed the Texans to the wall 41-28 ; a pure ass whooping. Now they have a super inflated playoff line against an inspired team off of a win over the Denver Broncos. Playoff teams off of home wins where 62 or more total points were scored follow up the next week just 6-16 SU 5-16 ATS. That suggests a play on both Baltimore and Atlanta this weekend.

 
This week we have a rematch of last year’s AFC championship game where New England pulled a very lucky win due to a Baltimore missed field goal. So they’ve already proven that (if luck goes their way) they can do this let alone keep it close which is all we need here. THIS season the Ravens won 31-30 over the Patriots in week 3. Since 2008, home favorites revenging a loss where they’re off of two or more wins and covers as favorites are just 8-20 ATS (18-10 SU)
 
Other thoughts…
 
-With TE Rob Gronkowski out this game becomes more of an even matchup.

-The main reason this is only a runner up play and not a top play is because I don’t like to bet against Bill Belichick seeking revenge: he’s 44-24-2 ATS with the Patriots in this spot. I think at this point a lot of bettors are thinking about this though so it is important to see that the average margin was less than what this spread is.
*Since 2003, road teams play a consecutive road game get undervalued: they’re 416-315-17 (56.9%) ATS. That is 284-207-11 (57.8%) ATS if they’re an underdog.
 
and finally, we’ll keep plugging away at what we won with last week:
 
*The Ravens are better at pressuring the quarterback. Since 2004, in the playoffs, teams averaging more sacks that the other team are 62-46-1 ATS (57.4%). If that differential is > 0.2 then it is 52-34-0 ATS.
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Top CBB Play…

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Clemson 62 6:00 PM ET Clemson +9 1.80
N.C. State 66      WINNER!  
Top play for today is on Clemson +9 -
-The last 7 matchups between these two teams went:
CLEM - NCST 
71 – 64 (+7 pts)
63 – 51 (+12 pts)
73 – 70 (+3 pts)
57 – 59 (-2 pts)
60 – 50 (+10 pts)
61 – 69 (-8 pts)
72 – 69 (+3 pts)
….not once would NC State have covered a spread like this.
 
-Add to that, NC State is just 8-7 SU (-1.47 ppg)  0-8-2 ATS since 2010 at home off of a loss.
I smell a close one or two possession game or a SU win for Clemson here. You might take a little on the moneyline for a big return.
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