*The New York Mets are 74-41-7 (+1.81 rpg, 64.3%) OVER the total for +28.65 units and +21.3% roi as +100 to +150 road underdogs under Manager Terry Collins. Today the Mets square off against the Chicago Cubs in the Windy City starting Dillon Gee over Travis Wood for +143 on the Money Line and 8.5 as the lined total.
*Jason Hammel is 20-7 (+1.37 rpg, 74.1%, +15.02 units, +51.4% roi) since 2012 for +150 to favorite. Tonight he’ll be starting against Jeremy Hellickson and the Tampa Bay Rays at home for -113.
*Stephen Strasburg is 10-1-0 (3.00, 90.9%, +76.8% roi) OVER the totals since 2012 after a game he pitched allowing 1 or fewer earned runs. Today he’ll start for the Washington Nationals facing the San Diego Padres on the road for -145 with the total lined at 7. Will this one go over? See if the raw numbers agree.
Two big teams collide here with some BIG trends backing them:
*This season the Miami Heat are 19-2 (9.9 ppg, 90.5%) straight up on the money line for some huge return after 2+ games going over the total.
*Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls are 11-5-2 (68.8%) ATS and 16-2 (+9.67 ppg, 88.9%) SU off of a home loss this season (23-3 SU in the last two seasons!).
Tomorrow Tom Thibideau and Erik Spoelstra watch their teams’ dramatics unfold in Chicago…the Bulls being 8 point home favorites. That’s a lot of value!
*The Chicago Bulls are a massive 48-15 (+7.3 ppg, 76.2%) straight up and 40-21-2 (65.6%) ATS avg line: -1.6 under head coach Tom Thibodeau where the total is 181 to 190.
*This season the Oakland Athletics are 25-5-0 (2.45, 83.3%) avg total: 7.9 / +19.5 units / +59.9% roi OVER the total in games lined between 6.5 and 9.
*They’re also 20-3-0 (3.02, 87.0%) OVER the total this season against teams that strike out 7+ times a game. Maybe they don’t take these offenses seriously and get caught in a breather spot.
Lance Lynn Power Stats 5.7.2013 :
*Since 2012, St. Louis Cardinal’s starting pitcher Lance Lynn has produced a team record of 23-3 (+3.31 rpg, 88.5%, +19.89 units, +53.2% roi) straight up in games with the Vegas total between 9 and 7. Nine and seven are the two most common totals in MLB so this might be to say that he thrives in unorthodox spots.
*Career, Lance Lynn is a massive 18-1 (+4.42 ppg, 94.7%, +16.25 units, +55.7% roi) straight up in all division games he has started in. He is truly a valuable player to the club.
I thought that was interesting that the #1 team for each category was the same.
As most people know, a home edge exists just about every North American sport and in mosts sports across the globe. Why? It is debatable as to why exactly, but it is something pretty close to this: the home team has a psychological advantage over the visiting team as a result of playing in familiar facilities and in front of supportive fans. Home edge is so powerful that from 2005 to 2010, blindly taking the home underdog has yielded a 2050-2405 (46%, +100.02 units, +2.2% roi) record!
Since 2004, the home edge has averaged a +4.3% edge in all MLB games (22.4k games)…
Which Month has had the Strongest Home Advantage?
Since 2004, home edge has been the strongest in the month of MAY (+6.3%); and that is *right after the second weakest month for the home team: April sports a meesly +2.6% home edge.
Fact: In May, the home team hasn’t just had a greater edge; home teams in May since 2004 have been massively profitable having gone 2135-1654 (56.3%, +119.13 units, +2.4% roi)!
Fact: In April, the home team has lost bettors more money than any other month since 2004 having gone 1692-1522 (52.6%, -171.97 units, -4.0% roi).
This is most definately meaningful statistically speaking and it also seems to be logical: in April, teams aren’t ranked, and if they do get ahead or behind it never means a whole lot to most people because the season is so long. So May is the first month where the fans see the game heating up and getting competitive. This fuels the teams. Weather begins to improve as well; this sparks up the crowd.
Also, bettors overreact to what did well and what did bad in the previous months. These things both naturally even out AND the bookmakers know to capitalize on what people can’t stomach betting…and this is how each season usually pans out…all season.
What to Wager On in May:
The Premise: Home teams in May have been 2135-1654 (56.3%, +119.13 units, +2.4% roi) with two losing seasons out of nine. You could bet this one alone, but you’d be wagering about 410-420 games a season and your roi would be low. On the other hand, it usually pays to not overthink things….but let’s boil it down with some basic logical filters and filters that eliminate anomaly situations:
The System: *Home teams in May are 476-333 (+146.6 units, +15.6% roi) -175 or cheaper, regular 7<=total<=10, live team – scored 2+ runs last game, sub .600, win percent less than opponent, non-interleague game, streak<=3, opponent previous margin <=2 and streak>=-4.
That is a lot of parameters, but since we started with a huge 2 parameter premise, basic filters that eliminate odd matchups and add to the premise help. We’ll also be taking less plays. Keep this one in your back pocket next month. Use it as a filter or a starting point for your own MLB capping.
*Since 2008, +1.5 pt to favorite (line<2) road teams are 95-40-2 ATS (70.3%, +3.4 ppg) after 2 or more straight double digit home wins.
Here’s what those are:
|Baltimore||28||6:30 PM ET||**Baltimore +8.5||1.50|
Last week the Patriot nailed the Texans to the wall 41-28 ; a pure ass whooping. Now they have a super inflated playoff line against an inspired team off of a win over the Denver Broncos. Playoff teams off of home wins where 62 or more total points were scored follow up the next week just 6-16 SU 5-16 ATS. That suggests a play on both Baltimore and Atlanta this weekend.
|Clemson||62||6:00 PM ET||Clemson +9||1.80|
|Seattle||28||1:00 PM ET||*Seattle +3||*2.00|
The New Mexico Lobos are 24-2-1 (7.09, 92.3%) ATS and 26-3 (15.48, 89.7%) SU after two straight games with strong defensive effort (60 pts. or less allowed per game). Check out the raw numbers to see if they agree with the trend tonight as the Lobos face UNLV at home with -3 points.