Pro Computer Gambler | Computer Sports Betting Systems Providing sport betting tips using computer generated sports betting systems for over 10 years. Read more... 2016-06-22T14:47:17Z http://procomputergambler.net/feed/atom/ http://procomputergambler.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/cropped-65143_ProComputerGambler_Redrow_RD_M1-e1456164718420-32x32.jpg Tom Herbert <![CDATA[Response to Reader: MLB ‘Handles’ Betting System]]> http://procomputergambler.net/?p=11903 2016-06-22T14:47:17Z 2016-06-22T14:46:18Z

Originally Posted by royboymiami:

Hey Herb Quick Question

After watching the ARZ game where the underdog +100 won SU
and the underhit -8.5

I saw the same exact line for Col v Marlins and I took Colorado +100 and under 8.5 BOTH HIT

Do you ever see underdog lines that are simialr and have the same results at the end of games… I was surprised both underdogs won str8 up and the game went under

Interesting. First thought I have is that it is coicidental, but anything is worth digging into….so long as you lean heavier on seeing most things as variance and not worth betting.

Here’s what I’ve seen:

#1. Since 2004, when the total has been very high (>10), the Underdog has profitted on the blind: 740-944 +23.67 units. Large sample, simple premise; this has to be considered whatever you’re doing.

#2. MLB has ‘handles’; 7 and 9. That is, where the actual scores of games most commonly land. With that said, the total 8.5 is a funny one right under a major handle. 8.5 is also the most commonly lined total (right a bit above 9) in all games since 2004. In those games, the home dog is 386-410 +62.90 units SU when the game went under the total. Perhaps an indication that: when you see that line (8.5) and like the under, maybe take a look at the home dog as well….

I don’t want to lead you down the wrong path there with #2. That might all be hogwash; whereas, I actually think there is something to #1 and believe it might be something worth pursuing…making a system out of one specific (arbirtray let’s say) integral total is a statistical no-no.

]]>
0
Tom Herbert <![CDATA[Daily Sports Betting Systems: Astros Under]]> http://procomputergambler.net/?p=11793 2016-05-21T15:25:52Z 2016-05-21T15:25:52Z Here are some of the top sports betting systems we’re looking at for today:

MLB Sports Betting Systems:

  1. The Mariners are 15-0 SU as a 130+ favorite when opponents starter has an ERA of higher than 3.85 on the season.
  2. The Blue Jays are 10-0 OU after a win in which they did not walk the opponent.
  3. The Rangers are 0-13 OU after a road game in which they struck out at least ten times and it is not the first game of a series.
  4. The Nationals are 0-15 OU on the road off a road game when seeking same season revenge vs their opponents starting pitcher.
  5. The Mets are 0-18 RL as a home favorite when opponents starter has an ERA of higher than 3.7 on the season.
]]>
0
Tom Herbert <![CDATA[A Money Management Sports Betting System Strategy!]]> http://procomputergambler.net/?p=11629 2016-04-20T17:50:04Z 2016-04-20T17:46:00Z Note: Here is an excellent essay on sports betting system money management written in 2011 by my friend Russ in the sportsdatabase.com googlegroup forum. I don’t completely agree that this is the best way to do things, but the thoughts are so incredibly solid. Let it be a starting point for you to develop your own money management sports betting system strategy!

A Different Perspective on Money Management
By. Mr. East

Let me begin by saying, I am not a gambler, but an astute investor, and 10% of my portfolio happens to revolve around sports, because I am good at it, or let’s say  learned how to be good at it.

There is one critical area where I differ from anyone else you will ever see in this culture. I don’t view sports wagering as a football season, or a baseball season, I view it as a continuous investment cycle measured in 5 year increments. I happen to play 6 sports per year (MLB,WNBA,NCAAF,NFL,NCAAB,NBA). I have invested a total of 4,000.00 per sport, or a total investment of 24,000 in sports related investments.

money managementLet’s assume you had money to invest, and sought out a savvy financial guru to help you. You liked his track record, is approach, and decided to opt with him (or her). You hand him the money you want to invest, and let’s say it is the same 24,000.

Three months later you take a peek at your portfolio and the stock market is going down fast, and with it your portfolio is showing a 20% loss! You also notice he is buying more stocks, because that is the right strategy! So if your measuring him over 3 months, he can’t possibly help you! If you don’t give him at least 4-5 years, he knows he can’t help you, because there are fluctuations within the marketplace, but he also knows, long term, he will benefit from them!

See, sports wagering is exactly the same, but 99.9% of people approach  it completely differently! If they have a losing football season, it’s over, they lost! Hold on! if you tapped out, your right you did lose, and money management is your issue, sound familiar?

Here is my approach. I know I will win in every sport over 5 years, I don’t know which year I will win in which sports, but I don’t really care. NCAAB season just ended. I connected on 55.2% of all wagers. I closed my account, as opposed to allow it to lie dormant, and put it where I can continue to get a return, but also ensure it is liquid, because come Novemebr I’m back in. The 4,000.00 was initially wagered at 200.00 per game, a 20-1 ratio which by the way is not large enough!..but I have enough experience with systems I run to hand play out every game for at least 7 years to see what is the worst position I will ever be in, and if I have a cushion, I’m good.

My season never ends! I now take the baseball capital and load up in April, and do the same thing. I’m diversified, I have 6 sports, I will win over 5 years, it may be baseball that carries the load, it may be football, I don’t know which, but they all have good track records.

I challenge anyone to have the discipline to do this! If you are capable of winning 53.5%, read that again, 53.5% you will be rich! Most think if you hit less than 55,56…60% you can’t make money. Do you realize why Vegas throws card counters in blackjack out who have a 1-2.5% advantage? because they will get rich!

The secret is treating this as a singular investment that doesn’t end with the Superbowl, or the World Seriers, it ends in 5 years, and reevaluate.

See in 5 years at 55% 4,000 becomes 47,000! Read that again. HOW you ask? because the 20-1 ratio of wagers I expand to 25-1 for added protection, so when the account reaches 6,000 the wager size is now 250 a game, then 300, then 400, etc. Then I spend 6 months when that sport ends collecting interest on the money, and reinvest in the next season.

I don’t care if you have 100 or 4000 or 40000 if your not doing this, you can win 55%+ and you will lose in the end!

-Mr. East (Russ)

 

 

]]>
0
Tom Herbert <![CDATA[Top Daily Betting Systems for Tuesday]]> http://procomputergambler.net/?p=11230 2016-02-09T18:46:34Z 2016-02-09T18:46:34Z Top Daily Betting Systems for Tuesday

daily pcg betting systems
In the News: Gambling on Betting Systems and the Super Bowl

The odds in all forms of gambling remain static and fixed, but people will employ any number of superstitions or betting systems in an attempt to defy these odds. As an example, the gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that, if something happens

Daily Top Betting Systems and Trends:

  • The Houston Rockets are 12-0 ATS (8.50 ppg) as a dog after a double-digit loss in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.
  • The Dallas Mavericks are 7-0 ATS (6.86 ppg) since Dec 26, 2015 at home after a win
  • Teams are 6-0 ATS (2.75 ppg) since Feb 04, 2016 as a home favorite after a game as a road dog (‘Dallas Mavericks’)
  • The Utah Jazz are 0-8 ATS (-8.12 ppg) since Dec 14, 2015 as a road dog
  • The New York Knicks are 0-6-1 ATS (-9.07 ppg) since Jan 22, 2016 after a game at home
  • The Golden State Warriors are 60-4 ATS (13.00 ppg) since Apr 27, 2014 at home
  • The Milwaukee Bucks are 35-14 ATS (3.87 ppg) since Feb 03, 2014 at home after a loss

Betting Systems and Trends suggest a play on: 
The Dallas Mavericks (we’re 3-0 ATS on these now!)

]]>
2
Tom Herbert <![CDATA[When the Spurs Score | Spurs Contrarian NBA Team of 2016]]> http://procomputergambler.net/?p=11044 2016-01-16T18:07:21Z 2016-01-16T18:07:21Z What happens when the Spurs score a point in NBA? I was asking myself this the other day when thinking about my NBA season. Do their points count for more than other teams? Are the San Antonio Spurs playing differently than the rest of the league? Of course they are. How does this phenomenon reflect the score of our betting season?

2-1 ATS yesterday. I’d like to get at least 15 units for the season with these official newsletter picks. The NBA raw numbers have excelled and I’m never sure how much more you can ask from them, but this appears to be their season.

Tis the nature of the process. This season I didn’t want to do CBB at all….how funny is that!
*CBB Raw numbers with a 0.5 edge or more are 604-529 53.3% +48.55 units ATS this season and even betting in the higher tiers (>1.00 , >1.5 , >2.0 etc)!

The Spurs ScoreI’ve always preached the idea that the best bets are the ones that stink…the ones that you have a difficult time stomaching. For me personally, that is just basketball in general. I’ve always had a much better grasp on Football and MLB and felt that there is much more of a random factor in hoops. Perhaps it is the direction basketball is moving in now. You have people arguing that the three point shooting is taking away from the traditional quality of the game

….and yet, with all of the NBA teams trying to quicken pace which team (other than the Warriors is doing the best? The Spurs! And what do the Spurs do? I love what the Spurs do, they pace and manage and play old style. They’re sticking to their guns and NOT going where the rest of the league is going. When the Spurs score, it means something bigger.

This sort of diversity amongst teams though and their playing styles has certainly made the NBA much less of a big pile of MEH for me. I guess, as much as I hate to admit it, perhaps when I AM a fan and know the sport well as a fan, I do actually do better capping it….a statement which boldly goes against a theory I’ve had for many many years: That is, the less of a fan of the sport you are, the better a capper of it you’ll be. Taking those gut twisting value bets won’t be as difficult is the big reason there. Also, overreaction to key player injuries in a big pitfall you won’t get into as much.
I could waffle on more but here are some trends….

When the Spurs Score:

The points count for more…

  • Since 1997, the Spurs are 664-164 80.2% Straight up. The Spurs score 100.2 ppg on average at home and the Spurs score 102.3 ppg in home wins.
  • By contrast, the league scores 1.2 points more on average in home wins and 2.4 points more on average in wins in general since 1997.
  • This season, the league is scoring 1.1 points more on average than what the Spurs score in wins.
  • The point: The Spurs sit with the 2nd best record in the league and it isn’t even close to third place OKC Thunder who are 8 games behind!

So next time you hear someone talking about how the league has changed and that the pace has quickened and the sport isn’t what it was: inform them or remember that there isn’t much of a correlation between high powered offense and team record (excluding the Warriors who are, beyond a doubt, an absolute anomaly).

]]>
2
Tom Herbert <![CDATA[Good and Bad Sports Betting Lines]]> http://procomputergambler.net/?p=11037 2016-01-14T22:26:52Z 2016-01-14T22:26:52Z When the Sports Betting Line is Good

The pointspread on a game is a measure of what linemakers think the betting public will think of the two teams in a given game. Much thought is given to what the richest and best bettors will think of the matchup, but the general public’s opinion is also taken into consideration. The richest and best bettors, wiseguys and professionals, have a greater effect on the line because they bet more money and are thought to have a better opinion then the casual player. The casual player though, has an influence too, especially in certain games. This is because the casual bettor is more likely to bet certain teams— popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys, the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers in the NFL, and Notre Dame, Florida State, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State. Texas A&M, Nebraska and Colorado in the colleges. In certain games, and with certain teams, the casual players, called squares by bookmakers, will have as much influence over the line as the professionals. In fact, in many games the casual players will line up to bet one side, while the wise-guys and professionals line up to bet the other. Because there are so many more casual players than wiseguys and professionals, bookmakers could have balanced action in this situation.

Sports betting lineIt is understanding why and how the line is made, and what makes it change during the week leading up to a football game, That is important to the gambler, This is because a sports bettor can make sports betting decisions based on line movement or the lack of line movement. He can also make decisions based on his anticipation of line moves. For instance, we can look at a specific NFL game played between team A and team B say, team B, playing at home, opened as a three-point favorite. Given That team A is not very good on the road and that team B does well at home and the history of close games let’s say between the teams, this seemed to be a right line. Upon further examination, we find other reasons why team B should be favored by three. Likewise, team A had played good games in opening the season 2-1. Their only loss was at against a tough opponent, and they didn’t deserve to be too much of an underdog versus team A. The line was also good in that action was equally divided, if we can Judge from the lack of Line movement in what was a game that saw more than moderate action. So what we have here is a right line and a good line. Bettors looked at this game, analyzed it up-and-down, and either divided themselves on each side or, like us, decided That the line was tight and left the game alone. The important thing is not that we examined the game, but that we examined the line in relation to the probabilities of the game producing a certain outcome and made a decision.

The same Sunday, we find a similar situation with Kansas City at Cleveland let’s say. The Browns were a 3.5 point favorite and had been all week. The Chiefs were undefeated and had looked great the previous week against Oakland. The Browns had opened with a loss at New England and had looked uninterested when beating Tampa Bay and Houston, teams that they clearly outclassed. Still, when it seems obvious that most bettors would love the Chiefs. the line didn’t move, Now what actually happened here was that the wiseguys and professionals thought this line was wrong and loaded up on Cleveland. They did so because they figured Cleveland would improve against competition they could take seriously, be-cause the Chiefs had lost six straight against the spread in games after they played the Raiders, and because the Chiefs looked like a candidate to bounce after come-from-be-hind wins against the New York Giants and Oakland in the previous two weeks. The casual players, meanwhile, backed Kansas City strongly. So what we have in this situation is a good line, one that divided action, but that after some statistical and situational analysis can be called wrong in that it is unlikely to predict the actual outcome of a contest .

When the Sports Betting Line is Bad

Linesmakers, of course, are not perfect. Some contend they are nowhere near perfect. Whatever the case, point spreads for sports betting are occasionally posted that do not divide action. Bad lines sometimes move by eight or 10 points through the course of a week and still do not get balanced action. What bettors must do is put themselves in a position to take advantage of lines and situations when those lines and situations will be to their advantage. Many football bettors lose opportunities, if not bets, because they join the party too late. So, here is our program for taking advantage of line:

Use Power Ratings — We cannot put enough emphasis on the use of power ratings, the distillation of a bettor’s opinion into a numerical form. Good power ratings should be able to give a bettor, at least, an initial assessment of a line. You can find two different sets of power ratings on this website via Raw numbers (paid) and our regular pcg power ratings (free).

Lines That Move — Many bettors follow line movement vary closely and bat either for or against certain kinds of movement. Betting on movement alone, though, will not produce enough winners over a lengthy period of time to satisfy most bettors. Always attempt to investigate why a line has moved before betting, and make an informed decision based on what was learned during the investigation.

Lines That Don’t Move — It might be better, anyway, to closely examine lines that don’t move. This situation can produce winners as easily as those that are produced in games that display fine movement. Many bettors, when they think about line analysis, think that they only need to concern themselves with line movement. But all lines deserve scrutiny. Anyway, the games in which there is no line movement are the ones that are most often overlooked. A bettor can sometimes find solid reasons for betting them.

Work in Advance — This is one of the 10 commandments of handicapping. Bettors will have to prepare and work hard if they want to win. If a bettor hopes to identify good plays based on line analysis, he will have to be ready to go as soon as the lines are posted. If he is not prepared at this time, he will certainly miss opportunities and may ruin his potential for profit.

Bettors and Linemakers — Remember that the pointspread performs different functions for bettors than it does for linemakers and bookmakers. Bettors look at the line as an indicator of the relative strengths or each team, Linemakers view the point-spread as a method to evenly divide action on each side of a game. Sometimes the pointspread will effectively serve both functions. Other times it will not. When the probability of a certain outcome exceeds the offered pointspread, the bettor can feel confident with his wager.

]]>
0
Tom Herbert <![CDATA[Powerball Vs. Spread Betting | Lotto Checker]]> http://procomputergambler.net/?p=11029 2016-01-14T20:52:54Z 2016-01-14T20:41:42Z powerball checkerThe main purpose of my service / your subscription with me is #1. for you to make / make more money #2. make you a better investor by doing more things right and less things wrong….so I thought debunking the lottery today was relevant with the Powerball reaching some insane highs.

A number of months ago, I debunked a fallacy in betting in which the parlay bet was being demonized by many, even sharp, gamblers…especially sharp bettors. I pointed out that the three team parlay offers better return than true odds (that is, the house actually eats a slight vig read past emails). Two teamers are a solid deal, but for 4+ teamers, the gap between true value and actual widens negatively and exponentially. The lottery is even worse and there is a similarity:

*As the odds of winning and VALUE go down, the more people want to make the bet (and yes, buying a lotto ticket is a “bet” although technically it should be considered something else). Last year Americans spent a total of $70.15 billion on lottery tickets, according to the North American Association of State and Provincial Lotteries.

As always, my statements aren’t opinions of mine; they’re facts. I’ve never bought a lotto or powerball ticket and I 99.9% likely never will. Why?

The odds. Read them and weep: http://campbellwealth.com/three-reasons-not-to-buy-a-lottery-ticket/

MY POINT

Lotto tickets being a fool bet probably isn’t anything new to anyone (I hope); so why bring it up? Not to insult anyone’s intelligence clearly; as I assume you’ve all heard these things.

My point is that this comes down to a discipline thing:
The Question: Is it okay to buy a lotto since it only costs a dollar or five or ten and there isn’t much to lose?

My answer: absolutely not. My guess is that if 90%+ of frequent lotto ticket buyers were presented with the proposition: will the earth turn on its axis fully in the next 48 hours? $1000 to win a ten cents — most wouldn’t take the bet; they’ll take the bet though where there is a better chance of being struck by lightning for a dollar. I’d take that bet any day of the week.

Fine. Why is it such a big issue?

Buying a lotto ticket with that mindset (“oh come on, it is just a dollar”) is like selling your financial soul. I’m all about not setting bad precedents; maybe you know how it goes: you break a 20 dollar bill and have some singles and buy a sucker that isn’t worth a penny. “Just this once” — These little fool purchases are so easily forgotten until they all add up and even then, it is hard to put your finger on what it was exactly that ate away your bank account.

Anyways, so much for New Years resolutions….never too late to change. At a minimum, by lotto tickets privately — if you have kids and want them to respect you, don’t indulge your guilty pleasure in front of them.

]]>
0