Straight out the databases (as of 9/20/2011) I have my top 30 pitchers from 4 different big categories/by sabermetric. As a value bettor, I'll be looking at ERA-xERA more often than anything else in 2012; however, these other categories produce a group of solid pitchers that shouldn't be denied. For this season or next it might be in your interest to hesitate before wagering against any of these pitchers. For a good deal, and in a spot where the starter plays well; certainly consider a play on. A note: all of the data considers only pitchers who have pitched more than 50 games looking back over the last 10 seasons. It isn't accounting for site or line which is something I will do later. I have also filtered out pitchers who haven not pitched this season. Let's have a look at the top 30 pitchers from each of the four catagories straight out of the database:
OxS = On Base percent times Slugging percent.
On Base Percent (OBP) = ( H + BB + HBP ) / ( AB + BB + HBP +SF)
HBP=Hit by pitch
Slugging percent (SLG) = ( (1B) + (2X 2B) + (3 X 3B) + (4 X HR) ) / (AB)
in other words…
SLG = TB / AB
Note: It should go without saying that a very low OxS for pitchers in a last 50 game sample is a good measurement of talent. Next up, BB:K's…
BB:K Ratio = Walks divided by Strikes
Very simple but an excellent measurement of pitcher control.
WHIP = ( BB + H ) / IP
WHIP (Walks plus hits per inning pitched) is a good way to measure a pitcher's ability to prevent batter from reaching base.
xERA-ERA is a great way to anticipate an underrated pitcher becomming great. There are so many factors that going into sports sabarmetrics analysis so we come up with an expection. There are many reasons a pitcher may not have met these expectations this season, but very often the case it luck. If it is luck based, then poor fielding is the case. Now we get into field independent sports sabermetrics which I will get into later. I think that if you go this deep into a breakdown of the game you're putting too much weight on the starting pitcher…he is not the whole team as much as it may seem! Sometimes the generalized stats are more of what you want unless you are a real shark who knows how to snuff out every ounce of value! Look into fielding independent pitcher statistics if so inclined. FIP and BABIP are great. Anyways…
If you would like to compile a list of these pitchers into one python link email me at firstname.lastname@example.org and I would be happy to help you do that. Very good for you to keep links like that handy in case we forget who is on our big list. It is always interesting to track these things going forward. For strong probability that a system could revolve around only these pitcher in 2012 and be highly profitable!