2011 MLB Pitcher Info as of 9/20

I'm going to give you the top 30 pitchers from 4 different important catagories. For this season or next it might be in your interest to hesitate before wagering against any of these pitchers. For a good deal, and in a spot where the starter plays well; certainly consider a play on. A note: all of the data considers only pitchers who have pitched more than 50 games looking back over the last 10 seasons. I have also filtered out pitchers who haven not pitched this season. Let's have a look at the top 30 pitchers from each of the four catagories straight out of the database:

2011's best starting pitchers

OxS = On Base percent times Slugging percent.

On Base Percent (OBP) = ( H + BB + HBP ) / ( AB + BB + HBP +SF)


HBP=Hit by pitch
AB=At bats
SF=Sacrifice Flies

Slugging percent (SLG) = ( (1B) + (2X 2B) + (3 X 3B) + (4 X HR) ) / (AB)

in other words…



TB=Total Bases
AB=At Bats

Note: It should go without saying that a very low OxS for pitchers in a last 50 game sample is a good measurement of talent. Next up, BB:K's…


BB:K Ratio = Walks divided by Strikes

Very simple but an excellent measurement of pitcher control.


WHIP = ( BB + H ) / IP

WHIP (Walks plus hits per inning pitched) is a good way to measure a pitcher's ability to prevent batter from reaching base. 



xERA-ERA is a great way to anticipate an underrated pitcher becomming great. There are so many factors that going into sports sabarmetrics analysis so we come up with an expection. There are many reasons a pitcher may not have met these expectations this season, but very often the case it luck. If it is luck based, then poor fielding is the case. Now we get into field independent sports sabermetrics which I will get into later. I think that if you go this deep into a breakdown of the game you're putting too much weight on the starting pitcher…he is not the whole team as much as it may seem! Sometimes the generalized stats are more of what you want unless you are a real shark who knows how to snuff out every ounce of value! Look into fielding independent pitcher statistics if so inclined. FIP and BABIP are great. Anyways…



"NFL 12.5.2010

WEEK #13

(2010-2011 Season):

THOUGHTS: Still the year of the DOG, as favorites went 5-10 once again. For the season, the favorites are now 74-93-6 for a win percentage of 44%. Always be aware of what is mainstream public knowledge though. NFL in general regresses to the mean like a sin wave (most things do actually). We have a few interesting picks here for you all. All three unit bets:
[367] Pittsburgh Steelers +3 over the Ravens
[367] Pittsburgh Steelers ML +153 over the Ravens

This is our top play, and we are advising that you split up 2 UNITS on the Point Spread, and 1 UNIT on the nice ML. If you want the security, go ahead, and do all three units on +3 here or even get your hook, but I'm marking down how we'll personally do it.
Everybody is on the Baltimore Ravens who can't score against Tampa…today the Ravens face a much tougher defense. Pittsburgh is great at picking off the pass, and Flacco has had problems with that this year…not many explosive games from him this season… just lots of hard times in the Red Zone for Flacco and company.
The press is full of reports that Ben's foot is broken (he's okay). A lot of people are fading the Steelers here because of their injuries, but if you remember…in the early season the Steelers did great without their boy Ben. This week Ben is playing. On the other side of the fence Baltimore is missing McClain; he is their only Fullback. Chester, the right guard, is out too. Even with some injuries, Pittsburgh is LOADED….oh, did you know: Ben, as an underdog is 13-7 ATS?
Flacco has had a terrible year. It is doubtful that he'll be able to overcome the Pittsburgh blitz…in all fairness to him…I do recall a good sense of focus in one game last year vs. the New England Patriots similar to this one (playoff implications, early lead, didn't blow it). This will probably be a close game where the Steelers squeak by the Ravens by a few points. Here are the margins for their last seven games: 3,3,3,9,4,3,6. Not one double digit between these division rivals. Head to head Baltimore is 2-5 ATS to Pittsburgh as a Home Favorite (and in general Pittsburgh has usually had their number from season to season).
[370] New England Patriots -3.5 over the Jets
This game can be summed up in one word…REVENGE. When you watch Bill Belichick in his nicest sweat shirt, brewing along the sidelines during the game…does he strike you as a guy who might hold a grudge? In week One, the New York Jets beat the Patriots in the big apple 28-14. All week we have heard Rex Ryan in the press saying the Patriots "Have something to worry about". Belichick on the other hand, has told his players to keep their mouth's shut and not talk about the game. Belichick and the Pats are pissed… and will do their talking on the gridiron Monday Night. When he has lost to a divisional rival in the same season, his record in the second get together is a very nice 5-0. Not only are they undefeated in this spot, they have crushed their last three opponents by margins of 31, 20, and 17 points.

Brady sports the sparkling record of 117-38 as a starter, and is 91-61 ATS. Look for the Patriots to make Mark Sanchez's life miserable on Monday and take the smile of the face of Rex Ryan. This game may go to -4 as the sharp money is on New England…So if your playing…Play now.

[365] St. Louis Rams -3.5 over the Cardinals

Note: If you can get the Rams for -3 watch for how much juice you are laying…you may consider dropping this to 2.5 or 2 units if the juice is heavy. If you have plus odds, and you can buy the hook cheap (less than -130) you might want to do that too, but don't go higher than 2 or 2.5 units.


Since the point spread doesn't matter the majority of the time we'll take some nice plus odds for this one. The Cardinals are a drunken, useless, intermission NFL team. The Rams on the other hand aren't under the radar for us…at least not against this shitty team. Take each play for 3 units. "


#908 Cincinnati Reds -1 +100 (3 units) WINNER!

The Reds faced some righties yesterday, and struggled with offense, but still pulled the win to put themselves only a game back of .500. A couple of scenarios where teams have done well: These are backed by numbers, but it is psychological. Cincinatti (65-66 / now -1 game off a win), Chicago White Sox (64-65 / now -1 game off win), and Toronto (66-65 / now +1 game off loss). Not a ton of weight in that, but it's an interesting trick to think about especially now. Where do teams find motivation? .500 when all hope is lost means something (history says so). Anyways, the Reds overcame the righties, now some lefties. They have an offense that is 29% better against lefties. Right now, that would be the biggest variation in the league. Big one here…Go Reds!


Tack on another 2-0 from yesterday to keep the streak going. Let's try to tack on some more, but don't go crazy:
Parlay: Memphis ML with Boston 3.5 point buy to -9.5 WINNER!
+154 (1.95 Units to win 3)
Sacramento just may have had their most emotionally draining loss yesterday against the Wizards, and now they face the Celtics who are due for a big win. Boston doesn't win by large margins though so I wanted this on the key number 10 (9.5). Now, if you can't buy points like this at your book, I'd recommend passing on Boston -13 and doing Memphis on the pointspread for about 1-2 Units. Memphis has fallen to a low, and they've stewed on that for this game of their road trip. I posted up today's leans in NBA on the website: You can see how much of a deciding game this one is going to be for Memphis to continue an upwards season momentum.

[711] San Antonio Spurs -3 over the Milwaukee Bucks (1.5 Units) WINNER!
Spurs just took down the Timberwolve back to back, and it was easier the second time. They are on a roll now to come out of a little slump. Only problem I have here with a play against the Bucks is that they (Bucks) have had the toughest schedule in the NBA. They aren't as bad as they may look. I'm also not sure how I would read an extra day of rest for them with their last game being post poned. Hopefully it doesn't give them the time they would need to keep a nice winning drive alive.
[718] Utah Jazz -6.5 over the New York Knicks (1 Unit) WINNER!
Pinch your nose and take Utah. NY has run hot. B2B game here. They've got to be running dry while Utah really wants this win.



"Picks & Systems" – 9.17.2011
SDQL #002 – 


Current Season Record: 1-0-0 (100%) ATS
(Last Updated 9.20.2011)

Long Term Results: 56-26-0 (68.3%) ATS
(Last Updated 9.20.2011)


Keep this in one in your back pocket. It's based on four parameters, and simple concept: Since 1980, College Football teams that just rolled at least two opponents…both of the wins by at least by 4 TD margin are 56-26-0 (68.3%) ATS when they face a team that just gave up at least 5 TD's worth of points. Type, "and season" to see how this has done recently. It has been hot (up to 87.5% 30+ sample size).

[SDQL LINK]: "A and opo:points>=35 and p:margin>=28 and pp:margin>=28"



[EDIT] Week 3 went 1-0-0 ATS


Read this supplementary article to help you understand the main premise: Evidence of lucrative Momentum


"Picks & Systems" – 9.17.2011
SDQL #001 – 


Current Season Record: 10-9-0 (52.6%) ATS
(Last Updated 9.20.2011)

Long Term Results: 610-470-19 (56.48%) ATS
(Last Updated 9.20.2011)


Since 1980, College Football teams less than -28 points at home are 757-330-6 (69.6%) SU and 608-466-19 (56.6%) ATS when they are off of any home game where they scored at least 41 points (5+ TD's and 2+ FG's). It is hard to stop a moving train in this league! 

[SDQL LINK]: p:points>41 and p:site=home and site=home and line>-28

There are active Week 3 Selections (9/17):


[EDIT] Week 3 went 2-4-0 ATS


Read this supplementary article to help you understand the main premise: Evidence of lucrative Momentum











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