NFL SUPER BOWL SELECTION:
||6:30 PM ET
|| (TOP PLAY)
RAW NUMBER PROJECTED FINAL SCORE:
SEATTLE 28.25 to DENVER 16.65
Adjusted to Common Team Totals and MOV:
SEATTLE 31 DENVER 17
Looks like Vegas is putting this one a half a point to a point off of the most important handle inviting those obvious bets on the Broncos. We’re going to take the sharp side for a much larger amount than is normally done for us in the SuperBowl. Here are a number of reasons to put your money on Seattle tomorrow:
*The biggest matchup advantage we’re seeing in this game is not related to Peyton Manning. I repeat, it has nothing to do with Peyton Manning. The biggest advantage goes to Seattle in a Passing Offense averaging +8.6 Yards Per Pass Attempt vs. Denvers’ Passing Defense giving up -7.1 Yards per attempt. Everyone is busy talking about who or what will win: the Number one Offense or the Number one Defense. This is the biggest issue in my mind. Seattle’s offense is well balanced too of course with Marshawn Lynch; this means big problems on the coaching side trying to guess between rush and play action. Add to this, Denver is missing top pass rusher Von Miller and corner Chris Harris.
****That is a perfect 4-0 if those teams were above .500 team records: CARDINALS, REDSKINS, 49ERS, TEXANS
Next big thought, is each team’s respective Strength of Schedule. Both teams are 15-3 now; however, Seattle has suffered through the 8th most difficult SOS in the NFL while the Broncos have had an arguably EASY year ranking #17 in the league. I like the Seahawk’s 15-3 better than the Bronco’s 15-3
So how does the public feel about this one? No big surprise that with both marquee man Peyton Manning at the helm and a very easy looking -2 spread, over 65% of the public ATS bets are on Denver. Show me a metric where Seattle isn’t the better team. The public still pounded Denver at +1 like a bunch of psychopathic rabid beasts. You’ve got +3 at Bovada by the way. That bet is gold. Getting +2 vs. +2.5 is negligible; however, I think with all of this Broncos action, Vegas might reluctantly put this on +3 late or for a couple minutes. Stay sharp…
Enjoy the game!
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key NFL Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31