NFL CONFERENCE SELECTIONS:
||6:30 PM ET
|| (TOP PLAY)
Sorry for taking so long with this email. I was waiting on something that I think YOU should continue to wait for:
I am thinking that with most (>65%) of the ats public bets on San Francisco, the line might eventually drop to -3 for us on Seattle. The more I think about this though, the more I like the fact that the books are afraid to put this game on the handle and want to just keep taking those Niners bets at a very appealing +3.5 ; I’ve always said: the harder a play seems to be to take, the righter it probably is. So let’s go with this one. Seattle has been the best team in the league all year and we’re getting lots of value because the public is in love with SFO…
Here are some thoughts to add:
*Seattle is a wretched place to come and try to win at. I am not sure how many people realize that there is a huge stadium factor here. Ever notice that most of the great playcallers (Brees, Brady, Manning, Rothlesberger) all seem to fail here? Since 2012, the Seahawks are 16-1 SU (94.1%, +16.41 ppg)
**That is 23-10 ATS since Pete Carroll has been there.
*It is 35-17 ATS (67.3%) and 44-8-0 (84.6%) SU since 2005 when they are Favorited.
This line should be a lot higher based on the fact that this is in Seattle alone….
Last week I posted this *In Colin Kaepernick’s 27 starts against teams who are not the Packers he is below average, gaining only 186.9 passing yards and 30.5 rushing yards.” I’ll stick with that same thought again. The 49ers are overrated right now and have been getting lucky with turnovers and ref calls.
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key NFL Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5