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5-1 On Top Plays – Bills Lost

Top Play Links: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5


Game Score Status Pick Amount
New England 37 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +3 (Top Play) 2.00
Buffalo 22    LOST  
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

In Buffalo (Top Play):
It is amazing how public opinion can shift so darn quickly. Last week people were absolutely crazy. They thought Tom Brady was going to leave New England. Now they get a home win and people are acting like they’re the best team in the world again. Well guess what? They’re not; remember all those problems the Patriots have had this season? They still have them. Last week was highly situational. That was a must win for New England. Before I continue here is a prevailing system that is supporting the raw numbers here:
TOP PLAY SYSTEM: Since 1989, Plus .500 teams off of a win as a home underdog are just 81-137-8 (37.2%) ATS and just 14-34-3 (29.2%) ATS since 2010! 5-16 ATS since 2011 against another plus .500 team. That’s 2-19-1 (9.5%) ATS as small dogs or favorites now (line<2).

Let’s think about that one for a minute. Last week everyone was down on the Patriots. They pull an upset. People might be mistaking a regular home field win for a legit re birthing of the team. This situation is strongest when that last win just put the team above .500 (0-8-1 ATS). Why was the team below .500? No one really asks that question here…but that is exactly what we’re thinking.
Buffalo brings the house now and a different set of skills than the Bengals. They have been able to stop the run with just their four linemen. That makes passing harder now for Brady. Marcell Darius just ripped apart Detroit last week getting 3 sacks and forcing a fumble. Buffalo’s defense is legit holding rushes to 3 yards an attempt or 71.4 yards per game.
Again, we’re going with one of the most lopsided games on the board. Over 80% of the bets are both on the Patriot’s point spread and on their moneyline. This one will probably go to +4 before game time where you will want to strike.
Kyle Orton is a concern, but he’s 1-0 at home vs. New England. He’s been here before. He’s a concern, but a bet is never perfect.
*Since October last season, the Patriots have only been 1-6-0 SU and 0-7-0 (-8.07ppg) ATS on the road off of a win.
Expect some players to be fat and happy off of that home win forgetting that they have some core issues.
*Since 1998, the Bills are 10-0 SU and 10-0 ATS at home off a road win between -3.5 and +3.5.
***The Bills sit at 3-2 with the 7th hardest strength of schedule in the league.
The Bills are definately taking this game seriously against the Patriots while the Pats will probably be thinking about all of the times they’ve beaten Buffalo. The Patriots are 3-2 as well but have had almost a 30% easier schedule. In addition, the Patriots play again on Thursday (in four days from this game). Their thinking about two games right now really…
SYSTEM: Road favorites (on Sunday) going into Thursday games are 5-13-2 (27.8%) ATS and just 10-10 since 1989.


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NHL Raw Numbers 5-1 Yesterday


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5-0 Now on NFL Top Plays…

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Cincinnati 17 8:30 PM ET New England +1 2.00
New England 43    (Top Play) WINNER!


Thoughts: Last week Vegas won big again and we nailed it with the Vikings upset over the Atlanta Falcons. Everyone thought that they had it right with the Falcons off of a high scoring win on that one as the most lopsided bet of the day for the heaviest bet games. Vegas pulled in the most with this one and then raked it in with the Tampa Bay upset and the Dallas upset (maybe a tie with Dallas). A strategy we’ve always liked is looking for teams that lost the public tons and tons of money last week (so New Orleans, Atlanta, Patriots and Pittsburgh) and considering them for next week.
One more note before we get to the meat of things: We’re going to pass on the Vikings on Thursday. They’re a great team and will probably cover the spread tonight; however, the public has driven the line down hard from +10 to +8 with Bridgewater out. If you can’t see how a play on the Vikings stinks then you need a good WHAP! The Packers are in nearly the same situation as our two side bets; that is, they’re an elite team; public currently in doubt about them; at home; great home records; need to get this win or their fans and teammates really all start doubting. The Packers looked like a tasty bet, but I have too much respect for the Vikings. That one is a pass.
In New England (Top Play):
Last week, Tom Brady was humiliated on national MNF live tv in one of his worst games ever. Maybe his worst actually. He threw two interceptions and was sacked and fumbled twice. It was awful. Now under 30% of the bets are on the Patriots as home underdogs. I’ll take that. I subscribe to the theory that great quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers (I know he’s off a win) all pick themselves up after losses or bad performances. Their records show it:
*Career, Drew Brees is 30-17-0 SU and 29-18 ATS off of a loss. That’s 20-5-0 (+12.48 ppg, 80%) SU and 17-8 ATS in the Dome (at home).
**Tom Brady is 45-16-0 (73.%) SU and 40-21-0 (65.6%) ATS after a loss.
****That’s 25-3-0 (+13.39 ppg, 89.3%) SU and 25-3 ATS since 2003 under 9 points favorite or a dog.
*Add to that, the Patriots are 42-7-0 (+11.57 ppg, 85.7%) SU at home since 2009! Why should they ever be dogs if they’re at home and Brady and Belichick are at the wheel? They were only ever underdogs at home once in 2013 against the Broncos and of course they won. They have been small favorites or home dogs just 4 times under a field goal in this era and won every single one of these games (4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS).
*Since November 1st, 2011, the Patriots are 17-1-0 SU and 18-0-0 (+15.36 ppg, 100%) ATS off of a loss not laying more than a field goal. The Patriots are at home off of a loss and they’re .500 right now. They’ve been 5-0 SU (+8 ppg) since 2003 with an average line of -7.5. Everybody is overreacting to how things went for the Patriots last game.
One last thing to think about: The Bengals have had the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL. Those 3 wins don’t look like anything that impressive to me.
Good luck on these three. You can pass on the other two and just take the Patriots if you’d like…..or if you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: 
I considered teasing the Patriots and Saints and well for 6 points….
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
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MLB Playoffs Baltimore Wins

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Detroit 3 5:30 PM ET Baltimore +103 1.00
Baltimore 12    WINNER!
“Alright, we have a full sized regular play on Baltimore for today. I have some solid reasons why you should bet them:
First off, they’re a “Strong” qualifying raw number play. That should say enough in itself…

*Raw number sides are 240-203 +38.35 units this season.*

PLAYOFFS SYSTEM: Since 2005, -110 to -120 small home favs and dogs off of a win are 25-10 (71.4%, +16.78 units, +47.3% roi) SU in the playoffs.
Baltimore beats Detroit in almost every catagory we like to consider. Their pitching is much better (bullpen WHIP per site, bullpen control, starter units earned, starter WHIP and control) and their hitting is slightly better. I’m not really sure what is making Detroit the favorite here. Max Scherzer strikes a lot of guys out; however, there is a fairly large difference between how many total runs each has allowed at their respective site. That bottom line stat is going to be a little bit more important. For us, Baltimore should have been the CLEAR favorite.
*I like a bet on Buck Showalter. He is my favorite manager in MLB. I think everyone has to love what he’s done for the Orioles since he came in 2010 to fix a highly broken team. He has more than succeeded and has also been a bettor’s dream (unless you’ve been betting against the Orioles). Under Buck Showalter, the Orioles are fired up going 72-62 (53.7%, +28.09 units, +19.2% roi) SU after facing 6 or more division opponents straight.
***Chris Tillman is 22-6 SU this season with the total under 9. That’s 10-4 (71.4%, +8.9 units) SU on the road and 12-2 (85.7%, +9.15 units) SU at home.”
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Regular MLB Season Raw Numbers Report

Regular MLB season just ended yesterday. Raw numbers did extremely well. Click here to join us for the playoffs:

Here is a report:


Sides + Totals went 353 – 278 (55.9%) +72.6 Units


All Games Record: 239-203 +37.35 units
Strong Games Record: 13-8 +3.44 units
Med. DIV Gms Record: 10-9 +0.72 units
Med. !DIV Gms Record: 17-8 +7.76 units
Med. INT Gms Record: 2-2 -0.31 units
Basic DIV Gms Record: 106-85 +16.64 units
Basic !DIV Gms Record: 80-73 +2.62 units
Basic INT Gms Record: 23-18 +6.48 units


All Totals Record: 114-75 +35.25 units
All Overs Record: 54-41 +10.95 units
All Unders Record: 60-34 +24.3 units
Strong Overs Record: 6-3 +2.85 units
Med. Overs Record: 13-8 +4.6 units
Basic Overs Record: 35-30 +3.5 units
Strong Unders Record: 5-3 +1.85 units
Med. Unders Record: 9-5 +3.75 units
Basic Unders Record: 46-26 +18.7 units



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4-0 Now on NFL Top Plays Now!

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Atlanta 28 4:25 PM ET Minnesota +3 (Top play) 2.00
Minnesota 41      Vikings ML +135  0.20
Thoughts: We’re 3-0 now on Top plays in NFL and 15-8-1 ATS +9.49 Units for the season with smaller plays cashing in nicely as well. Last week, we made a call that the books would put a lot of “gimme’s” out there after a historically excellent opening to the season in weeks 1 and 2 where they totally robbed the public blind with dogs over 3 points going 14-7-0 ATS (66.7%).
Sure enough, in week three publicly backed heavy Favorites over -5 points on the spread tore it up going 5-0-0 (+22.6 ppg, 100%) SU and 4-1 ATS. This week the books are probably thinking, “okay, that’s enough of that” as they pull away the pacifier. Back to business…
In Minnesota:
First of all, this is our heaviest raw number edge. Here is exactly what the raw numbers are projecting in the ATL / MIN game:
raw: VIKINGS 40.0 – FALCONS 30.4
likely outcome: VIKINGS 41 – FALCONS 31
A pretty clear win for the Vikings. The public doesn’t agree though:
Since back on Sunday, I’ve been watching the public DUMPING their pocketbooks onto the Falcons. Immediately the line went to +2.5 though (smart money it sure looked like) and then back to +3 where it has remained despite the massive action all over the Falcons. People are doubting Teddy Bridgewater starting in this game, but we’ve got some great numbers on him. This will be one of his biggest games in his career.
The public is scared to go against the Falcons right now after they just put up 56 points. Well here are 3 huge reasons to not bet the Falcons this week:
1. The Buccaneers are awful. We already called that one when they lost to our Rams who everyone thinks is bad too. Who cares about a win against them. If anything that will skew a team’s perspective (winning vs. an easy team).
2. The Falcons won their first game against the Saints with a whole lot of luck involved in an OT Saint’s fumble.
3. Matt Ryan at home is 37-10, 76 TD’s, 29 Int and then falls apart 24-25, 81 TDs, 51 Ints on the road career. This season hasn’t been much different losing in Cincinnati 10-24….now another road game.
Let’s talk about the Vikings now.
By the numbers they’ve had the third most difficult schedule so far in the NFL. In our opinion, it has been THE most difficult. Consider what their two losses were:
Week 2 – Lost to New England 7-30 – New England is a top tier team that was on the verge of going 0-2. That doesn’t happen.
Week 3 – Lost to New Orleans 9-20 – The Saints are another top tier team that was on the verge of going 0-3 IN THE DOME. No one wins in this game. I don’t care who the team is. These two losses were some of the most unfortunate I’ve ever seen because the Vikings began each one in such significant morale deficits. Again though, back to business. This game is going to look more like the game where the Vikings smacked the Rams 34-6 in Week 1. Might even be worse….
Some technical stuff:
MEGA SYSTEM: Since 2005, Home teams off of a game scoring under double digits vs. a team that just reeled in a blowout number of points (>28) is 45-17-1 (72.6%) ATS!
If you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: 
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
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3-0 Now on Top NFL Plays of the Week


Sunday, September 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Baltimore 23 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +2 1.00
Cleveland 21    PUSHED
Indianapolis 44 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -6.5 1.00
Jacksonville 17  (Top of Week)     WINNER!

Monday, September 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Chicago +3 1.00
N.Y. Jets -    Pending
6 Pt. Teaser (1 unit) – Official Selection
#456 Philadelphia Eagles PK WINNER!
#467 Indianapolis Colts PK WINNER!

Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

We have two regular bets this week, a Runner Up and A LOT of things that came close and we’re passing on or just betting a lot smaller this week. Cleveland has a lot of the marks of a TOP PLAY for us, but the raw numbers edge isn’t that significant so it is just a runner up / regular play….but I think a decent one. Chicago is a technical play. A lot of the square public is on the Bears with us so we’re just going to keep the marquee game small. Same with Indy who we feel is a True Favorite Runner Up this week.

Thoughts: Things have been funny in Vegas lately. Dogs have lost the books a killing in MLB while they’ve raked money for the books in the first two weeks of NFL. I had a discussion with some sharp gamblers I know after week two on Monday and we have a theory here for week 3: in week one dogs went 11-5-0 ATS and in week 2 dogs went 9-7 ATS for a combined 20-12 (62.5%) ATS! That should have been 21-11 too if the Jags could have covered in week 1 without the backdoor fumble.

What does this mean? Well, Vegas has already damn near bankrupted a lot of square gamblers in just two weeks. Our theory was that this week will feature less traps and there will be more fair lines on true favorites at a minimum as the public needs some sort of gimme. Put yourself in the mind of Vegas: this is going to be the last shot for a lot of gamblers before they throw in the towel completely. The art of booking the NFL season is keeping the bets coming all the way til the end. Our call for this week is…..drum roll….what happens is by and large what the public is going to be expecting.
Here are some thoughts:
System: Since 1992, Sub .500 from last season underdogs with under 2 wins are 136-73-9 (65.1%) ATS playing at a new site.
Active on Runner Up : Cleveland Browns
I’ve always liked betting the Browns (and other teams like the Bills, Jags, Cardinals, Rams, etc.). The public writes these teams off so easily and what we’re usually seeing is hard effort from them….lots of bad beats that end up close. On the other hand, teams are lousy as dogs off of a win as a home dog….the Browns would normally be getting a lot more points here, but they just knocked off the Saints…..still the public is only backing them under 30% of the bets this week which I find shocking….c’mon people; the Browns just beat the Saints. They’re really home dogs here?
In Jacksonville (Runner Up Bet):
Since Week 13 of 2011, the Colts are 13-1 ATS off of a loss. 10-1 ATS and 10-1 SU since 2012. There is no way Andrew Luck and the Colts go to 0-3. This line should be much much higher, but as we theorized before, Vegas wants to throw the public a bone this week (POSSIBLY). The Colts had so many lame penalties called on them last week; they’ll get up for this game and prove that they are worth at least something. Gus Bradley inspires nothing in Jacksonville. I’m glad we went small on them last week. Probably should have just passed. I can’t go too big on Indy though because you always must fear the bottom feeders…
Since 1989, road favorites between -5 and -8 points without wins are 17-9 ATS and 23-3 (88.5%) with a small 6 point teaser.
We’re going to put the Colts in with our top raw number edge: The Philadelphia Eagles.
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Another NFL Top Play Wins!

Sunday, September 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount
St. Louis 19 4:05 PM ET St. Louis +6 (Top Play) 1.50
Tampa Bay 17    WINNER!
Thoughts: Last week we went 2-0 on Official selections (Miami +5 and Oakland +5.5). What I also loved was that the leans I gave out went 4-1 with the Saints being the only loss due to an unlucky fumble in OT vs. Atlanta. If you took them all, you went 6-1 in Week 1.

Still 2-0 in Week 1 is great. Most of the public got hosed as this was a historically excellent week for Vegas. “If the Jaguars would have been able to salt it [the cover] away, it could have been our best day ever,” said Jay Rood, MGM vice president of race and sports. “Giving a little back isn’t a bad thing right now. We don’t want to stick everyone in a corner too much early in the season. Overall, it was a pretty damn good day.”

The biggest game for the books was the Saints vs. Atlanta with the public heavily piled on the Saints who blew it in OT. The Broncos blew a 24-0 lead and the books cleaned up there with the Colts taking the cover. The Browns came back huge against the 7 point favorite Steelers who were leading double digit throughout a major portion of the game; and then of course our Miami Dolphins who were perhaps the upset of the week putting the Patriots in a hole week one. Who saw that one coming? Well….we did and so did the books.

This Week: The public seems to have bucked up a little and is playing things a bit sharper…for example, most of the public is on Jacksonville this week. We’ve got great numbers there, but something stinks about being on what really should be a contrary selection but is not. Our best selection this week appears to be St. Louis for which we have a number of reasons…

This is highly reminiscent of the TJ Yates / Shaub situation a few seasons about in Houston. Reminds us a little of the legend Charlie Batch, taking up the helm of the Steelers team shorthanded Ben Roethlisberger. Teams play 110% by nature in professional sports when all of the public is doubting them and people throw in the towel too early. Less than 25% of the bets are on the Rams this week after losing Sam Bradford. That line is pile driving its way to +7 as we speak.

Usually if we’re touting a Top Play, there is some overreaction involved: the big one in this is that the Rams lost a blowout 34-6 at home vs. the Vikings. Well, a couple of thoughts on that: A. The Vikings are a good team. Don’t forget that they are one of our Top NFL RSW Over futures. B. The Rams lost their QB in the first half vs. this good team. Meanwhile, the Buccs are not at all worth 6 points. They faced a team with a backup QB in week 1 at home and lost, nearly getting shut out. Why are they getting all of these points now? Probably because the score board made it look close.
SYSTEM: Non-Divisional teams that failed to cover the spread by 26 points or more are deemed garbage and too scary of a bet to take next week. They’re 99-60-8 (62.3%) ATS though and 7-4 in Week 2.
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Miami Dolphins – TOP PLAY – Smear Patriots


Posted here:

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Oakland 14 1:00 PM ET Oakland +5.5 WINNER! 1.50
N.Y. Jets 19
New England 20 1:00 PM ET Miami +5 WINNER! 2.00
Miami 33    (Top Play)

Games that came close in order of strength (Seattle, Detroit, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Minnesota).

Of all of those, I would consider Seattle the most as it just fit a slew of technical parameters. Too much of a marquee game though and we have lots of reasons to like Green Bay this season. Definitely worth a unit though if you’re in the mood for a bet tonight.
Those are probably each good for 1 unit, but that is a shakey one unit. Week 1 is never easy and people often tend to go hog wild taking too many plays so we’re going to stick with our two best: Miami and Oakland.
In Miami (TOP PLAY):
Again….”In Miami”…why is it week one and Dolphins are +5 point home underdogs.
The weather is forcasted to spike up to the 90’s with high humidity for this game. The Patriots have struggled in this kind of situation and usually if they did pull the win, they didn’t cover the points.
Over 80% of the public bets are on the spread in this on for New England on the road in week one. No real indication of smart money yet on the Dolphins, but I think they’ll be waiting to strike on this one as it may gain a whole extra point at the rate the public is doubting the Dolphins and over valuing New England. Add to that, Miami’s secondary is looking top notch with Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon who amassed 20 sacks last season.
*Since 1998, the Dolphins are 9-6-1 (60%) ATS at home to the Patriots. Not bad. The Patriots always seem to beat Miami, but Miami went 5-2 (71.4%) ATS last season as underdogs showing some signs of life as a team.
In Oakland:
We have this matchup about even. Definitely not five and a half points. People are all down on Oakland for a number of reasons, but aren’t thinking too much about how the Jets might be thinking about more difficult games ahead. This is too many points. We’re calling it to be close or for Oakland to win straight up.
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
Follow up email:

Take a look at Miami.
They’re at +3.5 now (we got them at 5). Clearly, the sharp money is coming down on the Dolphins with us as the public bets are still mostly on the Patriots.
I have another thought to add to this: Since 1996, week one road teams that finished last season with 12 or more wins are just 14-24-1 (36.8%) ATS. Check out how they did on the moneyline….not good! In addition, (credit to for finding this trend which I really love): Since 2005, Tom Brady is 0-12-0 ATS vs. the AFC in a rematch where he had previously completed less than 70%, but racked up OVER 280 yards line -4 or less. Again, thanks to Killersports on that nugget of gold which I’m just seeing now after making this selection.
This play stinks I know it…nobody likes taking the Miami Dolphins against the Patriots, but I’m all over them here in week 1. Considering adding something small like 0.25 units risked on the Dolphins money-line if it comes back to where it was at the open before game time. Usually we don’t want to overreact to additional plus factors after placing a wager. If you got the Dolphins in at a good price just leave it and enjoy the game.
Best regards,
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3-1 Yesterday in MLB

Daily pick record for 09/02/2014

Sport Game Score Pick Amount Result Units
MLB Pittsburgh 4 Over 7 1.20 WON +100
St. Louis 6
MLB Cincinnati 4 Cincinnati +129 1.20 LOST -1.20
Baltimore 5
MLB Milwaukee 1 Chi. Cubs +104 1.20 WON +1.28
Chi. Cubs 7
MLB Philadelphia 4 Philadelphia +159 1.00 WON +1.59
Atlanta 0


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