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2-0 +2.93 Units Yesterday

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Game Score Status Pick Amount
Chi. White Sox 4 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +103 1.20
Baltimore 6
Pittsburgh 8 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +141 1.20
Tampa Bay 1
*In the years with Clint Hurdle, the Pirates have been excellent in Junes going 62-38 +31.19 units and quite good in the surrounding months. It seems that the pattern is, take a month to get into gear, rock it and then tank. So we’re sort of in that low pressure part of the season where the Pirates have thrived. Raw numbers love them today. Let’s see if they can go a little further this year.
*Under Buck Showalter, the Orioles are 16-7 (69.6%, +11.6 units, +44.5% roi) SU after two straight games allowing 1 run or less.
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Another Sweep!

Game Score Status Pick Amount
San Diego 1 3:40 PM ET Under 7.5 1.00
Seattle 6
Baltimore 7 7:10 PM ET Baltimore +103 1.00
Tampa Bay 5

*Raw number totals are now 74-36 +36.2 units this season*

**The Rays are just 6-17 SU (-15.76 units, +58.8% roi to fade) this season after 2+ straight games with 0 errors.
*Something I like about that trend is the logical fact that the OVER is 16-6 in this situation: so we have the theory that the Rays are due for errors in this game. Roughly 30-40% more than the opponent. This will be conducive to a loss and/or a high scoring affair.
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Big Easy Winner on Top Play

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Minnesota 0 7:10 PM ET Under 9.5 1.50
Boston 1    (Top Play)
Everything adds up on this one:
*Raw total numbers are 73-36 +35.2 units this season*
*Raw Unders are 33-13 +19.35 units this season. Under 9 or 9.5 are 11-2 combined!
I think that there is some psychology there with 9 and 9.5 being good spots. Today Over 85% of the public bets are on the Over here. I think that the public sees 9.5 and 9 and thinks that the inherent advantage is the Over at double digits is the key mark. The key mark though in all of MLB is 9! So 9.5 has inherent value for the Under. Sharp money on the under here too. With everyone slamming the Over, why isn’t the total going up or getting plus odds?
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3-0 Sweep Today

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Minnesota WINNER! 4:08 PM ET Over 8 1.20
Detroit -
San Diego WINNER! 4:10 PM ET Under 7.5 1.20
NY Mets -
Washington WINNER! 7:15 PM ET St. Louis +124 1.20
St. Louis -
***Raw number totals are 71-34 +35.3 units.
Strong overs are 5-1 +3.95 units and Regular Unders are 23-7 +15.65 units.
Interesting set up in St. Louis.
*SYSTEM: Since  2009, Home plus .500 dogs facing a plus .500 team seeking revenge for a shut out are 32-18 (+19.75 units, +39.5% roi) SU.
The public loves betting for revenge to occur in baseball, and they usually will double up on it or something. The books love letting them think that they have a 99.9% win record on martingale savoring the one little screw up that loses them their whole roll. Maybe you know the betting systems I’m talking about….be on the opposite side of that stuff at all times.
Sharp money clearly on the Cardinals as well.
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Another Winner…

Game Score Status Pick Amount
NY Mets 11 7:05 PM ET NY Mets -1 +126 1.25
Philadelphia 2    (Top Play)
Bartolo Colon is 15-4 SU (+14.17 units, +73% roi) on the road since 2012 in night games.
The Mets are 61-57 (56.8%, +24.28 units, +19.1 roi) SU under Terry Collins on the road vs. sub .500 opponents.
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The Insanity Continues…

Game Result Status Pick Amount
NY Mets Winner! 1:35 PM ET NY Mets +121 1.00
Philadelphia -
Baltimore Winner! 2:10 PM ET Baltimore -111 1.00
Houston -
The Mets go off soon. Short email today for timeliness sake. These are two quality raw number wagers.
Best of luck!

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Awesome End to the Month +612.41 Units

Game Result Status Pick Amount
NY Mets Winner! 3:05 PM ET NY Mets +102 1.25
Philadelphia -
Baltimore Winner! 4:10 PM ET Baltimore +116 1.00
Houston -
Top play:
***Under Terry Collins, the Mets are 42-29 (59.2%, +24.3 units, +32.6% roi) SU on the road off of a 1 or 2 run loss.
I wouldn’t go too big on this one because it looks like some of the value got away from us. Public moved the line, but the books aren’t making the Mets favorites yet so I like it still, but not as much as back at +115.
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Another Sweep

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Pittsburgh WINNER! 1:10 PM ET Pittsburgh -1 +121 1.50
NY Mets -    (Top Play)
Miami WINNER! 1:35 PM ET Miami +122 1.00
Washington -
***Since 2013, the Mets are just 22-45 -28.69 units at home after allowing 4 runs or less.
That’s 12-23 (34.3%, -15.54, +32.5% to fade) SU after allowing 2 runs or less.
***The Pirates are 50-28 (64.1%, +21.22 units, +22.7% roi) SU since 2013 after scoring 2 runs or fewer last game.
Perfect set up.
Regular one on Miami.
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Unique 3-0-1 Day With Writeups…

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Oakland WINNER! 1:07 PM ET Under 9.5 1.20
Toronto -
Arizona PUSH 1:10 PM ET Arizona -1 +122 1.00
NY Mets -
Houston WINNER! 4:10 PM ET Houston +130 1.20
Seattle -

Three excellent raw number plays.

Some sharper money coming in on Houston with less of the public bet percents and a little comedown from +135 to +130.
**Since 2013, the Seattle Mariners are a nasty 13-24 (35.1%, -22.39 units, +53.9% roi to fade) SU as home favorites between -125 and -175.
*Career JA Happ is 27-13-1 UNDER the total at home where the line is between 8 and 10.
**That’s 9-0  in the last two seasons.
The value for today seems to clearly be with OKC as the team favored by the raw numbers and getting less than 35% of the public spread bets as playoff home dogs.
The matchup is incredibly marquee though; take OKC though if you play anything in this matchup.
Value on Montreal. Might be good for a small play, but passing.
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Indiana WINNER! 6:00 PM ET Indiana +8 1.00
Atlanta -
Less than 15% of the bets are on Indiana right now.
*Atlanta is just 4-15 ATS after 1+ straight loss since 2013.
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