This has top play written all over it. Good luck on this one. You should be able to get good odds on this one too. Sending early so you can get the best line…
||9:30 PM ET
||San Antonio -7 -105
|| (TOP PLAY)
**Home Playoffs Favorites between -4 and -7.5 revenging a no cover road loss are SU:30-4 (9.21, 88.2%) ATS:25-9-0 (3.66, 73.5%) as long as it is just a one game losing streak. The Spurs lost 87-97 as small road favorites last in the get-away spot; however, won 102-92 as 2 point road dogs at Golden State the game before.
It seems that in the short history of matchups between the Spurs and the Warriors, as far as spread is concerned, each team is regressing after a game of negative DPS and positive or marginal DPA. DPS and DPA are explained well here https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/sportsdatabase/tSQYhtn49zg
and they are excellent ways to look for good public fade set ups or just good ways to quantify “Due.”
Usually I won’t base a play too heavily on the theory of due unless the public is against my team, and right now Joe Public doesn’t want any part of San Antonio putting over 70% of their bets both on the point spread and the moneyline for the road dog!
-In the playoffs, that system is SU:35-8 (10.35, 81.4%) ATS:31-12-0 (4.45, 72.1%)
! SU:27-5 (11.44, 84.4%) and ATS:25-7-0 (5.45, 78.1%) since 2004
*Since 2010, the San Antonio Spurs are SU: 34-8 (7.90, 81.0%) and ATS:27-14-1 (2.96, 65.9%) revenging an upset loss as favorites. That’s 4-2 ATS in the playoffs.
*Since 2011, the Spurs are SU: 43-16 (6.39, 72.9%) and ATS: 37-21-1 (1.86, 63.8%) against .500 to .600 (marginally good) teams. That’s 11-5 ATS in the playoffs.