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TOP PLAY SEAHAWKS HUGE BLOWOUT

NFL SUPER BOWL SELECTION:
NFL DAILY RAW NUMBERS

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Seattle 43 6:30 PM ET Seattle +2.5 2.00
Denver 8    (TOP PLAY)

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TOP PLAY SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +2.5…

NFL SUPER BOWL SELECTION:
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Seattle Pending… 6:30 PM ET Seattle +2.5 2.00
Denver -    (TOP PLAY)

RAW NUMBER PROJECTED FINAL SCORE:
SEATTLE 28.25 to DENVER 16.65

Adjusted to Common Team Totals and MOV:
SEATTLE 31 DENVER 17

Looks like Vegas is putting this one a half a point to a point off of the most important handle inviting those obvious bets on the Broncos. We’re going to take the sharp side for a much larger amount than is normally done for us in the SuperBowl. Here are a number of reasons to put your money on Seattle tomorrow:
*The biggest matchup advantage we’re seeing in this game is not related to Peyton Manning. I repeat, it has nothing to do with Peyton Manning. The biggest advantage goes to Seattle in a Passing Offense averaging +8.6 Yards Per Pass Attempt vs. Denvers’ Passing Defense giving up -7.1 Yards per attempt. Everyone is busy talking about who or what will win: the Number one Offense or the Number one Defense. This is the biggest issue in my mind. Seattle’s offense is well balanced too of course with Marshawn Lynch; this means big problems on the coaching side trying to guess between rush and play action. Add to this, Denver is missing top pass rusher Von Miller and corner Chris Harris.
***The Seahawks are 15-4-0 SU (+11.26 ppg, 78.9%) and 15-4-0 ATS under head coach Pete Carroll when facing poor defenses averaging over 24 ppg allowed on the season.
****That is a perfect 4-0 if those teams were above .500 team records: CARDINALS, REDSKINS, 49ERS, TEXANS
(Pete Carroll is 16-5-1 ATS since 2011 with the Seahawks against plus .500 teams)
Next big thought, is each team’s respective Strength of Schedule. Both teams are 15-3 now; however, Seattle has suffered through the 8th most difficult SOS in the NFL while the Broncos have had an arguably EASY year ranking #17 in the league. I like the Seahawk’s 15-3 better than the Bronco’s 15-3
So how does the public feel about this one? No big surprise that with both marquee man Peyton Manning at the helm and a very easy looking -2 spread, over 65% of the public ATS bets are on Denver. Show me a metric where Seattle isn’t the better team. The public still pounded Denver at +1 like a bunch of psychopathic rabid beasts. You’ve got +3 at Bovada by the way. That bet is gold. Getting +2 vs. +2.5 is negligible; however, I think with all of this Broncos action, Vegas might reluctantly put this on +3 late or for a couple minutes. Stay sharp…
Enjoy the game!
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key NFL Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 414, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
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NFL is 53-24-1 +39.15 units 68.8% – Get the Super Bowl Pick!

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This includes one whole months of all sports as well!

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Another 2-0 Day!

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Bowling Green Winner! 7:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan -7 1.00
Eastern Michigan -
Portland Winner! 10:00 PM ET San Francisco -5 1.00
San Francisco -
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2-0 Yesterday +577.79 Units Now

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Boston Winner! 7:30 PM ET New York -6 1.00
New York -
**Boston is just 2-15 SU (-11.12 ppg, 11.8%) since 2012 on the road after failing to cover the spread twice in a row.
Game Result Status Pick Amount
Nashville Winner! 8:00 PM ET Nashville +128 0.50
Winnipeg -
*Let than 10% of the publics’ bets are on Nashville. We have them winning this one straight up. This is a blind profitable situation.
Key injury at goalie though. Looks like this season that has meant quite a bit. Traditionally I don’t care. I’m reducing the bet size on this one.
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2-0 Yesterday +576.15 Units Now!

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Orlando Winner! 6:00 PM ET New Orleans -6.5 1.00
New Orleans -
Brooklyn Winner! 6:30 PM ET Brooklyn -4 1.00
Boston -

*Since 2012, Orlando is just 20-39 SU and 21-35 ATS when facing sub .500 teams.

*Jason Kidd and the Brooklyn Nets had an awful season, but are now 9-1 in January.
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2-0 +2.0% Yesterday

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Toronto WINNER! 7:00 PM ET Toronto -6 1.00
Philadelphia -
Dallas WINNER! 7:30 PM ET Dallas +2 1.00
Brooklyn -
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3-0-1 +3.9 Units Yesterday

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Chicago WINNER 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +122 1.20
Minnesota -
 
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Southern Miss WINNER 7:00 PM ET Southern Miss -5 1.20
Old Dominion -
Montana WINNER 9:05 PM ET Montana +0 1.20
Idaho State -
Cal Poly SLO Push 10:00 PM ET Cal Poly SLO -2 1.20
Cal St. Fullerton -
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TOP NFL PLAY WINS BIG!! +$400.00

NFL CONFERENCE SELECTIONS:

Game Result Status Pick Amount
San Francisco WINNER!!! 6:30 PM ET Seattle -3.5 2.00
Seattle -    (TOP PLAY)
Sorry for taking so long with this email. I was waiting on something that I think YOU should continue to wait for:
I am thinking that with most (>65%) of the ats public bets on San Francisco, the line might eventually drop to -3 for us on Seattle. The more I think about this though, the more I like the fact that the books are afraid to put this game on the handle and want to just keep taking those Niners bets at a very appealing +3.5 ; I’ve always said: the harder a play seems to be to take, the righter it probably is. So let’s go with this one. Seattle has been the best team in the league all year and we’re getting lots of value because the public is in love with SFO…
Here are some thoughts to add:
In Seattle:
*Seattle is a wretched place to come and try to win at. I am not sure how many people realize that there is a huge stadium factor here. Ever notice that most of the great playcallers (Brees, Brady, Manning, Rothlesberger) all seem to fail here? Since 2012, the Seahawks are 16-1 SU (94.1%, +16.41 ppg) at home!
**That is 23-10 ATS since Pete Carroll has been there.
*It is 35-17 ATS (67.3%) and 44-8-0 (84.6%) SU since 2005 when they are Favorited.
This line should be a lot higher based on the fact that this is in Seattle alone….
Last week I posted this *In Colin Kaepernick’s 27 starts against teams who are not the Packers he is below average, gaining only 186.9 passing yards and 30.5 rushing yards.” I’ll stick with that same thought again. The 49ers are overrated right now and have been getting lucky with turnovers and ref calls.
*Since 2009, teams that have gone two or more straight games without turnovers are 87-42-0 (67.4%) SU and 78-46-5 ATS.
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key NFL Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 414, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
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Nice Hit in the NHL…

Game Result Status Pick Amount
Montreal WINNER 7:30 PM ET Montreal +110 1.50
Ottawa -
**The Senators are just 4-12 (25%, -12.42 units, +69.7% roi to fade) SU as minus 170 home favorites.
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