NFL 2014 WEEK THREE RAW NUMBERS
Sunday, September 21
||1:00 PM ET
||1:00 PM ET
|| (Top of Week)
Monday, September 22
||8:30 PM ET
6 Pt. Teaser (1 unit) – Official Selection
#456 Philadelphia Eagles PK WINNER!
#467 Indianapolis Colts PK WINNER!
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
We have two regular bets this week, a Runner Up and A LOT of things that came close and we’re passing on or just betting a lot smaller this week. Cleveland has a lot of the marks of a TOP PLAY for us, but the raw numbers edge isn’t that significant so it is just a runner up / regular play….but I think a decent one. Chicago is a technical play. A lot of the square public is on the Bears with us so we’re just going to keep the marquee game small. Same with Indy who we feel is a True Favorite Runner Up this week.
Thoughts: Things have been funny in Vegas lately. Dogs have lost the books a killing in MLB while they’ve raked money for the books in the first two weeks of NFL. I had a discussion with some sharp gamblers I know after week two on Monday and we have a theory here for week 3: in week one dogs went 11-5-0 ATS and in week 2 dogs went 9-7 ATS for a combined 20-12 (62.5%) ATS! That should have been 21-11 too if the Jags could have covered in week 1 without the backdoor fumble.
What does this mean? Well, Vegas has already damn near bankrupted a lot of square gamblers in just two weeks. Our theory was that this week will feature less traps and there will be more fair lines on true favorites at a minimum as the public needs some sort of gimme. Put yourself in the mind of Vegas: this is going to be the last shot for a lot of gamblers before they throw in the towel completely. The art of booking the NFL season is keeping the bets coming all the way til the end. Our call for this week is…..drum roll….what happens is by and large what the public is going to be expecting.
Here are some thoughts:
Since 1992, Sub .500 from last season underdogs with under 2 wins are 136-73-9 (65.1%) ATS
playing at a new site.
Active on Runner Up : Cleveland Browns
I’ve always liked betting the Browns (and other teams like the Bills, Jags, Cardinals, Rams, etc.). The public writes these teams off so easily and what we’re usually seeing is hard effort from them….lots of bad beats that end up close. On the other hand, teams are lousy as dogs off of a win as a home dog….the Browns would normally be getting a lot more points here, but they just knocked off the Saints…..still the public is only backing them under 30% of the bets this week which I find shocking….c’mon people; the Browns just beat the Saints. They’re really home dogs here?
In Jacksonville (Runner Up Bet):
Since Week 13 of 2011, the Colts are 13-1 ATS off of a loss. 10-1 ATS and 10-1 SU since 2012. There is no way Andrew Luck and the Colts go to 0-3. This line should be much much higher, but as we theorized before, Vegas wants to throw the public a bone this week (POSSIBLY). The Colts had so many lame penalties called on them last week; they’ll get up for this game and prove that they are worth at least something. Gus Bradley inspires nothing in Jacksonville. I’m glad we went small on them last week. Probably should have just passed. I can’t go too big on Indy though because you always must fear the bottom feeders…
Since 1989, road favorites between -5 and -8 points without wins are 17-9 ATS and 23-3 (88.5%) with a small 6 point teaser.
We’re going to put the Colts in with our top raw number edge: The Philadelphia Eagles.