|Game ||Score ||Status ||Pick ||Amount |
|Baltimore ||28 ||6:30 PM ET ||**Baltimore +8.5 ||1.50 |
|New England ||13 || || WINNER! || |
Last week the Patriot nailed the Texans to the wall 41-28 ; a pure ass whooping. Now they have a super inflated playoff line against an inspired team off of a win over the Denver Broncos. Playoff teams off of home wins where 62 or more total points were scored follow up the next week just 6-16 SU 5-16 ATS. That suggests a play on both Baltimore and Atlanta this weekend.
This week we have a rematch of last year’s AFC championship game where New England pulled a very lucky win due to a Baltimore missed field goal. So they’ve already proven that (if luck goes their way) they can do this let alone keep it close which is all we need here. THIS season the Ravens won 31-30 over the Patriots in week 3. Since 2008, home favorites revenging a loss where they’re off of two or more wins and covers as favorites are just 8-20 ATS (18-10 SU)
-With TE Rob Gronkowski out this game becomes more of an even matchup.
-The main reason this is only a runner up play and not a top play is because I don’t like to bet against Bill Belichick seeking revenge: he’s 44-24-2 ATS
with the Patriots in this spot. I think at this point a lot of bettors are thinking about this though so it is important to see that the average margin was less than what this spread is.
*Since 2003, road teams play a consecutive road game get undervalued: they’re 416-315-17 (56.9%) ATS. That is 284-207-11 (57.8%) ATS
if they’re an underdog.
and finally, we’ll keep plugging away at what we won with last week:
*The Ravens are better at pressuring the quarterback. Since 2004, in the playoffs, teams averaging more sacks that the other team are 62-46-1 ATS (57.4%). If that differential is > 0.2 then it is 52-34-0 ATS