NCAAF Week 10: November 2-5 PART I
Thoughts: If you like the favorite, get it fast. If you like the dog wait. That's usually how it goes…and all the while, be aware of key numbers to snuff out traps and such. I have here my key numbers for CFB (I've posted this before…and remember that they differ from sport to sport):
Key Margins of victory in College Football (from most significant by occurrence to least): 3, 7, 10, 14, 17, 4, 21, 2, 1, 6, 24, 5, 8, 11, 28 , 20
Key Final Scores in College Football (from most significant by occurrence to least): 51, 41, 59, 45, 52, 48, 55, 44, 58, 37, 47, 38, 49, 65, 54, 62, 34, 61, 66, 30, 63, 31
Also Notice: There are a lot of numbers missing. That is because they (the ones not listed) aren't truly significant…and don't for: these numbers vary by sport!
Favorites come up more than dogs this week so I'm striking earlier than later:
#354 Oklahoma -13.5 (3 units) WINNER!
over Texas A&M
Projected: Cover by 8.4 points
Projected Final Score: 39-21
Sherman is 0-7 ATS against teams winning more than 75% of their games and on the road as the coach of Texas A&M.
Stoops is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Oklahoma.
-13.5 always smells funny to me, but this one checks in well, and I say Oklahoma keeps rolling now. This line should move quick; if it doesn't maybe you should worry, but I'm going to grab it. Have a look at this one. In Bob Stoop's career with Oklahoma he is a killer 13-1 ATS home favorite IF he did lose 1 or more game in that season AND the season is still young (defined by "10>wins>5"
). The average line in those games was -18.6 and the only one that didn't cover was big time lumber, and a sort of breather game (line was -37). Stoops team won those games by an average of 33.3 points and never won one by less than double digits. I'll back that. Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS and 7-1 SU at home against TEXAS A&M in the last 10 seasons. Texas A&M
#376 Oregon State +21.5 (3 units) LOST – Late Stanford Cover (ATSm -3.5)
Projected: Cover by 8 points
Projected Final Score: 26 to 34
Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points if it's a conference games, with 8 or more starters returning has been 76-26 ATS.
Undefeated team with suspect defense allowing 21 or more points per game (prev. email)..
Oregon St. is 12-6 ATS versus Stanford since 1992 and 7-2 ATS when it is Stanford at home.
Oregon St. Coach Riley is 45-24 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games.
Shaw is uncharted territory, but he's basically a new head coach on roids a little overrated now for some lumber. After the 48-7 blowout putting Stanford at 5-0 this year he's loosened the belt a bit it seems (allowed 14,21, and 48 points in the last three where they are now 8-0). Now gets -21 points to cover against a team that has had a more difficult schedule, and has only allowed a greater than 20 point margin 4 times out of 20 in the last two seasons. Mike Riley was 8-5 in his first season, and should know how exploitable Stanford could be here (similar situation as Riley's 7th and 8th games of his first season which he started off well). Riley is 13-7 ATS (13-7 SU) off of a loss of more than two touchdowns; 8-3 ats if he only put up less than 14 points and he's 3-1 ATS (+13.1) as a double digit home dog
#381 Houston -27.5 (2.5 units) WINNER!
Projected: Cover by 9.5 points
Projected Final Score: 47-10
Note: Possible key number misconception trap at +27.5. 28 is the big key here, and is often confused (so it seems). -27.5 is good here (refer to key numbers above). UAB looks terrible now with their QB out for the season
losing their last in a slop fest 14-59 to Marshall. Houston is off of a record setting achievement, and they could use . Ride the momentum on this on. I think the trap is in taking the dog…when the line has moved from 27 to 28 the road favorite has been 6-2 ATS over the home dog in the last ten seasons. The situation is not the norm, but if you're taking this one watch out for a -28.5 line which it could move to later…although this sort of lumber really doesn't attract many people. I called another Houston stampede here. Sumlin is Houston Coach Kevin Sumlin is 8-0 when the line is larger than -20 ringing up and average: 41.4 point win
. Undefeated 8-0 teams playing beaten 1 or no win teams are 6-3 against the big lumber (-27 or higher).
#362 Washington +17* (3 units) PUSH – One missed shoulda been coulda been reception in the endzone.
Projected: Cover by 9.5 points
Projected Final Score: 41-34 (Oregon)
Notes: The betting public is right only about 42% of the time when moving the line from -14.5 to -16.5. I think that this one is great where it stands, but it doesn't hurt to WAIT for +17. Look at my numbers again. A statistically high occurance for the 17 point MOV. It has already been rolling though from +14, and this would be when a lot of the sharp money begins to bite. Washington seems perfectly healthy unless I'm missing something while Oregon is relatively stacked, but with their key running back Lamichael James returning. Referring to that last situation with Houston, 75% or greater teams facing a team that is NOT defeated is no good vs. the points. In the last ten seasons -17 to -14 high scoring back to back away favorites (21 or more points in their last two which were wins) have been suspect to let down. They have been only 29-45 -4.9 ATS (60.8%) fades. I am personally going to snatch +17 now with a hook buy, but you might consider chancing it to move to +17 from +16.5.
#378 Oklahoma State -20* (1.5 units) LOSE
over Kansas St.
Projected: Cover by 5.5 points
Projected Final Score: 51-25
Oklahoma St. is 19-2 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992. Under Mike Gundy they are 12-1 ATS as home favorites -7 or greater off of a win where they put up more than 28 points. I'm buying a hook to 20 which is somewhat key, but I think important here, and going with an over projection of 74.5 points teased:
For the over get 62 or less, and for the spread get -14 or better….