NFL Trends

#001 Since 2005, Road teams that haven’t made the playoffs in 3+ years off of a road loss are 28-13-1 (68.3%) ATS.

#002 The League is 61-29 SU and 56-29-5 (65.9%) ATS since 2009 in this same situation when on the road for between +4 and -4 points.

#003 Since 1990, home favorites in week one are 40-16-5 (+5.69 ppg, 71.4%) ATS if they are facing a team who had a betting win record last season than they did. Since 2001, that is 30-7 SU and 27-8 (+5.2 ppg, 77.1%) ATS [avg. line -3.5] (same conditions).

#004 Since 2002, Favorites off of 2+ straight games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 180-52-1 (+7.8 ppg, 77.6%) SU.

#005 After week 3, a team facing a plus .500 team off of a win as a home dog is 118-59-4 ATS (66.7%)

#006 Since 2009, a team off of a game with <=5.5 YPPA against team with >=8 YPPA is just 13-43 (23.2%) SU and 22-33 ATS

#007 After week 14, teams averaging 11+ ppg are just 43-80 ATS (35%)

#008 Overreaction to high scoring win. 2-16 ATS

#009 *After week 9 fade a team that just played as a dog, got at least 7 first downs and at least one third down completion. 

#010 Since 2004, the home +3 dog to -3 favorite off of a loss is just 30-61-5 (-3.4 ppg) ATS in November games.

#011 Since 2003 and in the first two months of NFL, Road teams that finished last season terribly are an absolutely horrid SU: 27-104-0 (20.6%, -9.24 ppg). -They finished last season below 25% (team record) and finished the season off of at least three straight losses. This is similar to the Super Bowl Loser System (17-32.2 ATS [65.3% fade]) where you have a team that let themselves down majorly in the previous season and possibly spent too much time stewing on it in the off season. They come out stale.

#012 After week 3, a team facing a plus .500 team off of a win as a home dog is 118-59-4 ATS (66.7%)

#013 Since 1994, Road Teams that just won an upset as a home underdog are just 113-283 (71.5% fade, 60+ units fade) SU and 156-228-12 ATS (59.4%).

#014 Two teams on normal 6 day read; take Road dog 12.5 or smaller off road dog loss of no more than 23 points and with a normal turnover margin: 90-32-2 (73.8%) ATS / SU: 59-72-0 (-1.72, 45.0%)

#015 Home Favorites are 11-1 ATS (+8.7 ppg) and 12-0-0 (+16.2 ppg) SU on Thanksgiving since 2004.

#016 Since 2004, favorites off of a bye week are 126-42 (75%) SU and 105-61-3 ATS. Pure and simple! 

#017 Since 2003, +/- 3 point second half of the season road teams off of a 2 or more game losing streak are 116-85 SU and 113-79 ATS.

#018 Since 1989, road teams off of tight fewer than 6 pt. road losses are a massive 62-22-0 against the spread (73.8%) if they’re seeking revenge in this game (eliminating small favorites and late season games).

#019 All NFL road teams (<14 pts) seeking same season revenge since 2000 are 42-15-1 ATS (73.7 %) off of a road loss.

#020 Since 2003, Road Underdogs off of a road loss are 180-114-3 (61.2%) ATS. ***That is 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS (+5.1 ppg, 90.0%) if the team is between -3 and +3 and it is still the first month of the season.  

#021 ML SYSTEM: The League is 62-32-0 SU and 57-32-5 (64%) ATS since 2009 in this same situation when on the road for between +4 and -4 points.

#022 Since 1999 and in the first month of NFL regular season, Home Teams off of a home loss are a solid 39-19-0 (+5.74 ppg, 67.2%) SU and 35-22 ATS.

#023 Since 1989, five pt. dogs to favorites (< +5.5) are 221-139-11 (61.4%) ATS in the last couple weeks of regular season when facing opponents with a greater team win percent.

#024 Since 1991, three points plus road dogs off of seven or more straight losses are 47-19-2 ATS (71.2%).

#025  A road team off of a road game in a conference matchup is 45-14-2 ATS after each team scored 24+ points.

#026 Since 2011, a team off of a game with 1 or 0 turnovers is 146-80-1 SU against a team with a turnover margin of 2 or more last game.

#027 Since 2011, a team off of a game with 1 or 0 turnovers is 146-80-1 SU against a team with a turnover margin of 2 or more last game.

#028 Since 1990, sub .500 road teams of +3 to -3 off of a road loss are 82-48-4 ATS (63.1%). That’s 32-9-1 (78%) ATS since 2007!

#029  Since 2010, teams that just played the Seahawks are 24-50-4 32.4% ATS next week.

#030 Since 2003, teams get undervalued if they play two consecutive road games in the second one (or more): going 471-359-20 (56.7%) ATS. That is a huge thing to pinwheel selections off of or use as a filter.

#031 Since 1990, road dogs off of a 1 point loss on the road are 15-15 SU and 20-10-0 (66.7%) ATS.

#032 Since 1989, +4 to -4 pt. Home teams that just allowed over 28 points last game are just 31-57-4 (35.2%) ATS in the following week against teams off close losses (1,2 or 3 points).

#033 Since 2008, home favorites revenging a loss where they’re off of two or more wins and covers as favorites are just 8-20 ATS (18-10 SU).   

#034 Since 2003, road teams play a consecutive road game get undervalued: they’re 416-315-17 (56.9%) ATS. That is 284-207-11 (57.8%) ATS if they’re an underdog.