NCAA Betting Trends: Understanding Undervalued Teams

CBB RAW NUMBERS

GameScoreStatusPickAmount
Cornell517:00 PM ETCornell +101.00
Yale62   One point loss

Since 2006, bad offenses (ppg < 1 stdev from median) are 455-298-14 (60.4%) ATS as big, undervalued road dogs.

PENNSYLVANIA +15.5 and COLUMBIA -1 both come very close.
I might put down a little on the side with these later depending on how lines move…

Cornell is mostly a technical play, but my two cents is that the line is too high….linesmakers know how the public would react to a 21 points loss….but it was on the road and Courtney (head coach of Cornell) is in a “spot” here now.
A couple of areas that I could see Yale struggling or slacking with will be in their rebounding ability and their ability to create turnovers / takeaways against Cornell thus leading to a closer game than 10 points. Sprinkle in a little predicted motivation that Cornell might have….we’re buying at a valued low here and selling off high. Similar things with Penn and Columbia…

NHL RAW NUMBERS

GameScoreStatusPickAmount
Colorado (W)48:30 PM ETColorado +2051.00
Chicago1   WINNER!

Balls to the wall. +205 on Colorado. 32% implied odds of this bet winning by
Vegas and raw numbers say it is better than +50% chance that ‘Rado takes the cake.

That’s a hell of an edge…
*NHL Raw Numbers (Basics) are 135-70 +38.62 Units*

In Database history, non weekend road dogs are 262-251 +115.27 units SU in Feb.
This system is up +10.07 units this season.

NBA RAW NUMBERS

GameScoreStatusPickAmount
Chicago917:30 PM ETDetroit +61.00
Detroit (W)100   WINNER!
Cleveland (W)1278:00 PM ETCleveland -31.00
Washington89   WINNER!
Brooklyn (W)11410:30 PMBrooklyn -31.00
L.A. Lakers105   WINNER!

Since 1995, very well rested teams off of a home loss are 150-103 (59.3%, plus over 55 units) SU and 149-100-4 ATS.
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Since 2003, team between +2 and -13.5 points (small dogs or favs) that last played on the road are 43-16 ATS in the first game after all star break.
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Since 2009, teams that just lost in an upset as a favorite to a divisional opponent are 127-73-6 (63.5%) ATS and 146-60 (70.9%) SU when facing a team seeking revenge for a loss in their previous matchup.
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Raw numbers on the three.

Best of luck guys,
PCG