NFL Week 5 Predictions: Why Bet on the Patriots?

NFL 2014 WEEK FIVE RAW NUMBERS
Posted here:  https://www.procomputergambler.com/raw-numbers/nfl/ 

 
Thoughts: Last week Vegas won big again and we nailed it with the Vikings upset over the Atlanta Falcons. Everyone thought that they had it right with the Falcons off of a high scoring win on that one as the most lopsided bet of the day for the heaviest bet games. Vegas pulled in the most with this one and then raked it in with the Tampa Bay upset and the Dallas upset (maybe a tie with Dallas). A strategy we’ve always liked is looking for teams that lost the public tons and tons of money last week (so New Orleans, Atlanta, Patriots and Pittsburgh) and considering them for next week.

One more note before we get to the meat of things: We’re going to pass on the Vikings on Thursday. They’re a great team and will probably cover the spread tonight; however, the public has driven the line down hard from +10 to +8 with Bridgewater out. If you can’t see how a play on the Vikings stinks then you need a good WHAP! The Packers are in nearly the same situation as our two side bets; that is, they’re an elite team; public currently in doubt about them; at home; great home records; need to get this win or their fans and teammates really all start doubting. The Packers looked like a tasty bet, but I have too much respect for the Vikings. That one is a pass.

In New England (Top Play):
Last week, Tom Brady was humiliated on national MNF live tv in one of his worst games ever. Maybe his worst actually. He threw two interceptions and was sacked and fumbled twice. It was awful. Now under 30% of the bets are on the Patriots as home underdogs. I’ll take that. I subscribe to the theory that great quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers (I know he’s off a win) all pick themselves up after losses or bad performances. Their records show it:
*Career, Drew Brees is 30-17-0 SU and 29-18 ATS off of a loss. That’s 20-5-0 (+12.48 ppg, 80%) SU and 17-8 ATS in the Dome (at home).

**Tom Brady is 45-16-0 (73.%) SU and 40-21-0 (65.6%) ATS after a loss.
****That’s 25-3-0 (+13.39 ppg, 89.3%) SU and 25-3 ATS since 2003 under 9 points favorite or a dog.

*Add to that, the Patriots are 42-7-0 (+11.57 ppg, 85.7%) SU at home since 2009! Why should they ever be dogs if they’re at home and Brady and Belichick are at the wheel? They were only ever underdogs at home once in 2013 against the Broncos and of course they won. They have been small favorites or home dogs just 4 times under a field goal in this era and won every single one of these games (4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS).
*Since November 1st, 2011, the Patriots are 17-1-0 SU and 18-0-0 (+15.36 ppg, 100%) ATS off of a loss not laying more than a field goal. The Patriots are at home off of a loss and they’re .500 right now. They’ve been 5-0 SU (+8 ppg) since 2003 with an average line of -7.5. Everybody is overreacting to how things went for the Patriots last game.

One last thing to think about: The Bengals have had the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL. Those 3 wins don’t look like anything that impressive to me.

Good luck on these three. You can pass on the other two and just take the Patriots if you’d like…..or if you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: https://www.procomputergambler.com/nfl/ 

I considered teasing the Patriots and Saints and well for 6 points….

Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31