Most bettors see a half-point and think it’s minor.
Professional bettors know it can be the difference between:
- A winning season
- And death by a thousand pushes and losses
This is where key numbers come in — and why price matters more than opinion.
What Are Key Numbers?
Key numbers are point spreads that games land on more often than others due to scoring patterns.
In football especially, certain margins occur far more frequently because of:
- Field goals (3 points)
- Touchdowns + extra points (7 points)
Because of this, some spreads are vastly more valuable than others.
The Most Important Key Numbers (NFL)
Historically, the most critical NFL key numbers are:
- 3
- 7
- 6
- 10
- 14
Margins of 3 and 7 alone account for a massive percentage of final outcomes.
That means:
- +3.5 is dramatically better than +3
- -2.5 is far safer than -3
- Crossing a key number changes expected value — even if it looks small
Why Half-Points Matter So Much
A half-point:
- Turns losses into pushes
- Turns pushes into wins
- Protects you against the most common margins
Example:
- Bet A: +3
- Bet B: +3.5
Same team. Same game.
Very different long-term results.
That extra half-point captures value exactly where games land most often.
Key Numbers and Line Movement
This is why line movement across key numbers is so important.
A move from:
- +3 → +2.5 ❌ (bad for underdog bettors)
- -2.5 → -3 ❌ (bad for favorite bettors)
Those aren’t cosmetic moves — they materially change the bet.
Smart bettors care less about direction
and more about which numbers were crossed.
How Sportsbooks Use Key Numbers Against the Public
Sportsbooks know:
- Public bettors focus on teams
- Not prices
- Not half-points
- Not distribution
That’s why books:
- Shade lines toward key numbers
- Force public bettors to lay worse prices
- Move juice instead of numbers when possible
Professionals attack these inefficiencies relentlessly.
Key Numbers, CLV, and Market Timing
Key numbers are where:
- Market timing becomes critical
- CLV is won or lost
- Reverse line movement matters most
Beating the close by ½ point across a key number
is worth more than beating it by a full point elsewhere.
This is why early betting before a key number disappears can be so powerful.
Common Mistakes Bettors Make With Key Numbers
Most bettors:
- Ignore half-points
- Lay bad prices for convenience
- Bet late after key numbers are gone
- Don’t understand why CLV doesn’t translate to wins
Price precision isn’t optional — it’s the edge.
How We Handle Key Numbers at ProComputerGambler
At ProComputerGambler, key numbers are non-negotiable.
We:
- Track openers vs key thresholds
- Prioritize half-point protection
- Avoid laying bad numbers — even on “good” sides
- Factor key number movement into every timing decision
Sometimes the right bet is the right team — at the wrong number.
We pass on those.
Final Takeaway
Half-points aren’t small.
They sit exactly where games decide winners and losers.
If you:
- Understand key numbers
- Respect half-points
- Time the market correctly
You stop betting opinions
and start betting prices.
And prices are what win long-term.
Want to see how we protect key numbers every day? Our Top Plays prioritize price first — teams second.