Analyzing Dolphins vs. Patriots: Week 1 Predictions
NFL 2014 WEEK ONE RAW NUMBERS
Posted here: https://www.procomputergambler.com/raw-numbers/nfl/
| Game | Score | Status | Pick | Amount |
| Oakland | 14 | 1:00 PM ET | Oakland +5.5 WINNER! | 1.50 |
| N.Y. Jets | 19 | |||
| New England | 20 | 1:00 PM ET | Miami +5 WINNER! | 2.00 |
| Miami | 33 | (Top Play) |
Games that came close in order of strength (Seattle, Detroit, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Minnesota).
Of all of those, I would consider Seattle the most, as it fits a slew of technical parameters. Too much of a marquee game, though, and we have lots of reasons to like Green Bay this season. Definitely worth a unit though if you’re in the mood for a bet tonight.
Those are probably each good for 1 unit, but that is a shaky one unit. Week 1 is never easy, and people often tend to go ho,g wild taking too many plays, so we’re going to stick with our two best: Miami and Oakland.
In Miami (TOP PLAY):
Again… .” In Miami”…why is it week one and the Dolphins are +5 point home underdogs.
The weather is forecasted to spike up to the 90’s with high humidity for this game. The Patriots have struggled in this kind of situation, and usually, if they did pull the win, they didn’t cover the points.
Over 80% of the public bets are on the spread in thone on for New England on the road in week one. No real indication of smart money yet on the Dolphins, but I think they’ll be waiting to strike on this one as it may gain a whole extra point at the rate the public is doubting the Dolphins and overvaluing New England. Add to that, Miami’s secondary is looking top-notch with Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon, who amassed 20 sacks last season.
*Since 1998, the Dolphins are 9-6-1 (60%) ATS at home to the Patriots. Not bad. The Patriots always seem to beat Miami, but Miami went 5-2 (71.4%) ATS last season as underdogs, showing some signs of life as a team. As we dive into the nfl weekends performance breakdown, one must consider how both teams respond under pressure in these early season matchups. Historical data suggests that home underdogs often surprise, especially when the odds are stacked against them, creating the potential for a shift in momentum. Given the Dolphins’ recent trends and the Patriots’ past struggles, this matchup could provide an intriguing narrative for bettors looking to capitalize on perceived value.
In Oakland:
We have this matchup about even. Definitely not five and a half points. People are all down on Oakland foseveralof reasons, but aren’t thinking too much about how the Jets might be thinking about more difficult games ahead. This is too many points. We’re calling it to be close or for Oakland to win straight up.
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
Follow-up email:
“Guys,
Take a look at Miami.
They’re at +3.5 now (we got them at 5). Clearly, the sharp money is coming down on the Dolphins with us as the public bets are still mostly on the Patriots.
I have another thought to add to this: Since 1996, week one road teams that finished last season with 12 or more wins are just 14-24-1 (36.8%) ATS. Check out how they did on the moneyline….not good! In addition, (credit to Killersports.com for finding this, trend which I really love): Since 2005, Tom Brady is 0-12-0 ATS vs. the AFC in a rematch where he had previously completed less than 70%, but racked up OVER 280 yards line -4 or less. Again, thanks to Killersports on that nugget of gold,d which I’m just seeing now after making this selection.
This play stinks, I know it…nobody likes taking the Miami Dolphins against the Patriots, but I’m all over them here in week 1. Considering adding something small, like 0.25 units risked on the Dolphins money-line if it comes back to where it was at the open before game time. Usually, we don’t want to overreact to additional plus factors after placing a wager. If you got the Dolphins in at a good price, just leave it and enjoy the game.
Best regards,
Tom” As we move into nfl week 6 game predictions, it’s crucial to assess each team’s current standings and injuries. The matchups can often surprise us, so keeping an eye on the latest developments will be key to making informed decisions. Make sure to monitor the line movements as well; they can provide insights into where sharp money is going.
