Understanding how the betting market behaves is one of the most important skills for serious sports bettors. While individual handicapping factors like pitching matchups and injuries matter, the structure of the betting market itself often determines whether a strategy is profitable.
To better understand how Major League Baseball betting markets behave, we analyzed every MLB game since 2004, examining the performance of favorites, underdogs, runline bets, and totals.
The results reveal several important truths about baseball betting markets — including why runline underdogs outperform expectations and why betting favorites blindly is rarely profitable.
Runline Favorites vs Underdogs
One of the most interesting structural characteristics of MLB betting markets appears in runline betting.
The runline functions similarly to a point spread in other sports. Favorites must win by two or more runs (-1.5), while underdogs can either win the game outright or lose by exactly one run (+1.5).
Runline Results Since 2004
| Bet Type | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Runline Favorites (-1.5) | 18,979-25,285 | 42.9% |
| Runline Underdogs (+1.5) | 25,285-18,979 | 57.1% |
Runline favorites have covered just 42.9% of games, while underdogs have covered roughly 57%.
This result highlights an important reality of baseball games: many games are decided by a single run.
Because sportsbooks know bettors prefer favorites, they often price runlines in a way that makes favorite -1.5 bets expensive relative to their true probability.
For this reason, many experienced bettors look more closely at underdog runlines when evaluating MLB wagers.
Moneyline Favorites vs Underdogs
The most common wager in baseball is the moneyline, where bettors simply choose which team will win the game.
Since 2004, MLB favorites have won the majority of games.
Moneyline Results Since 2004
| Bet Type | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 30,008-21,514 | 58.2% |
| Underdogs | 21,514-30,008 | 41.8% |
At first glance, betting favorites might appear to be a profitable strategy. However, sportsbooks adjust prices accordingly.
Despite winning 58.2% of games, betting every MLB favorite historically produces a negative return on investment.
This is because sportsbooks increase the price on favorites, forcing bettors to risk more money relative to the potential payout.
In other words:
High win rates do not automatically produce profitable betting strategies.
Home Field Advantage in MLB
Another frequently discussed factor in sports betting is home field advantage.
Historically, MLB home teams have enjoyed a modest edge.
Home Team Performance Since 2004
| Team Type | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 28,307-24,374 | 53.7% |
| Road Teams | 24,374-28,307 | 46.3% |
Home teams win about 53–54% of MLB games, which aligns closely with historical league averages.
However, sportsbooks are fully aware of this advantage. As a result, betting home teams blindly also produces negative long-term returns.
Home vs Road Favorites
Breaking the results down further reveals similar patterns.
Favorite Performance by Location
| Favorite Type | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Home Favorites | 20,213-13,998 | 59.1% |
| Road Favorites | 9,784-7,510 | 56.6% |
Home favorites win slightly more often, which makes sense given the combination of team strength and home field advantage.
But again, sportsbooks price these expectations into the betting lines.
Underdog Performance
Underdog results vary significantly depending on whether the team is playing at home or on the road.
Road Underdogs
| Record | Win % |
|---|---|
| 7,180-9,483 | 43.1% |
Road underdogs win far less frequently than favorites, which is expected given the disadvantages of both team strength and travel.
However, when runlines are used instead of moneylines, underdogs become much more competitive because many MLB games remain close.
MLB Totals Market Efficiency
Totals betting — wagering on whether the combined score of both teams will go over or under the posted number — is another extremely popular MLB market.
Since 2004, totals betting results have been very balanced.
Overs vs Unders Since 2004
| Bet Type | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overs | 24,107 | |
| Unders | 24,987 | |
| Push | 2,355 |
Overs have hit 49.1% of the time, while unders have been slightly more frequent.
The narrow difference suggests the totals market is highly efficient, meaning sportsbooks do a strong job setting scoring expectations.
Average MLB Totals by Season
Another interesting trend appears when examining how average totals have changed over time.
| Season | Avg Total |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.5 |
| 2024 | 8.3 |
| 2023 | 8.7 |
| 2022 | 8.2 |
| 2021 | 8.6 |
| 2020 | 8.8 |
| 2019 | 9.1 |
| 2018 | 8.6 |
| 2017 | 8.9 |
| 2016 | 8.4 |
| 2015 | 7.8 |
| 2014 | 7.8 |
| 2013 | 8.0 |
| 2012 | 8.2 |
| 2011 | 8.1 |
| 2010 | 8.4 |
| 2009 | 8.9 |
| 2008 | 8.9 |
| 2007 | 9.1 |
| 2006 | 9.2 |
| 2005 | 8.9 |
| 2004 | 9.1 |
Several distinct scoring environments appear:
• High offense era (2004-2009)
• Pitching-dominant era (2013-2015)
• Juiced ball era (2017-2019)
• Modern balanced scoring environment
These shifts demonstrate how league-wide conditions influence sportsbook totals.
Large Favorites
Many bettors assume large favorites are overpriced, but historical results show a more nuanced picture.
Favorites -150 or Higher
| Record | Win % |
|---|---|
| 13,945-7,823 | 64.1% |
Favorites -200 or Higher
| Record | Win % |
|---|---|
| 4,831-2,021 | 70.5% |
Large favorites win frequently, and in some historical periods they have actually performed close to break-even or slightly profitable.
This suggests sportsbooks are careful when pricing heavy favorites.
Totals Extremes
Totals also behave differently when the posted number is unusually low or high.
Games With Totals 8 or Lower
| Result | Win % |
|---|---|
| Over | 48.3% |
| Under | 51.7% |
Lower totals slightly favor the under, which is logical because these games often feature elite starting pitchers or pitcher-friendly ballparks.
Games With Totals 10 or Higher
| Result | Win % |
|---|---|
| Over | 50.6% |
| Under | 49.4% |
High totals tend to produce more balanced results.
Divisional Games
Another common belief among bettors is that divisional matchups behave differently because teams are more familiar with each other.
However, historical results suggest otherwise.
Divisional Games
| Result | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 13,111-9,430 | 58.2% |
These numbers are almost identical to overall MLB results, indicating that divisional familiarity does not significantly impact moneyline outcomes.
What These Results Mean for Bettors
Several key lessons emerge from this historical analysis:
1. Runline underdogs outperform runline favorites.
Many MLB games are decided by a single run, making +1.5 runlines valuable in certain situations.
2. Favorites win often but are usually overpriced.
Blindly betting favorites rarely produces positive returns.
3. The totals market is extremely efficient.
Finding value requires deeper analysis than simply betting overs or unders.
4. Home field advantage is real but already priced into the market.
Sportsbooks account for the roughly 54% win rate of home teams.
Final Thoughts
Sports betting markets are designed to be efficient, and Major League Baseball is no exception. While certain structural tendencies exist — such as runline underdog performance — sportsbooks generally price these factors into the betting lines.
For bettors looking to gain an edge, the key is combining market awareness with deeper statistical analysis, including pitching matchups, scheduling situations, and situational betting trends.
Understanding the baseline behavior of the MLB betting market is the first step toward identifying opportunities where the odds may not fully reflect the true probability of an outcome.
MLB Situational Betting Research
In addition to broad market trends, we also track how specific situations impact MLB betting outcomes. The following studies analyze several common betting narratives using historical data since 2004.
• MLB Home Underdog Betting Results
Analysis of how home underdogs perform straight-up and whether the home field advantage creates betting value.
• MLB Runline Betting Trends
A breakdown of how favorites and underdogs perform against the -1.5 runline spread.
• MLB Teams After Scoring 10+ Runs
Does offensive momentum carry over into the next game?
• MLB Teams After Extra-Inning Games
Testing the popular theory that bullpen fatigue impacts teams following long games.
• MLB Teams After Blowout Losses
Do MLB teams bounce back after losing by five or more runs?
