Many sports bettors assume betting favorites is a reliable strategy because stronger teams win more often.
But while favorites do win frequently in MLB, the key question is whether those wins translate into profitable betting results.
To examine this, we analyzed every MLB game since 2004.
Favorite Betting Results Since 2004
SU: 30,008 – 21,514
Win Rate: 58.2%
ROI: -1.8%
Profit/Loss: -$141,209
Favorites have won 58.2% of MLB games over this period.
However, betting every favorite still produces negative long-term returns because sportsbooks adjust prices to account for the higher probability of winning.
Comparing Favorites vs Underdogs
Because every game has both a favorite and an underdog, the results also reveal the performance of underdogs.
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Favorite win percentage | 58.2% |
| Underdog win percentage | 41.8% |
| Favorite betting ROI | -1.8% |
Even though favorites win far more often, sportsbooks price them aggressively enough to eliminate long-term profitability.
Key Takeaway
The data shows an important principle of betting markets:
Winning more often does not necessarily mean making money.
In MLB betting markets, sportsbooks adjust the odds to ensure that favorites winning more frequently does not translate into easy profits for bettors.
