Home underdogs have long been one of the most discussed concepts in baseball betting. Many bettors believe teams playing at home while listed as underdogs are undervalued by sportsbooks.
The theory is simple: home-field advantage combined with plus-money odds could create profitable betting opportunities.
To evaluate whether that assumption holds up, we analyzed MLB home underdog results from 2004 through 2024.
The dataset includes more than 16,000 games over two decades of Major League Baseball.
MLB Home Underdog Record Since 2004
Across the full dataset, home underdogs produced the following straight-up results:
SU: 7180–9483
Win Rate: 43.1%
ROI: -3.1%
Profit/Loss: -$51,455
At first glance, the results may be surprising. While home underdogs win over 43% of games, betting every home underdog historically resulted in a negative return on investment of approximately -3.1%.
This suggests sportsbooks have generally priced home underdogs efficiently over the long run.
Why Bettors Like Home Underdogs
Despite the negative historical ROI, home underdogs remain popular among bettors for several reasons.
Home Field Advantage
MLB teams tend to perform slightly better at home due to factors such as:
- Familiar ballparks
- Last at-bat advantage
- Reduced travel fatigue
- Crowd support
Because of this, bettors often assume sportsbooks may undervalue the home team when they are listed as an underdog.
Plus-Money Odds
Unlike favorites, underdogs typically offer positive betting odds.
For example, a home underdog priced at +140 only needs to win about 41.7% of the time to break even.
Since home underdogs historically win 43.1% of games, some bettors believe selective opportunities may exist in this category.
However, the overall results show that blindly betting every home underdog has not historically produced profits.
Market Efficiency in MLB Betting
One of the biggest takeaways from the data is how efficient the MLB betting market has become.
Sportsbooks adjust betting lines using massive amounts of information, including:
- Starting pitcher matchups
- Team strength ratings
- Bullpen usage
- Travel schedules
- Injury reports
Because of this, simple strategies like betting every home underdog rarely generate long-term profits.
Instead, successful bettors often focus on specific situational angles where the market may slightly misprice a game.
Situations Where Home Underdogs May Perform Differently
Although overall results are negative, certain situations can influence how home underdogs perform.
Examples include:
- Teams returning home after long road trips
- Pitching mismatch games
- Opponents finishing extended travel stretches
- Games following extra-inning contests
These situations can sometimes create small inefficiencies in betting lines.
Our MLB betting research explores several of these angles in more detail.
Related MLB Betting Research
You can explore more historical MLB betting trends below:
- MLB Favorites vs Underdogs Betting Results
- MLB Runline Betting Trends Since 2004
- MLB Teams After Scoring 10+ Runs
- MLB Teams After Extra-Inning Games
- MLB Teams After Blowout Loss Betting Results Since 2004
These studies analyze how different situations have historically impacted MLB betting outcomes.
Final Thoughts
The historical data shows that home underdogs win a significant number of games but still produce a negative long-term return when bet blindly.
This reinforces an important lesson for sports bettors: profitability rarely comes from broad strategies alone.
Instead, long-term success typically requires identifying specific situations where the betting market may be slightly mispriced.
Analyzing historical trends like these can provide valuable context when evaluating MLB betting opportunities.
