#001 This season the Oakland Athletics are 25-5-0 (2.45, 83.3%) avg total: 7.9 / +19.5 units / +59.9% roi OVER the total in games lined between 6.5 and 9. *They’re also 20-3-0 (3.02, 87.0%) OVER the total this season against teams that strike out 7+ times a game. Maybe they don’t take these offenses seriously and get caught in a breather spot.
#002 The Philadelphia Phillies are 33-9-1 (2.3 rpg, +23.1 units, +47.8% roi, 78.5%) Over the total 9 or less against plus .500 opponents this season!
#003 Stephen Strasburg is 10-1-0 (3.00, 90.9%, +76.8% roi) OVER the totals since 2012 after a game he pitched allowing 1 or fewer earned runs. Today he’ll start for the Washington Nationals facing the San Diego Padres on the road for -145 with the total lined at 7. Will this one go over? See if the raw numbers agree.
#004 This season, this Minnesota Twins are 19-5 (+1.71 rpg, 79.2%, +19.01 units, +73.6% roi) SU after averaging under 7.9 hits per game in their last 10.
#005 This season (2013), the St. Louis Cardinals are a massive 21-3 (87.5%, +17.36 units, +52.5% roi) SU after a game where they only scored 2 runs or fewer.
#006 Since 2012, the Seattle Mariners are SU: 27-9 (2.36, 75.0%, +26.7 units, +67.2% roi) after having lost two or more of their last 8 games.
#007 Oakland is now 14-2 this MonthSince July 1st, 2012, the Oakland Athletics are a cool 14-2 (+1.31 rpg, 87.5%, +14.04 units).
#008 The Philadelphia Phillies are 3-19 (-2.6 rpg, -21.02 units, +83.6% roi fade) this season after a close (1 or 2 run) loss! Doesn’t sound like a real spirited team.
#009 Since 2012, the Boston Red Sox are just 10-23 (-0.85 rpg, 30.3%, -28.47 units, +78.3% roi to fade) as -150 to -200 home favorites. This is a massive fail spot yielding big value.
#010 The Houston Astros are 31-15 +20.45 units (+41.1% roi) since 2010 at home vs. lefties in any game other than the last game of a series.
#011 The Astros are just 7-37 (15.9%, +23.53 units to fade) SU since 2011 in July’s. This season is no exception; they’re now 4-13 SU this month.
#012 The A’s are a whopping 44-24 SU (64.7%, +26.15 units, +34.7% roi) since 2012 after 4+ straight road games. *They’re 99-57 SU (63.5%, +47.1 units, +25.5% roi) since 2012 in games where the total is 7, 7.5 or 8.
#013 The San Diego Padres are now 0-13 (-3.7 rpg, -13.4 units, -100% roi) this season after allowing 3 runs or less in two straight games.
#014 The Colorado Rockies are 11-4-0 (+4.2 rpg, +6.5 Units, +36.3% roi) over the total this season at Coors (home field) after a game where the bullpen didn’t allow any. It get’s better. The Rockies are an amazing 10-0 (+6.2 rpg, +10 units, +81.6% roi) this season after two or more straight games where the bullpen didn’t allow any.
#015 Since 2013, the Mets are just 22-45 -28.69 units at home after allowing 4 runs or less. That’s 12-23 (34.3%, -15.54, +32.5% to fade) SU after allowing 2 runs or less.
#016 The Pirates are 50-28 (64.1%, +21.22 units, +22.7% roi) SU since 2013 after scoring 2 runs or fewer last game. Perfect set up. Regular one on Miami.
#017 The Oakland Athletics are 16-3 (+15.29 Units, +75.2% roi) after July 1st this season.
#018 The Kansas City Royals are an incredible 14-2 (+2.19 rpg, 87.5%, +15.43 units) SU after upsetting a division rival as >+116 dogs. **That’s 11-1 (+2.42 rpg, 91.7%, +12.62 units, +98.8% roi) SU for +130 and up!
#019 Since 2011, the Cardinals are 119-59 (+1.12 rpg, 66.9%, +37.30 units, +13.7% roi) SU at home in second halves of seasons. Huge value on STL here where they’d normally be roughly -151
#020 The Oakland A’s are 63-49 (56.2%, +21.88 units) SU since 2012 against plus .500 teams starting righties.
#021 The New York Mets are 6-24 (20%, -23.84 units, +62.3% roi to fade) SU under Terry Collins at home off of six or more straight road games. *That’s 1-14 as favorites which they may or may not be here. +119.5% roi to fade.
#022 Baltimore is 53-41 +25.07 units (+25.6% roi) this season against plus .500 teams. That’s 28-22 +18.46 units (+36.9% roi) as road dogs (against +.500 teams)! Not only that, but Baltimore is 14-3 +13.17 units (+67.8% roi) on 1+ day of rest.
#023 The Rangers are an odd duck without a doubt. Rarely have we seen a team that loosens the belt so much in any season after a good defensive performance. How does one define ‘good defensive performance?’ How about just roughing it and summing up runs allowed in their last game….The Texas Rangers are only 11-24 (-1.1 rpg) -25.49 units this season after a good game where they allowed 2 or fewer runs.
#024 The Baltimore Orioles are 35-20 (63.6%, +16.64 units, +27% roi) SU this season against plus .500 teams. *The Red Sox are just 84-96 (+18.48 units to fade, -12.1% roi) SU since 2012 against righty starters. **They’re 62-71 (46.6%, -20.01 units, +9% roi to fade) SU since 2012 off of a loss. ***That’s 36-50 (41.9%, +17.2% roi to fade) against a righty starter. ****The Baltimore Orioles are 20-4 (+1.96 rpg, 83.3%, +17.22 units, +63.2% roi) SU this season after a loss by 3 runs or more.
#025 The Baltimore Orioles are 78-68 (+34.45 units, +23.6% roi) SU since 2012 as underdogs. 57-46 (55.3%, +31.3% roi) SU on the road.
#026 The Rays are just 6-17 SU (-15.76 units, +58.8% roi to fade) this season after 2+ straight games with 0 errors.
#027 In addition, the Texas Rangers are 16-3 (+2.05 rpg, 84.2%, +34.4% roi) straight up at home in the last game of either a split series or a series they are losing.
#028 The Detroit Tigers top the league this season in run line covered when they win as road favorites. In other words, we strongly feel that the Tigers are going to pull a win here so you the most value today is in the -1.5 or possibly in the -1 for a bit less (1.5 units).
#029 Since 2011, the Mets are just 39-66 (37.1%, -27.61 units) SU at home against a plus .500 team. That’s 6-16 (+27.6% roi) SU and 9-13 (+31.8%) RL after July as home dogs.
#030 The Nationals are 28-1 SU as a 140 favorite in the last game of a series after a game in which they hit more home runs than their opponent.
#031 The White Sox are 0-13 OU in the last game of a home series vs a lefty after facing three straight righties.
#032 The Rangers are 45-16 since Jul 29, 2015 at home off a home game.
#033 The Orioles are 267-204 since Aug 04, 2010 off a home game.
#034 The Nationals are 133-71 since Jul 16, 2010 as a road favorite
#035 The Orioles are 55-45 55%, +29.7 units since 2012 as underdogs. 41-32 56.2%, +26.12 units on the road.
#036 The Red Sox, since 2010, have tended to get overvalued (avg -142 line) when going for revenge as a home favorite and only going 39-54 41.9% -35.11 units.
#037 The Colorado Rockies are 20-4-1 (3.5 rpg, +55.7% roi, 83.3%) over the total this season against great starting pitchers with season to date WHIPs (walks and hits per innings pitched) 1.15 or less.
#038 The Mariners are 15-0 SU as a 130+ favorite when opponents starter has an ERA of higher than 3.85 on the season.
#039 The Blue Jays are 10-0 OU after a win in which they did not walk the opponent.
#040 The Rangers are 0-13 OU after a road game in which they struck out at least ten times and it is not the first game of a series.
#041 The Nationals are 0-15 OU on the road off a road game when seeking same season revenge vs their opponents starting pitcher.
#042 The Mets are 0-18 RL as a home favorite when opponents starter has an ERA of higher than 3.7 on the season.
#043 Since 2004, the Red Sox are 142-73 +28.82 big ole units as Saturday or Sunday home favorites. They are 28-12 (70%, 8.36 units) off of a loss as a favorite now playing as home favorites on Saturday and an immense 21-7 (+2.14 rpg, +9.7 units) on Sunday.
#044 The Texas Rangers play with spirit. They take a loss seriously and look for a rebound in a fresh series game 1 or 2; since 2010 they are 66-19 (+3.0 rpg, 77.6%, +38.87 units) off of a loss! It get’s even better: for a little bit steeper a price (-135 or more), those Rangers give you your return on the dollar…they are 45-8 (+3.47 rpg, 84.9%!!!, +30.46 units). That’s 30.2% roi in the first case and a whopping +33.0% roi in the second case! That is really great for a favorite trend.
#045 The Phillies are 17-0 +17 units SU as a home favorite off a road game in which they scored in at least four separate innings.
#046 The Cardinals are 0-14 RL -15.4 units as a 130+ favorite in the first game of a home series after a game in which they struck out their opponent at least ten times.
#047 The Pirates are 38-25 +14.9% roi since May 17, 2015 on the road
#048 Teams are 22-18 +30.6% roi since Aug 16, 2015 as a road dog after a loss as a favorite – Pirates
#049 The Tigers are 74-72 -29.1 units since Aug 16, 2013 at home after a game as a favorite.
#050 The Orioles are 188-147 +79.71 units since Aug 22, 2011 after a game as a dog.
#051 The Dodgers are now 39-8 (+2.00 rpg, 83%, +29.62 units, +48.5% roi) SU now since the 22nd of June!
#052 The Pirates are 45-25 (64.3%, +29.41 units, +38.2% roi) SU since 2011 after losing by one run to the same opponent.
#053 The Cubs are 4-14 since May 15, 2016 at home
#054 The Red Sox are 103-73-8 since Jun 11, 2015
#055 The Pirates are 100-73-5 since Jun 21, 2015
#056 The Angels are 5-14 since May 24, 2016 on the road. The Angels are 64-87 since Jul 23, 2015
#057 The Giants are 22-11 since Apr 22, 2016 at home
#058 The Tigers are 29-18 since May 15, 2016.
#059 The A’s are again a qualifying raw number play. Stronger now off of a loss. **Since 2012, The A’s are 15-3 (+14.65 units, +73.4% roi) SU off of 3 or more straight losses to the same opponent.
#060 The Texas Rangers are just 80-73 (+13.08 units to fade) SU since 2012 off of a loss. That’s ***This is a huge let down spot for the Rangers. Since 2012, they’ve gone 16-29 (35.6%, -24.52 units, +45.2% roi to fade) SU after going three or more straight games without any errors.
#061 The A’s are a solid 68-50 (+29.27 units, +23.2% roi) SU since 2012 after April’s facing tough plus .500 teams.
#062 The Tampa Bay Rays are just 52-73 (41.6%) SU since 2006 with a day of rest or a day off.
#063 The Dodgers have found their groove: they’re now 26-7 (78.8%, +17.44 units, +41.6% roi) since July this season.
#064 Boston is just 69-90 (43.4%, +21.65 units to fade) SU since 2012 against plus .500 teams.
#065 KC is 70-73 (+17.67 units, +12% roi) SU since 2012 against plus .500 teams.
#066 The Pirates are 70-44 (61.4%, +29.01 units, +21% roi) SU this season. Enough said there. **That’s 35-10 (+1.67 rpg, 77.8%, +27.02 units, +47.5% roi) SU against bad teams under .460 .
#067 Since 2013, the Seattle Mariners are a nasty 13-24 (35.1%, -22.39 units, +53.9% roi to fade) SU as home favorites between -125 and -175.
#068 The A’s are 34-13 (72.3%, +21.54 units, +37.8% roi) SU since 2012 in July games.
#069 The Blue Jays are now just 3-14 (17.6%, +50.1% roi to fade) SU in the last month against plus .500 teams.
#070 The LA Angels are just 9-19 (32.1%, +15.17 units to fade [+49.4% roi]) SU this season in division games off of a loss. *They’re also just 32-43 (42.7%, +18.71 units to fade [+23% roi]) SU this season in night games.
#071 The San Diego Padres are 12-4 (+1.25 rpg, 75%, +53.1% roi) SU this season at home against .530 to .600 teams.
#072 The Reds are just 3-12 (-1.67 rpg, 20%, +59.4% roi to fade) SU this season on the road after scoring one or zero runs last game.
#073 Since 2013, the Seattle Mariners are 56-29 +23.92 units, +20.7% roi on the Runline on the road off of a win.
#074 The Cardinals are 335-201 +77.78 units since Apr 07, 2004 after a loss as a favorite
#075 The Twins are 15-0 RL on the road after a road game in which they allowed 6+ runs and they are not a dog of more than 120.
#076 The Diamondbacks are 12-0 RL as a road dog of more than 135 vs a team that has a worse record.
#077 The Astros are 0-10 RL SU as a favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start.
#078 Buck Showalter is 391-356 +84.27 units with the Baltimore Orioles as dogs or home favorites where the total is between 7 and 10.
#079 Since 2012, the Detroit Tigers are just 17-34 (33.3%, +20.32 units to fade) on the road as -140 or cheaper favorites.
#080 2010, the Texas Rangers are 103-52 (66.5%, +37.97 units) off of a loss. **They’re 19-3 (+2.68 rpg, 86.4%, +49.2% roi) in game 2 or 3 (so against same opponent) after putting up 1 or ZERO runs since 2011. 6-1 at home.
#081 The A’s are 57-26 (68.7%, +32.69 units, +32.6% roi) SU since 2012 after winning 4 or 5 of their last 5 games. **That is 31-8 (79.5%, +40.5% roi) SU against sub .500 teams. ***10-6 RL (+46.5% roi) and 12-4 SU as home favorites.
#082 The Blue Jays are just 3-13 (18.8%, +49.2% roi to fade) SU now this month against plus .500 teams.
#083 Since July this season, the Orioles are running hot, going 23-10 (69.7%, +15.9 units, +43.1% roi) SU. *They’re also a massive 21-2 (+2 rpg, 77.8%, +17.87 units, +61.5% roi) SU this season vs. teams between .500 and .560.
#088 Since 2004, the White Sox have killed the Mariners 52-27 (65.8%) +19.89 units head-to-head. That’s a massive 24-5 (82.8%) +18.19 units since 2010.
#089 The Reds are 83-28 +41.61 units since Oct 03, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss as a favorite
#090 FILTER: The OVER is 46-25-1 +18.7 units when Clint Hurdle and the Pirates are on the road and won last game by 1 or 2 runs. Total>6.5
#091 The OVER is 36-18-3 +16.5 units when Walt Weiss and the Rockies just allowed over 7 runs last game. ***This is 93-61-0 +25.18 +14.6% roi OU when the total is 10.5!
