Games featuring heavy favorites are common in baseball betting. When a team is priced at -200 or higher, sportsbooks are signaling a strong expected advantage.
But are these large favorites worth betting?
Historical Results
SU: 4,831–2,021
Win Rate: 70.5%
ROI: +0.8%
Profit/Loss: +$12,715
Big favorites win over 70% of their games, and surprisingly, the long-term results show a small positive ROI.
However, fading these large favorites has historically produced extremely poor results.
Key Takeaways
• Heavy favorites win more than 70% of games.
• Betting them blindly produced a small positive ROI historically.
• Fading big favorites has been extremely costly.
