MLB Big Favorites Betting Results Since 2004
Games featuring heavy favorites are common in baseball betting. When a team is priced at -200 or higher, sportsbooks are signaling a strong expected advantage.
But are these large favorites worth betting?
MLB Big Favorites Historical Results
SU: 4,831–2,021
Win Rate: 70.5%
ROI: +0.8%
Profit/Loss: +$12,715
Big favorites win over 70% of their games, and surprisingly, the long-term results show a small positive ROI.
However, fading these large favorites has historically produced extremely poor results.
MLB Big Favorites Key Takeaways
• Heavy favorites win more than 70% of games.
• Betting them blindly produced a small positive ROI historically.
• Fading big favorites has been extremely costly.
Related MLB Betting Research
- MLB Betting Market Analysis Since 2004
- MLB Runline Betting Trends Since 2004
- MLB Home Underdog Betting Results
- MLB Teams After Extra-Inning Games
- MLB Teams After Blowout Losses
Great read.
The distinction between price and probability is something most bettors completely miss.
This really highlights how much of betting comes down to understanding the market rather than the teams.