MLB Home Favorites Betting Results Since 2004
Home field advantage is one of the most frequently discussed factors in baseball betting. When sportsbooks list a team as a favorite while playing at home, many bettors assume the combination of superior team strength and home field advantage creates a strong betting opportunity.
But how profitable is this strategy over the long run?
To evaluate this question, we analyzed MLB games since 2004 where the home team was listed as the betting favorite.
MLB Home Favorites Historical Results
SU: 20,213–13,998
Win Rate: 59.1%
ROI: -1.7%
Profit/Loss: -$93,710
Home favorites win nearly 60% of their games, which is significantly higher than the league-wide average.
However, the betting results show that blindly wagering on every home favorite produces a negative return on investment.
Key Takeaways for MLB Home Favorites
• Home favorites win about 59% of games.
• Despite the high win rate, betting them blindly results in negative ROI.
• Sportsbooks price home favorites efficiently due to strong public betting demand.
Access the Full Dataset and Systems
The examples shown here are drawn from a much larger dataset that tracks market behavior, system performance, and edge development over time.
If you want access to the full structure behind these results, including daily updates and documented performance tracking, you can review the available options here:
Related MLB Betting Research
- MLB Betting Market Analysis Since 2004
- MLB Runline Betting Trends Since 2004
- MLB Home Underdog Betting Results
- MLB Teams After Extra-Inning Games
- MLB Teams After Blowout Losses
Good breakdown. MLB home favorites can look obvious on the surface, but the price still matters. I like how this looks at results instead of assuming the favorite role is automatically profitable.