MLB Player Trends: Home Favorites Shine

MLB player trends help identify how specific pitchers, players, and role-based situations have performed inside historical betting markets. In baseball, individual players can affect market pricing more directly than in most sports, especially starting pitchers. That makes MLB player trends valuable — but only when they are interpreted with price, sample size, role, and market context in mind.

This page is a historical trend archive. The trends below are not meant to be treated as automatic picks. They are examples of player-specific betting patterns that can help point toward possible market inefficiencies, pitcher pricing errors, totals behavior, or situational betting angles worth further review.

How to Use MLB Player Trends

MLB player trends should be used as research signals, not blind betting commands. A strong historical record may point toward value, but the current line still matters. A pitcher may have a great past record in a certain situation, but if the market has already adjusted, the edge may be gone.

Before using any MLB player trend, ask:

Is the sample size large enough?
Does the trend still apply to the current player, team, role, and market?
Was the trend profitable because of price, or only because of win percentage?
Does today’s line still offer value?
Has the market already moved?
Does the trend fit with current Raw Numbers, matchup data, and market timing?

The goal is not to bet every trend. The goal is to identify which player-based patterns deserve deeper analysis.

Why Pitcher Trends Matter in MLB

Starting pitchers have a major impact on MLB betting markets. A starting pitcher can influence the moneyline, total, run line, public perception, and early market movement. That is why pitcher trends often matter more in baseball than individual player trends do in many other sports.

However, pitcher trends still need context.

A pitcher can be profitable as an underdog and overpriced as a favorite. A pitcher can produce strong under results in one ballpark and completely different results in another. A pitcher can have a strong win-loss trend but still fail to produce betting profit if the moneyline price is too high.

That is why MLB player trends should always be read through the lens of market value.

MLB Player Trends Database

The trends below are historical MLB player and pitcher betting trends. They are kept here as a research archive for studying player-specific market behavior, pitcher pricing, totals patterns, and situational betting angles.

#001 Since August of 2010, Zack Greinke has been an absolutely smoking SU: 29-3 (2.6 rpg, +24.67 units) at home! Will he feel at home with the Angels today? Subscribe now and check out the raw numbers on this matchup!

#002 Ryan Vogelsong of the San Francisco Giants is an amazing 17-0-0 (-2.7 rpg, +17 units) Under the total when he starts at home for less than -135 since 2011! By the way, the Giants averaged 2.6 runs vs. opponents with 1.5 runs and the SU: tally comes to a nice 13-4 +8.98 cool crisp units.

#003 Career, the Colorado Rockies’ starter, Tyler Chatwood is a huge losing 1-9 SU (-11.71 units, +106.1% roi to fade)! Yesterday he changed it from 0-9 to 1-9. Can he keep it up now with the Rockies (coming from LA)?

#004 The Philadelphia Phillies are a nasty 3-18 (-2.5 rpg, -19.82 units, +82.5% roi fade) this season off of a 1 or 2 run loss!

#005 Arizona Diamondback’s starter, Ian Kennedy is a perfect 17-0 (+3.2 rpg, +17.88 units, +83.4% roi) since 2011 against division opponents as a smaller dog (+140) to favorite.

#006 Since 2011, Yovani Gallardo is 26-7 (+2.18 rpg, 78.8%, +14.98 units, +27.3% roi) SU as a 130+ home favorite.

#007 Tiger’s starter, Doug Fister is 15-1-1 (-2.5 rpg, +13.85 units, +70.1% roi) under the total since 2011 in his start after a game where he allowed 1 or 0 runs.

#008 Met’s starter R.A. Dickey is having a great 2012 season; he’s 14-3 (2.6 rpg, +12.6 units, +66% roi) while San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum is only 4-14 this season; 1-10 -82% roi with his team off of a win.

#009 Jorge De La Rosa is 7-0 (+2.29 rpg, +95.5% roi) SU after a team loss this season.

#010 Jered Weaver is 63-24 +21.87 units as a home favorite pitcher, 18-3 85.7%! in the last two seasons.

#011 Gio Gonzalez is 25-8 (75.75%, +13.42 units) as a home favorite starter since 2010.

#012 Yu Darvish is 7-2 (+2.67 rpg, 77.8%) +3.45 units at home (career). **Texas is 41-15 (+2.2 rpg, +17.42 units) since 2011 at home off of a loss.

#013 The Mets are 70-27-5 (+2.19 rpg, 72.2%, +40.80 units, +36.6% roi) OVER the total as +100 to +150 road underdogs under Terry Collins.

#014 Milwaukee Brewer’s starter, Randy Wolf typically gets little appreciation, but today we want to give him a shout out. He’s one of baseball’s most valuable starters that rarely gets the majority of the bets. As a +100 to +150 dog, he’s a killer 31-18 (+1.2 rpg, +20.48 units, +41.8%) AGAINST PLUS .500 WINNING OPPONENTS! Talk about a secret weapon.

#015 Atlanta Brave’s starter Kris Medlen is a stud and few know it. He’s 15-1 (+2.6 rpg, +14.76 units, +69.4% roi) after his first season in the MLB.

#016 Since 2012, St. Louis Cardinal’s starting pitcher Lance Lynn has produced a team record of 23-3 (+3.31 rpg, 88.5%, +19.89 units, +53.2% roi) straight up in games with the Vegas total between 9 and 7. Nine and seven are the two most common totals in MLB so this might be to say that he thrives in unorthodox spots. *Career, Lance Lynn is a massive 18-1 (+4.42 ppg, 94.7%, +16.25 units, +55.7% roi) straight up in all division games he has started in. He is truly a valuable player to the club.

#017 Milwaukee Brewer’s starter, Zack Greinke is a huge 23-3-1 +2.3 rpg, +19.9 (68.6% roi) since 2011 over the total after he won his last start by no more than 5 runs. The Brewers are 20-7 SU +11.2 units in this same situation.

#018 Since 2006, LA Angel’s starter Jered Weaver is a massive 74-28 (+1.89 rpg, 72.5%, +25.74 units) SU as a home favorite. That is an even more insane, 29-7 (+2.42 rpg, 80.6%, +16.64 units, +26.3% roi) SU since 2011. That is 17-3 (+2.5 rpg, 85%, +31.3% roi) SU in the second half of the season, and 10-1 against plus .500 teams.

#019 San Francisco Giant’s ace starter, Tim Lincecum is 22-13 (0.83, 62.9%, +2.3 units) as a home division favorite in his career. This season, Tim is only 6-14 (-1.90, 30.0%) in all of his starts.

#020 Jason Hammel is 13-3 SU (+12.66 units, +76.3% roi) since 2011 on the road after a loss.

#021 Since 2011, the Texas Ranger’s starting pitcher, Derek Holland is a rock solid 25-7 (2.41, 78.1%, +18.17 units, +45% roi) straight up since 2011 in night games against .500 and up opponents.

#022 In his career, Jered Weaver is 70-26 (72.9%) +27.17 units at home.

#023 Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals is just 1-8 (-2.0 rpg, -11.9 units) since 2011 in all day games. That’s 6-14 -17.85 units since 2010; however, prior to 2010, Carpenter was 31-14 +8.5 units in day games.

#024 Edwin Jackson is a nasty 5-13 (-0.8 rpg, -11.37 units) with the Washington Nationals (this season). Prior to that he was 41-38 -6.5 units in this spot so -17.87 units combined loss and nothing to really “regress” to.

#025 Jered Weaver is a rockstar as a home favorite, but on the road it is a different story; since 2006, that scenario carries a whopping -32.53 unit differential.

#026 Zack Greinke starts on the road against his old team. He’s an ugly 15-30 (33.3%, -20.24 units, +33.4% roi to fade) SU since 2004 on the road against bad teams averaging less than a zero run per game margin. Since 2008, that is a nasty 10-24 (-1.71 rpg, 29.4%, +13.26 units to fade) on the runline. Oddly enough, the worse the opponent gets, the worse this record gets too: His runline record since 2009 is 4-16 (-2.4 rpg, 20%, +49.1% roi to fade) on the road against bad teams averaging less than -0.5 run per game margin.

#027 Stephen Strasburg is 11-0-0 (+3.64 rpg, 100.0%, +11.00 units, +94% roi) OVER the total since halfway through April in his 3rd season in the Major Leagues after a start with one or zero earned runs. His team record was just 5-6 SU (+32.7% roi to fade); looks like he’s still finding his groove and the public is over valuing his ability to stay hot and restrict the opponent’s offense. He’ll start today on the road in San Francisco against the Giants and Matt Cain for +100 and with a game lined at 7.

#028 Chris Tillman is 8-0 (+142.6% roi) SU as a road dog with the line greater than +125. I would make this one bigger but don’t like going against Justin Verlander as a home favorite.

#029 Roy Halladay, in his amazing career, is a whopping 86-38 (+1.65, 69.4%) +13.7 units at home!

#030 Career JA Happ is 27-13-1 UNDER the total at home where the line is between 8 and 10. **That’s 9-0 in the last two seasons.

#031 Despaigne has a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts plus he’s 0-2 with and ERA of 10.24 and WHIP of 1.758 vs. the Cardinals. Lots of things stacking up here for the Cardinals.

#032 FILTER: Jered Weaver is 93-37 (71.5%, +35.09 units) at home. We have another 164-53 +84.77 System active, but for me, this is the big thing with Weaver.

#033 FILTER: Jeff Samardzija is just 22-37 -19.21 units since 2013 working on 6 or fewer days rest.

#034 Zack Greinke is 73-18 80.2%, +43.47 units SU as a 120+ home favorite (career).

#035 The Rays are 13-28 31.7%, -24.67 units SU after 2+ games allowing 2 or fewer runs.

#036 Jered Weaver is 74-28 (72.5%!!, +26.94 units) SU at home since 2007. On the road though it is a different story: he’s just 51-51 (+1.83 units to fade).

#037 Albert Puhols is now on the DL probably out for the season; they bets seem to be split on this matchup.

#038 Ace Cole Hamels is just 8-16 (33.3%, -14.75 units, +52% roi to fade) SU since 2013 vs. sub .500 teams.

#039 Felix Hernandez is just 8-15 -9.6 units since 2011 when the total is 7 to 7.5

#040 Chris Tillman is 63-39 (61.8%, +30.27 units) Together with Buck Showalter. Total between 7 and 10. Road dog with good starter <=1.15 WHIP In San Diego: Late season, we’re looking for a starter with 5 or fewer wins that opponent. Since 2010 this is 367-232 +60.5 units SU

#041 Carpenter had two similar games where it was 46 degrees or less. One was a series game 1 shut out 5-0 at home against the Tigers and the other was a crucial away match that ended in a tight 3-2 loss to the Orioles.What Makes an MLB Player Trend Useful?

A useful MLB player trend usually has more than a strong record. It should also have logical market support.

The strongest trends tend to involve:

Starting pitcher pricing
Home/road splits
Favorite/underdog price ranges
Totals behavior
Division familiarity
Public perception
Market overreaction
Bullpen or lineup context
Repeatable betting conditions

A weak trend is usually just a record with no clear market reason behind it.

That does not mean every trend needs to be perfect. Historical betting research often starts with observation. But before a trend becomes useful in a current betting decision, it needs to be checked against today’s price and market conditions.

Why Win Percentage Is Not Enough

Win percentage can be misleading in MLB because moneyline prices vary so much.

A pitcher who wins 65% of his starts may still be a poor betting option if he is usually priced as a heavy favorite. Another pitcher may win less often but produce strong profit if he is consistently undervalued as an underdog.

That is why MLB trends should be judged by more than record alone.

The better questions are:

Was the trend profitable?
What price range created the profit?
Did the market undervalue the player?
Did the public overvalue the player?
Would the same logic still apply today?

In MLB betting, the price is often just as important as the player.

How MLB Player Trends Fit With Raw Numbers

MLB player trends become more useful when they are combined with current market data. A historical pitcher trend may point toward a possible edge, but Raw Numbers help evaluate whether the current betting board still supports that angle.

A stronger workflow looks like this:

Review the player or pitcher trend.
Check the current line.
Compare the current number to the projected number.
Review market movement.
Decide whether the trend still has value.
Pass if the number no longer supports the angle.

That process is much stronger than blindly following a historical trend because it looks impressive.

The Bottom Line on MLB Player Trends

MLB player trends are valuable because baseball markets are highly sensitive to individual roles, especially starting pitchers. But the trend itself is only the beginning of the analysis.

The real question is whether the market is mispricing the player, pitcher, team, or game condition today.

Used correctly, MLB player trends can help identify potential market inefficiencies. Used carelessly, they can lead to overfitting, stale data, and bad prices.

The disciplined approach is to keep the trends, study the patterns, compare them with current Raw Numbers, and only act when the market still offers value.

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