Sportsbooks adjust moneyline odds based on the perceived difference between teams.
But does a larger favorite actually win by more runs on average?
We analyzed historical MLB games across different odds ranges.
Heavy Favorites (-200 or Higher)
SU: 4,831 – 2,021
Win Rate: 70.5%
Average Margin: +1.9 runs
ROI: +0.8%
Heavy favorites win a large majority of games and tend to win by nearly two runs per game on average.
Mid-Range Favorites (-120 to -150)
SU: 12,747 – 9,973
Win Rate: 56.1%
Average Margin: +0.5 runs
ROI: -1.7%
Mid-range favorites win more modestly, with an average margin of just half a run per game.
Pick’em Games
SU: 512 – 598
Win Rate: 46.1%
Average Margin: -0.2 runs
ROI: -10.9%
When sportsbooks rate teams as nearly equal, outcomes become much more unpredictable.
What The Data Shows
The historical results reveal a clear pattern:
• Bigger favorites tend to win by larger margins
• Even strong favorites rarely win by huge margins consistently
• Sportsbooks generally price favorites accurately over large samples
