Home field advantage is one of the most frequently discussed factors in baseball betting. When sportsbooks list a team as a favorite while playing at home, many bettors assume the combination of superior team strength and home field advantage creates a strong betting opportunity.
But how profitable is this strategy over the long run?
To evaluate this question, we analyzed MLB games since 2004 where the home team was listed as the betting favorite.
Historical Results
SU: 20,213–13,998
Win Rate: 59.1%
ROI: -1.7%
Profit/Loss: -$93,710
Home favorites win nearly 60% of their games, which is significantly higher than the league-wide average.
However, the betting results show that blindly wagering on every home favorite produces a negative return on investment.
Key Takeaways
• Home favorites win about 59% of games.
• Despite the high win rate, betting them blindly results in negative ROI.
• Sportsbooks price home favorites efficiently due to strong public betting demand.
