Packers vs Cowboys: A Betting Analysis
The Packers -4.5 comes real close. Some sort of money has been on the Cowboys pounding this line way down now. I just honestly don’t know how to read this game, though, and I sincerely feel this is one game to stay away from. If anyone calls this game and is right about it, I think it will be due to luck. It could either be Green Bay blowing out the Cowboys, since their true stats are just stellar compared to the Cowboys if you adjust to the (easy) teams the Boys have faced. On the other hand, I can see Dallas pulling the upset due to how the media has been treating their ‘illegitimate’ win against the Lions. On the other hand, weather conditions favor the Packers. Also, Rodgers is injured, but I actually love betting for a key player on an injury who is deciding to play the game. They go into a primal mode. There are just so many ways to look at this game, and I think that I’d just be pulling something out of my bum if I gave a call on this game. Value WAS on the Cowboys, but now I have to say, at -4.5, Packers would be my beer money lean.
As for Indy and Denver: the Dog (Indy +8.5) is the lean simply because of how poorly home teams off of a bye have done in the playoffs historically (ATS). On the other hand, we have the Broncos rated much better than the Colts. They’ve also done great as home favorites with a lot of points this season; compare that to the Patriots, who you can never count on to cover the lumber in Foxborough. This one is a pass, but I might personally take Indy if the line hits INDY +10. You never know, totally possible. I’m happy going 1-0 on a regular play on the Ravens, I think they were good enough to make it to the Super Bowl. Hats off to the Patriots yesterday. There was one stupid call: the one they didn’t call on Dez Bryant but called on Harbaugh, but I’m not as upset about that one because it was far from game-deciding. Still bullshit though…let the players play. for that trick play to Edelman. I happened to put Edelman in my fantasy team this week and got some nice points for him throwing a TD as a wide receiver. For me, that game was the Super Bowl. Incredibly fun to watch.
Packers vs Cowboys Betting Analysis
So close yesterday. Came down to LA, who lost by a goal in a shootout. Would have been around a +400 return. These parlays have been great, but that was a win I could have used. Coming THAT close kills me; just gotta keep the grind going though.
Nothing for today.
MINNESOTA +230
and
WINNIPEG +170
come close…
| Game | Score | Status | Pick | Amount |
| Cleveland | 84 | 9:00 PM ET | Sacramento -2.5 | 1.00 |
| Sacramento | 103 | WINNER! |
SYSTEM: Since 2009, Home Favorites off a home loss playing on Sunday are 86-18 (82.7% plus over 50 units) SU and 65-35-4 ATS.
A day of the week seems arbitrary; however, I’ve successfully used the parameter for many years now, especially in MLB. I think that there is a certain significance to some days over others, though: Sunday is the last day before the weekend is over. It correlates with attendance for the home team, rooting them on. A Wednesday, on the other hand, I think is arbitrary and would consider any system containing that as the product of normal variance. You decide, though….this is one I personally keep on me and it is active on the KINGS -2.5 today.
