NBA Raw Numbers Historical Performance Analysis

ByTom Herbert Posted on Last Updated
Infographic of NBA historical performance statistics and seasonal data trends.

Study version: 2.2 · Data coverage: 2015–2026 seasons · Latest included game: June 13, 2026 · Source: NBA Raw Numbers Results(1).xlsx

Interactive historical analysis of the ProComputerGambler NBA Raw Numbers ATS signal.

Primary as-filed result: The complete p:ATSm > 0 signal produced a 6,885-5,870-257 record, a 53.98% decisive win rate and +428.0 units at standardized −110 pricing.

Higher projected-margin thresholds are exploratory strength subsets, not replacements for the primary record.

Interactive Performance Dashboard

Record6,885-5,870-25713,012 selections
Win rate53.98%95% CI 53.11%–54.84%
Units / ROI+428.03.21% ROI
Risk profile129.2Drawdown · W14 / L12
Record6,377-5,362-24311,982 selections
Win rate54.32%Exploratory subset
Units / ROI+478.83.90% ROI
Risk profile126.5Drawdown · W14 / L11
Record5,859-4,827-22910,915 selections
Win rate54.83%Exploratory subset
Units / ROI+549.34.92% ROI
Risk profile105.6Drawdown · W14 / L10
Record4,862-3,855-1838,900 selections
Win rate55.78%Exploratory subset
Units / ROI+621.56.83% ROI
Risk profile85.1Drawdown · W13 / L11
Record3,918-2,929-1456,992 selections
Win rate57.22%Exploratory subset
Units / ROI+696.19.75% ROI
Risk profile76.0Drawdown · W12 / L11
Record2,967-2,023-975,087 selections
Win rate59.46%Exploratory subset
Units / ROI+741.714.28% ROI
Risk profile53.3Drawdown · W11 / L8

Cumulative standardized units

Annual endpoints for the complete primary signal.

+382015
+1602016
+2372017
+2562018
+3242019
+3332020
+3942021
+4412022
+4802023
+5322024
+4392025
+4282026

Season-by-season ROI

Workbook season labels; negative seasons remain visible.

+7.7%2015
+9.1%2016
+5.7%2017
+1.6%2018
+5.6%2019
+1.6%2020
+4.1%2021
+4.0%2022
+3.2%2023
+6.5%2024
-7.4%2025
-0.9%2026

Projection strength versus ROI

ROI increased as the historical projected-margin threshold rose.

3.2%> 0
3.9%> 0.5
4.9%> 1
6.8%> 2
9.7%> 3
14.3%> 4

Historical drawdown

Annual quarter-end drawdown snapshots; full-sequence maximum is 129.2 units.

02015
62016
22017
272018
02019
332020
252021
92022
132023
192024
1132025
1162026

Threshold Summary

RuleSelectionsRecordWin rateUnitsROI
p:ATSm > 013,0126,885-5,870-25753.98%+428.03.21%
> 0.511,9826,377-5,362-24354.32%+478.83.90%
> 110,9155,859-4,827-22954.83%+549.34.92%
> 28,9004,862-3,855-18355.78%+621.56.83%
> 36,9923,918-2,929-14557.22%+696.19.75%
> 45,0872,967-2,023-9759.46%+741.714.28%

Historical Raw Numbers Play Archive

The table below shows actual qualifying NBA Raw Numbers side plays from the current source workbook. The default archive rule is the same as the primary study rule: p:ATSm > 0. These are source rows, not reconstructed examples.

How to read the archive

Line is the stored betting line. OU is the stored game total. p:ATSm is the projected margin against the spread. ATSm is the realized margin against the spread. Positive ATSm values grade as wins, negative values as losses and zero as a push.

View the 25 most recent qualifying plays
DateRotTeamFinalLineOUp:ATSmATSmResult
06/13/2026510San Antonio Spurs90-5.5216.50.63-9.5Loss
06/08/2026505San Antonio Spurs1152.0216.511.006.0Win
06/03/2026501New York Knicks1054.5218.511.0014.5Win
05/30/2026568Oklahoma City Thunder103-3.5212.01.37-11.5Loss
05/28/2026563Oklahoma City Thunder913.5219.51.26-23.5Loss
05/26/2026560Oklahoma City Thunder127-5.5215.53.877.5Win
05/25/2026558Cleveland Cavaliers932.5217.511.00-34.5Loss
05/24/2026556San Antonio Spurs103-2.0218.52.0419.0Win
05/23/2026554Cleveland Cavaliers108-2.5215.56.48-15.5Loss
05/22/2026551Oklahoma City Thunder1232.0216.04.9817.0Win
05/21/2026550New York Knicks109-6.5216.01.189.5Win
05/19/2026545Cleveland Cavaliers1047.0216.51.28-4.0Loss
05/18/2026544Oklahoma City Thunder115-6.5220.09.41-13.5Loss
05/17/2026529Cleveland Cavaliers1254.5206.53.7935.5Win
05/15/2026526Minnesota Timberwolves1095.5219.011.00-24.5Loss
05/15/2026523Detroit Pistons1154.0210.011.0025.0Win
05/13/2026517Cleveland Cavaliers1174.0211.511.008.0Win
05/12/2026516San Antonio Spurs126-10.0218.511.0019.0Win
05/11/2026512Los Angeles Lakers11012.0214.59.547.0Win
05/11/2026509Detroit Pistons1033.5213.00.11-5.5Loss
05/10/2026507San Antonio Spurs109-4.5218.02.00-9.5Loss
05/10/2026506Philadelphia 76ers1141.0212.50.16-29.0Loss
05/09/2026503Oklahoma City Thunder131-8.5211.51.0014.5Win
05/09/2026501Detroit Pistons1094.5212.51.52-2.5Loss
05/08/2026574Minnesota Timberwolves1084.0216.56.07-3.0Loss

Archive scope: The current workbook contains 13,012 qualifying p:ATSm > 0 plays. The table above displays the 25 most recent source rows, while the complete archive is available on a dedicated searchable page.

View Full NBA Raw Numbers Archive →

Methodology

  • Primary rule: Numeric p:ATSm > 0 with numeric realized ATSm.
  • Grading: Positive ATS margin is a win, negative is a loss and zero is a push.
  • Units: +1.00 per win, −1.10 per loss and zero per push.
  • Scope: 26,054 team-level rows through June 13, 2026.

Data Integrity and Limitations

  • This is a historical model-output analysis from the supplied workbook, not an independent sportsbook audit.
  • Higher thresholds are retrospective exploratory subsets.
  • Standardized −110 pricing is used rather than reconstructed game-specific prices.
  • The visual charts use annual or quarter-end summaries; maximum drawdown is calculated from the full chronological sequence.

Related: Raw Numbers Dashboard · Raw Numbers Explained · Historical Performance